美元/克罗地亚库纳 (USDHRK) 加自选

周五，金价触及每盎司3000美元的里程碑，这是由于避险情绪和美联储降息预期上升而创下的新高。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普多边贸易战的最新升级中，他警告称，在欧盟对美国威士忌出口征收50%的税后，将对欧洲葡萄酒和其他酒精饮料征收200%的关税。与此同时，最近的PPI和CPI数据表明，2月份的价格压力有所缓解，为美联储提供了更多降息空间，并增强了无收益黄金的吸引力。进一步支撑金属的是强劲的ETF需求和央行的持续购买，中国已连续第四个月扩大购买。本周，金价预计将上涨近3%。

Gold touched a $3,000 per ounce milestone on Friday, a fresh record high driven by risk aversion and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. In the latest escalation of US President Donald Trump’s multi-front trade war, he warned of a 200% tariff on European wine and other alcoholic beverages after the EU imposed a 50% tax on American whiskey exports. Meanwhile, recent PPI and CPI data signaled easing price pressures in February, giving the Fed more room to cut rates and boosting the appeal of non-yielding gold. Further supporting the metal are strong ETF demand and sustained central bank buying, with China extending its purchases for a fourth consecutive month. For the week, bullion is set for a gain of nearly 3%.

继上一季度上调18.6%后，2024年第四季度希腊建筑业产出同比增长23.6%。土木工程（第三季度为38.7%对24.5%）和建筑施工（18.9%对16.2%）的产量大幅增长。与此同时，专业建筑的产出增长进一步放缓（11.7%对15.5%）。按季度计算，12月季度建筑业产出跃升52%，从上一季度0.1%的跌幅反弹。

Construction output in Greece climbed by 23.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, following an upwardly revised 18.6% increase in the previous quarter. Production rose sharply for civil engineering (38.7% vs 24.5% in Q3) and building construction (18.9% vs 16.2%). Meanwhile, output growth slowed further for specialized construction (11.7% vs 15.5%). On a quarterly basis, construction output jumped by 52% in the December quarter, rebounding from a 0.1% fall in the preceding period.

2025年2月，黑山的年通货膨胀率为2.8%，与上月持平。这一数字仍处于2024年7月以来的最高水平，因为食品和非酒精饮料（1月份为0.7%对0.9%）、住房和公用事业（5.3%对4.7%）、酒精饮料和烟草（6.3%对5.2%）、健康（6.7%对3.2%）以及娱乐和文化（7.4%对6.8%）的价格上涨速度更快。与此同时，交通（1.4%对2.2%）、家具、家用设备和日常家居维护（4.6%对5.2%）、通信（6.3%对6.5%）、餐馆和酒店（6.6%对7%）以及杂项商品和服务（2.1%对2.8%）的成本有所下降。按月计算，2月份消费者价格指数从上月的1.2%降至0.4%。

The annual inflation rate in Montenegro stood at 2.8% in February 2025, unchanged from the previous month. The figure remained at its highest level since July 2024, as prices increased at a faster pace for food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.7% vs 0.9% in January), housing and utilities (5.3% vs 4.7%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.3% vs 5.2%), health (6.7% vs 3.2%), and recreation and culture (7.4% vs 6.8%). Meanwhile, costs moderated for transport (1.4% vs 2.2%), furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (4.6% vs 5.2%), communication (6.3% vs 6.5%), restaurants and hotels (6.6% vs 7%), and miscellaneous goods and services (2.1% vs 2.8%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices eased to 0.4% in February from 1.2% in the previous month.

2025年前两个月，流入中国的外国直接投资（FDI）同比下降20.4%，至约980亿元人民币，为2009年以来的最大降幅。这一结果是在2024年暴跌27.1%之后得出的，这是有记录以来外国直接投资的最大跌幅，数据可追溯到2008年。与前两个月相比，这一下降继续反映出外国对中国经济中最大项目的信心减弱，受到通货紧缩螺旋风险和政府推迟刺激反应的看法的压力。此外，制造商和服务提供商不透明的资产负债表让外国投资者感到不安。尽管如此，政府经济支持的迹象以及中国共产党可能放松对科技行业严格控制的暗示，在今年年初提高了人们对中国证券投资的信心，这可能会在今年晚些时候转化为更高的直接投资。

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flown into China sank by 20.4% from the previous year to about CNY 98 billion in the first two months of 2025, the sharpest decline on the period since 2009. The result followed the 27.1% slump in 2024, which was the sharpest decline in foreign direct investment on record with data going back to 2008. The decline from the first two months continued to reflect weaker foreign confidence into largest projects in the Chinese economy, pressured by risks of a deflationary spiral and the view that the government delayed in its stimulus response. Additionally, opaque balance sheets for manufacturers and service providers held the unease of foreign investors. Still, signs of economic support from the government and hints that the CCP may relax its tight control on the tech sector raised sentiment for portfolio investments in China at the turn of the year, potentially translating into higher direct investments later in the year.