11月,由于终端用户供应充足并退出市场,油菜籽期货价格跌至每吨600加元以下,在需求疲软的情况下创下一个月新低。随着特朗普新政府被视为不那么支持,对生物燃料行业需求减少的预期正在上升。特朗普提名的美国环保署署长Lee Zeldin预计将缩减可再生燃料标准计划,该计划要求美国运输燃料中的可再生燃料量达到最低。此外,在巴西有利天气的支持下,南美大型大豆作物正在对包括油菜籽在内的油籽造成看跌压力。虽然加拿大作物估计的潜在下调可能最终会支撑价格,但其中大部分可能已经被交易员定价。
Canola futures fell below CAD 600 per ton in November, marking a one-month low amid weak demand, as end users are well-supplied and stepping back from the market. Expectations of reduced demand in the biofuel sector are rising, as the new Trump administration is seen as less supportive. Lee Zeldin, Trump's nominee for EPA head, is expected to scale back the Renewable Fuel Standard Program, which mandates a minimum renewable fuel volume in U.S. transportation fuel. Additionally, large South American soybean crops, supported by favorable weather in Brazil, are contributing to bearish pressure on oilseeds, including canola. While a potential downward revision in Canada’s crop estimate might eventually support prices, most of this has likely already been priced in by traders.