棉花主力 (ZCE_CF) 加自选

周二，中国10年期政府债券收益率跌至1.77%以下，因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普更尖锐的关税言论引发贸易担忧，市场情绪变得谨慎。特朗普威胁称，如果中国限制稀土磁铁的出口，他将征收200%的关税，并补充说，华盛顿可以利用对飞机零部件的限制来对抗北京在该行业的主导地位。尽管在4月早些时候实施限制措施后，中国对美国的磁铁出口在6月和7月激增，但他还是发表了上述言论。分析人士警告称，这些威胁可能会扰乱将于11月到期的脆弱的贸易休战，而中国高级谈判代表李成钢将于本周前往华盛顿进行旨在缓解紧张局势的会谈。不确定性强化了避险需求，推低了收益率。

China’s 10-year government bond yield slipped below 1.77% on Tuesday, as sentiment turned cautious amid renewed trade concerns following US President Donald Trump’s sharper tariff rhetoric. Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs if China curbs exports of rare-earth magnets, adding that Washington could leverage restrictions on airplane parts to counter Beijing’s dominance in the sector. His remarks come despite Chinese magnet exports to the US surging in June and July after earlier curbs in April. Analysts warned the threats risk unsettling a fragile trade truce due to expire in November, while senior Chinese negotiator Li Chenggang is set to travel to Washington this week for talks aimed at easing tensions. The uncertainty reinforced safe-haven demand, pushing yields lower.

周二，上证综指下跌0.3%，收于3870点左右，而深证成分股上涨0.3%，收于12480点。由于新的贸易担忧打压市场情绪，内地股市表现喜忧参半。据报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普威胁称，如果中国未能向美国出口稀土磁铁，他将对中国征收“200%的关税或其他什么”。尽管最近出现了紧张局势，但中国股市本月大幅上涨，上证指数创下2015年以来的最高水平。分析人士指出，这一势头的部分原因是中国160万亿元的家庭储蓄从房地产转向股票，特别是在半导体和可再生能源等技术驱动的行业。各行业交易喜忧参半，中国北方稀土（-4%）和寒武纪科技（-3.4%）跌幅显著，而苏州TFC（+17.5%）和Takweb Information（+10%）强劲上涨。

The Shanghai Composite fell 0.3% to around 3,870 while the Shenzhen Component rose 0.3% to 12,480 on Tuesday, with mainland shares posting mixed performances as renewed trade concerns weighed on sentiment. US President Donald Trump reportedly threatened to impose “200% tariffs or something” on China if it failed to export rare-earth magnets to the US. Despite the latest tensions, Chinese equities have rallied sharply this month, with the Shanghai index hitting its highest level since 2015. Analysts note that part of the momentum has been driven by China’s 160 trillion yuan in household savings shifting away from real estate and into equities, particularly in technology-enabled sectors such as semiconductors and renewables. Trading was mixed across sectors, with notable losses from China Northern Rare Earth (-4%) and Cambricon Technologies (-3.4%), while Suzhou TFC (+17.5%) and Takweb Information (+10%) advanced strongly.

周二，在美元疲软的支撑下，离岸人民币兑美元汇率保持在7.15左右，接近四周多来的最高水平。在唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克后，美元面临压力，这加剧了人们对央行独立性的担忧，并强化了人们对早些时候降息的预期。本周早些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上也发表了温和的讲话，暗示9月份将降息。在全球贸易方面，特朗普警告称，中国必须向美国供应稀土磁铁，否则将面临高达200%的关税，同时还威胁要对维持数字税的国家征税，这可能会对人民币造成不利影响。与此同时，北京在4月份加强了稀土出口管制，对其在该行业的主导地位越来越敏感。

The offshore yuan held its recent gains to around 7.15 per dollar on Tuesday, trading close to its highest level in over four weeks, supported by weakness in the US dollar. The greenback came under pressure after President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, fueling concerns over central bank independence and reinforcing expectations of earlier rate cuts. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Powell also struck a dovish tone at the Jackson Hole Symposium, signalling a September rate cut. On the global trade front, Trump warned China must supply the US with rare-earth magnets or face tariffs of up to 200%, while also threatening levies on countries maintaining digital taxes, a potential downside for the yuan. Meanwhile, Beijing, which tightened export controls on rare earths in April, has grown increasingly sensitive over its dominance in the sector.

据国家发展和改革委员会（NDRC）称，中国将向加工贸易中的纺织企业分配20万吨滑动关税棉花进口配额，与去年的数量相匹配。配额将根据合同申请发放，直至达到上限，不接受进一步的提交。申请截止日期为12月31日，但该文件没有具体说明何时发放配额。中国是一个主要的棉花进口国，尽管国内产量可观，但一直位居全球最大买家之列。2022年，中国进口了价值82.9亿美元的棉花，主要来自美国、巴西和越南。配额调整之际，1月至7月棉花进口量急剧下降74.2%，至52万吨，反映出需求疲软和贸易条件收紧。新的配额旨在“满足国内加工商的棉花需求”，并稳定中国庞大纺织业的供应。

China will allocate 200,000 metric tons of sliding tariff rate cotton import quotas to textile firms in the processing trade, matching last year’s volume, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). Quotas will be issued based on contract applications until the cap is reached, with no further submissions accepted. The deadline for applications is December 31, though the document does not specify when quotas will be issued. China is a major cotton importer, consistently ranked among the top global buyers despite its sizable domestic production. In 2022, it imported USD 8.29 billion worth of cotton, mainly from the U.S., Brazil, and Vietnam. The quota move comes amid a sharp 74.2% drop in cotton imports to 520,000 metric tons from January to July, reflecting weaker demand and tighter trade conditions. The new quota aims to “meet cotton needs” of domestic processors and stabilize supply for China’s vast textile industry.