欧元/土耳其里拉 (EURTRY) 加自选

警惕：法国政府面临崩溃，贝鲁面临预算信任投票的风险（9月8日）。法国总理贝鲁呼吁在9月8日就全面削减预算进行信任投票，主要反对党已经站出来反对他，法国少数派政府面临崩溃。政治不确定性扰乱了市场，推动法国债券息差扩大，并使CAC 40指数下跌。

Heads up: French government faces collapse as Bayrou risks budget confidence vote (Sept 8).France's minority government faces collapse as PM Bayrou calls a September 8 confidence vote on sweeping budget cuts, with major opposition parties already lined up against him. Political uncertainty rattled markets, pushing French bond spreads wider and knocking the CAC 40 lower.

周一，法国债券市场显示出新的紧张迹象，10年期国债收益率升至3.51%，为3月中旬以来的最高点。这一增长是在总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁宣布9月8日举行议会信任投票，寻求对其财政改革议程的支持之后出现的。7月中旬公布的2026年预算的核心是一项有争议的削减公共假日数量的提案，旨在提高生产力和解决该国不断增长的债务问题。来自左翼和右翼的批评使贝鲁容易受到不信任投票的影响，就像他的前任米歇尔·巴尼耶在2024年面临的那样，当时他在三个月后被免职。2024年赤字占GDP的5.8%，远高于欧盟3%的上限，法国正面临对其公共财政的重新审查。与此同时，市场参与者仍然关注美联储和欧洲央行的不同政策信号，同时等待8月29日公布的国内通胀数据。

France’s bond market showed fresh signs of strain on Monday, with the 10-year yield rising to 3.51%, a peak not seen since mid-March. The rise came after Prime Minister François Bayrou announced a parliamentary confidence vote for September 8, seeking support for his fiscal reform agenda. At the center of the 2026 budget, unveiled in mid-July, is a controversial proposal to cut the number of public holidays, aimed at boosting productivity and tackling the country’s mounting debt. Criticism from both the left and right has left Bayrou vulnerable to a no-confidence vote, just as his predecessor Michel Barnier faced in 2024, when he was removed after three months. With a deficit of 5.8% of GDP in 2024—well above the EU’s 3% ceiling—France is facing renewed scrutiny over its public finances. Meanwhile, market participants remained focused on divergent policy signals from the Federal Reserve and the ECB, while awaiting domestic inflation figures due on August 29.

随着投资者权衡欧洲央行政策、经济数据和贸易发展，欧元一直在1.166美元左右易手，距离7月1日1.18美元的四年高点不远。欧洲央行已经比美联储降息更多，现在表示暂停降息，政策制定者强调欧元区劳动力市场的实力。此外，德国企业士气在8月份创下15个月新高，与最近乐观的经济活动数据相呼应，并减轻了今年进一步削减的压力。相比之下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示美国将于9月降息，突显出政策分歧。与此同时，欧盟与美国协议的细节显示，大多数欧洲商品面临15%的关税，但汽车、药品和芯片可能不会受到美国更严厉的征税。

The euro has been changing hands around $1.166, not far from a four-year high of $1.18 on July 1, as investors weigh ECB policy, economic data, and trade developments. The ECB, which has already cut rates more than the Fed, now signaled a pause, with policymakers stressing Eurozone labor market strength. Also, German business morale hit a 15-month high in August, echoing recent upbeat activity data and reducing pressure for further cuts this year. In contrast, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a September US rate cut, highlighting policy divergence. Meanwhile, details of the EU-US deal showed most European goods facing 15% tariffs, but autos, pharmaceuticals, and chips may be spared from tougher US levies.

法兰克福DAX指数周一收于24273点，下跌约0.4%，扭转了前一交易日的涨势，前一交易日因对美联储可能恢复利率宽松周期的乐观情绪而引发。由于法国的政治消息和欧洲几个主要国家的通胀数据，市场情绪变得更加谨慎。法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁周一宣布，他将于9月8日要求议会进行信任投票，以获得对政府削减400多亿欧元支出计划的支持。在国内宏观方面，德国Ifo商业景气指数从7月的88.6升至8月的89，为2024年5月以来的最高水平，高于88.6的预测。在企业方面，跌幅最大的包括默克（-1.9%）、布伦塔格（-1.6%）、拜耳（-1.6%”）和巴斯夫（-1.5%”）。值得注意的是，在有报道称皮诺家族有意收购彪马后，彪马的股价飙升了16%。

The DAX in Frankfurt closed about 0.4% down at 24,273 on Monday, reversing gains from the previous session, which were sparked by optimism around possible resumption of the Fed's rate-easing cycle. Market sentiment turned more cautious due to political news from France and ahead of inflation data from several major countries in Europe. French Prime Minister François Bayrou announced on Monday that he will request a confidence vote in parliament on September 8 to gain backing for the government’s plan to reduce spending by over €40 billion. On the domestic macro front, Germany's Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 89 in August from 88.6 in July, the highest level since May 2024 and above forecasts of 88.6. On the corporate side, top decliners included Merck (-1.9%), Brenntag (-1.6%), Bayer (-1.6%) and BASF (-1.5%). Notably, Puma’s shares surged 16% after reports emerged that the Pinault family is interested in acquiring the company.