根据4月30日至5月1日的政策会议纪要，日本央行（BoJ）在美国关税政策的不确定性中采取了谨慎的立场。长期的高关税可能会促使日本出口商重组业务，包括将生产转移到美国并简化供应链，这可能会损害占日本就业人数70%的中小型企业。尽管在工资增长和劳动力市场紧张的支持下，到2027财年，通胀率预计将保持在2%的目标附近，但美国的关税可能会降低日本的经济增长和情绪，对潜在通胀造成下行压力。央行认为关税效应是短期冲击，对通胀或潜在增长的长期影响有限。然而，它强调了监测风险和不确定性的重要性。如果当前的经济和价格前景保持不变，日本央行计划继续逐步加息，同时对不断变化的情况保持灵活性。
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is adopting a cautious stance amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy, according to its April 30–May 1 policy meeting summary. Prolonged high tariffs could prompt Japanese exporters to restructure operations, including shifting production to the U.S. and streamlining supply chains, potentially harming small and medium-sized firms that make up 70% of Japan’s employment. While inflation is projected to stay near the 2% target through fiscal 2027, supported by wage growth and a tight labor market, U.S. tariffs could lower Japan’s economic growth and sentiment, exerting downward pressure on underlying inflation. The central bank sees tariff effects as short-term shocks with limited long-term impact on inflation or potential growth. Nevertheless, it stresses the importance of monitoring risks and uncertainties. If the current economic and price outlook holds, the BoJ plans to continue gradually raising interest rates, while remaining flexible to changing conditions.
