英磅/瑞典克朗 (GBPSEK) 加自选

人们普遍预计，欧洲央行周四将降息25个基点，使政策利率达到欧洲央行估计的中性区间的顶部。这将是自6月以来连续第六次降息，将关键存款利率降至2.25%。此举是在经济增长疲软、通胀疲软以及美国关税带来的不确定性之际做出的。欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德警告称，关税的影响可能会将欧元区今年的增长率从本已温和的0.9%削减一半。近期欧元走强、油价下跌和谨慎的消费者情绪正在给通胀增加下行压力。虽然欧盟-美国关税报复暂停90天提供了暂时的缓解，但欧洲央行仍然担心对投资和贸易的更广泛影响。拉加德最近表示，欧洲央行仍然保持警惕，并准备在必要时采取进一步行动，以确保价格和金融稳定。

The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing policy rates to the top of the ECB’s estimated neutral range. This would mark the sixth straight cut since June, lowering the key deposit rate to 2.25%. The move comes amid weakening growth, subdued inflation, and uncertainty from US tariffs. ECB President Christine Lagarde has warned that the tariff impact could slash Eurozone growth this year by half, from an already modest forecast of 0.9%. Recent euro strength, falling oil prices, and cautious consumer sentiment are adding downside pressure to inflation. While a 90-day pause in EU-US tariff retaliation offers temporary relief, the ECB remains concerned about the broader impact on investment and trade. Lagarde recently said that the ECB remains alert and ready to act further if needed to ensure both price and financial stability.

为什么日元在美日贸易争端中是错误的策略。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）希望日元兑美元走强的愿望几乎肯定会出现在华盛顿与日本正在进行的贸易谈判中，但分析人士表示，任何改变货币的努力都对双方都充满了风险。

Why the yen is the wrong gambit in any US-Japan trade row.U.S. President Donald Trump's desire for a stronger yen against the dollar is almost certain to figure into trade negotiations with Japan underway in Washington, but analysts say any effort to shift the currencies is fraught with risks for both sides.

周四，铜期货价格跌破每磅4.60美元，从两周高点回落，因对关税驱动的全球经济放缓的担忧再次打压市场情绪。白宫的一份声明引发了市场的不确定性，表明一些中国商品可能面临高达245%的关税，包括特朗普总统第一任期以来的现有和新提议的征税。尽管中国已表示对重启贸易谈判持开放态度，但据报道，它正在寻求更大的尊重、更明确的政策方向，以及在推进谈判之前，在特朗普总统的全力支持下指定一名美国谈判代表。与此同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔警告称，关税可能会加剧通货膨胀并抑制增长，使美联储的双重任务更加复杂。鲍威尔还重申，美联储并不急于降息，而是选择在做出任何政策改变之前等待更明确的情况。

Copper futures fell below $4.60 per pound on Thursday, retreating from two-week highs as renewed concerns over a tariff-driven global slowdown weighed on sentiment. A White House statement stirred market uncertainty, indicating that some Chinese goods could face tariffs of up to 245%, encompassing both existing and newly proposed levies dating back to President Trump’s first term. While China has signaled openness to renewed trade talks, it is reportedly seeking greater respect, clearer policy direction, and a designated U.S. negotiator with full backing from President Trump before moving forward. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariffs could exacerbate inflation and dampen growth, further complicating the Fed’s dual mandate. Powell also reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates, opting to wait for more clarity before making any policy changes.

瑞士的贸易顺差从上个月的43亿瑞士法郎扩大到2025年3月的53亿瑞士法郎。这标志着自2024年10月以来最大的贸易顺差，因为出口增长超过了进口。出口较上月增长12.6%，达到276亿瑞士法郎。与此同时，进口增长10.4%，达到223亿瑞士法郎。

Switzerland’s trade surplus widened to CHF 5.3 billion in March 2025 from CHF 4.3 billion in the previous month. This marked the largest trade surplus since October 2024, as exports rose more than imports. Exports increased by 12.6% from a month earlier to CHF 27.6 billion. Meanwhile, imports grew by 10.4% to CHF 22.3 billion.