欧元/俄罗斯卢布 (EURRUB) 加自选

中国的铜矿石进口量正从历史高点下降——德国商业银行。5月份，中国出口增长放缓的幅度比大多数分析师预期的要大。德国商业银行大宗商品分析师Carsten Fritsch指出，显然，对大多数关税的90天暂停并没有达到预期的效果。

China's Copper ore imports are falling from record highs – Commerzbank.China's export growth slowed more sharply than most analysts had expected in May. Apparently, the 90-day moratorium on most tariffs has not been as effective as anticipated, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

美国物价上涨速度低于预期，给美元带来压力。美国5月消费者价格指数上涨0.1%，低于预期的0.2%，连续四个月低于分析师的平均预测。总体指数和核心指数（不包括食品和能源）的年增长率分别为2.4%和2.8%。

Prices in the US Rising More Slowly than Expected, Putting Pressure on Dollar.Consumer prices in the US rose by 0.1% in May against the expected 0.2%, falling below analysts' average forecasts for four months in a row. The annual growth rate was 2.4% for the overall index and 2.8% for the core index (excluding food and energy).

欧元走高，打破长期趋势。整个月，单一货币一直呈现出当地跌幅越来越大的趋势。4月和6月初的增长势头触及了一个无形的软上限，接近1.15，但这似乎只是在大幅上涨之后和进一步增长之前的暂时调整。

Euro Making Its Way Up, Breaking a Long-Standing Trend.The single currency has been showing a trend of increasingly higher local declines throughout the month. Growth impulses in April and earlier in June hit an invisible soft ceiling approaching 1.15, but this appears to be only a temporary shake-up of positions after an impressive rise and before further growth.

受美元走软、国内财政路线图更加清晰以及全球贸易压力缓解的推动，巴西雷亚尔在6月份突破5.54美元，为八个月来的最高水平。美国通胀低于预期，5月份的CPI同比仅上涨2.4%，这提前了美联储的降息押注，并压低了美国国债收益率，削弱了美元的利差优势。在国内，财政部长费尔南多·哈达德（Fernando Haddad）同意“重新调整”IOF的增加，这是更广泛的一揽子计划的一部分，该计划还收紧了对以前免税投资的税收减免，这消除了对银行收益的潜在拖累，并突显了巴西对财政纪律的承诺。与此同时，有报道称，美中谈判代表在伦敦誓言要恢复日内瓦框架并取消稀土出口限制，这缓解了供应链问题，并提高了对巴西大宗商品出口商的需求预测。

The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.54 per USD in June, its strongest level in eight months, driven by a softer US dollar, clearer domestic fiscal roadmaps and easing global trade strains. Cooler-than-expected US inflation, May’s CPI rose just 2.4% year-on-year, has brought forward Fed rate-cut bets and pushed US Treasury yields lower, denting the dollar’s carry advantage. At home, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad’s agreement to “recalibrate” the IOF increase, part of a wider package that also tightens tax breaks on formerly exempt investments, has lifted a potential drag on bank earnings and underscored Brazil’s commitment to fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, reports that US–China negotiators in London vowed to revive the Geneva framework and lift rare-earth export curbs have alleviated supply-chain concerns and sharpened demand forecasts for Brazil’s commodity exporters.