美元/克罗地亚库纳 (USDHRK) 加自选

兴业银行预测：英镑将在2025年下半年挣扎，卖出英镑/日元目标189。英镑兑日元（GBP/JPY）汇率在6月下旬触及2025年高点198.80左右，中东担忧加剧，随后因油价下跌而跌至196.40左右，英镑也因国内预算担忧而下跌。法国兴业银行预计，随着日元净升值，英镑将在2025年下半年下跌。

SocGen Forecast: Pound will Struggle in H2 2025, Sell GBP/JPY Target 189.The Pound to Yen (GBP/JPY) exchange rate hit 2025 highs around 198.80 in late June amid a jump in Middle East fears before weakening to around 196.40 as oil prices have retreated with the Pound also losing ground amid domestic budget concerns. SocGen expects the Pound to lose ground over the second half of 2025 with net yen gains.

未来一周：不确定性是关税最后期限中的新确定性。随着美国就业数据现在被抛在脑后，本周市场的焦点转向了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在7月9日自行设定的互惠关税最后期限。

Week ahead: Uncertainty is the New Certainty Amid the Tariff Deadline.With US jobs data now in the rear-view mirror, the market's focus this week shifts to US President Donald Trump's self-imposed reciprocal tariff deadline on 9 July.

石油新闻：欧佩克产量激增会影响本周原油期货吗？。随着地缘政治风险缓解，欧佩克计划增加供应，以及下周交易前的需求信号仍然疲软，原油前景转为看跌。

Oil News: Will OPEC Production Surge Sink Crude Oil Futures This Week?.Crude oil outlook turns bearish as geopolitical risks ease, OPEC plans a supply hike, and demand signals remain weak ahead of next week's trade.

标准普尔全球埃及采购经理人指数从5月份的三个月高点49.5降至2025年6月的48.8，表明非石油私营部门的收缩幅度更大，尽管仍低于系列平均水平。最新数据也标志着连续第四个月下降，原因是新订单和产量下降更快。作为回应，企业连续第四个月减少采购活动，下降速度是近一年来最快的。6月份总库存停滞不前。就业人数连续第五个月下降，尽管裁员率很小，是当前序列中观察到的最疲软的。关于价格，投入成本通胀降至三个月低点，而产出成本通胀从5月份的七个月高点放缓。展望未来，商业信心降至历史最低水平，反映出对地缘政治风险的担忧导致对新订单的希望减弱。

The S&P Global Egypt PMI declined to 48.8 in June 2025 from May’s three-month high of 49.5, indicating a steeper contraction in the non-oil private sector, though it remained softer than the series average. The latest reading also marked the fourth straight month of decline due to faster falls in new orders and output. In response, firms reduced purchasing activity for the fourth consecutive month, with the pace of decline the fastest in nearly a year. Total inventories stalled in June. Employment fell for the fifth consecutive month, though the rate of job shedding was fractional and the softest observed in the current sequence. Regarding prices, input cost inflation eased to a three-month low, while output cost inflation slowed from May's seven-month high. Looking ahead, business sentiment weakened to the lowest on record, reflecting subdued hopes for new orders amid concerns over geopolitical risks.