欧元/俄罗斯卢布 (EURRUB) 加自选

欧洲央行的莱恩质疑公布经济情景的价值。欧洲央行首席经济学家Philip Lane周五表示，在欧洲央行的经济预测之外发布替代经济情景可能会带来更多问题，而不是解决问题。

ECB's Lane queries value of publishing economic scenarios.European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane argued on Friday that publishing alternative economic scenarios alongside the ECB's economic projections may raise more problems than it solves.

随着碳税的结束，加拿大4月份的通货膨胀率可能大幅下降。周二加拿大4月份的通胀数据将再次被税收变化扭曲，因为本月初取消了能源产品的消费者碳税。这建立在2024年12月至2025年2月期间联邦商品及服务税减免造成的先前扭曲之上。

Canadian Inflation in April Likely Saw a Big Drop as the Carbon Tax Ended.April's inflation reading for Canada on Tuesday will be distorted again by tax changes with the removal of the consumer carbon tax on energy products at the start of the month. This builds upon previous distortions caused by the federal GST tax break between December 2024 and February 2025.

原油价格展望——原油价格继续巩固。石油市场总体上继续巩固，因为我们正试图在这个时间点形成一个长期基础。从长远来看，市场对下行有点过度，因此我们正在寻找潜在的趋势变化。

Crude Oil Price Outlook – Crude Continues to Consolidate.The oil markets continue to consolidate overall, as we are trying to form a longer-term base at this point in time. The markets are a little overdone to the downside from a longer-term perspective, so we are looking for a potential trend change.

周五，Ibovespa指数下跌近1%，跌至138500点以下，从最近的历史高点回落，因为一系列企业发展和宏观经济担忧给市场带来了压力。巴西银行股价暴跌约12%，此前2015年第一季度净利润令人失望约20%，净资产收益率跌至2021年底以来的最低水平，而其他主要银行和零售商的混合收益加剧了金融业的拖累。巴西第一次商业农场禽流感爆发后，中国暂停进口巴西鸡肉60天，巴西肉品加工商也出现了亏损，尽管Marfrig的股价因合并协同效应飙升了20%以上。在采矿业，淡水河谷及其同行在铁矿石基准疲软和对中国增长前景的担忧再次出现的情况下让步。与此同时，由于有传言称巴西利亚将采取提高人气的措施，投资者对巴西的财政轨迹感到不安。尽管如此，Ibovespa指数仍有望每周上涨1%以上。

The Ibovespa slipped almost 1% to below the 138,500 level on Friday, retreating from its recent record high as a flurry of corporate developments and macroeconomic concerns weighed on markets. Banco do Brasil shares plunged some 12% after 1Q25 net income disappointed by roughly 20% and ROE tumbled to its weakest level since late 2021, while mixed earnings from other major banks and retailers added to financial-sector drag. Brazil’s meatpackers were also in the red after China’s 60-day suspension of Brazilian chicken imports following the country’s first commercial-farm bird-flu outbreak hit BRF and JBS, even as Marfrig’s shares soared more than 20% on merger synergies. In mining, Vale and its peers ceded ground amid softer iron-ore benchmarks and renewed concerns over China’s growth outlook. At the same time, investors grew uneasy about Brazil’s fiscal trajectory amid rumours of popularity-boosting measures in Brasília. Still, the Ibovespa was poised for weekly gains of over 1%.