周三，澳元跌至0.650美元左右，结束了连续两个交易日的上涨，受到澳大利亚储备银行进一步降息的预期日益增长的压力。市场目前预计，7月份降息25个基点的可能性为97%，期货意味着到年底将总共降息75个基点，降至3.1%。这种情绪是在一系列疲软的经济数据之后出现的，包括第一季度GDP仅增长0.2%、消费者支出疲软和商业投资下降，这引发了人们对澳大利亚储备银行可能等待太久才采取行动的担忧。在今天晚些时候公布的美国关键通胀数据之前，美元走强，这可能会影响美联储的利率前景，这增加了压力。尽管如此，澳元仍接近年初至今的峰值，这得益于对美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪，该谈判继续支持风险情绪，并支撑着中国的代理货币。尽管细节尚未披露，但讨论达成了一项初步协议，以落实日内瓦共识，旨在缓解贸易紧张局势。
The Australian dollar slipped to around $0.650 on Wednesday, ending two consecutive sessions of gains, pressured by growing expectations of further rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Markets are now pricing in a 97% chance of a 25bps cut in July, with futures implying a total of 75bps of easing to 3.1% by the end of the year. This sentiment follows a string of soft economic data, including just 0.2% GDP growth in Q1, weak consumer spending, and falling business investment—raising concerns the RBA may have waited too long to act. Adding pressure, the US dollar firmed ahead of key US inflation data due later today, which could influence the Fed’s rate outlook. Still, the Aussie remains near its YTD peak, supported by optimism over US–China trade talks, which continue to support risk sentiment and underpin the China-proxy currency. Though details remain undisclosed, the discussions reached a preliminary deal to implement their Geneva consensus, aiming to ease trade tensions.
