塞尔维亚BELEX15指数 (BELEX15) 加自选

2025年8月，塞尔维亚的经常账户赤字从去年同期的3.59亿美元扩大到3.95亿美元。商品赤字从2024年8月的5.63亿美元略微扩大到5.8亿美元，而服务盈余从1.44亿美元急剧缩小到5600万美元。初级收入赤字从3.81亿美元缩小到3.38亿美元，次级收入盈余从4.41亿美元增加到4.68亿美元。在2025年的前八个月，塞尔维亚的经常账户缺口扩大到26.8亿美元，而去年同期为20.5亿美元。

Serbia’s current account deficit widened to $395 million in August 2025, from a revised $359 million in the same month a year earlier. The goods deficit expanded slightly to $580 million from $563 million in August 2024, while the services surplus narrowed sharply to $56 million from $144 million. The primary income deficit narrowed to $338 million from $381 million, and the secondary income surplus increased to $468 million from $441 million. Over the first eight months of 2025, Serbia’s current account shortfall widened to $2.68 billion, compared with $2.05 billion in the same period last year.

继上个月下降4.6%之后，塞尔维亚颁发的建筑许可证数量在2025年8月同比下降1.4%，至2542份。在签发的许可证总数中，87.2%用于建筑，其余12.8%用于土木工程建设。仅就建筑物而言，85.6%的许可证发放给住宅建筑，14.4%发放给非住宅建筑。至于土木工程项目，大多数（80.3%）是管道、通信和电力线路。与此同时，新建筑工程占工程总预期价值的81.1%，贝尔格莱德地区的预期活动水平最高（45.0%），其次是Juznobanatska（7.5%）、Srednjobanatska（7.1%）、Severnobacka（4.1%）和Pomoravska（4.1%）。

The number of building permits issued in Serbia decreased by 1.4% year-on-year to 2,542 in August 2025, following a 4.6% drop in the previous month. Of the total permits issued, 87.2% were for buildings, while the remaining 12.8% were for civil engineering construction. When only buildings are concerned, 85.6% of permits were issued for residential buildings, and 14.4% for non-residential ones. As for civil engineering projects, the majority (80.3%) were for pipelines, communication, and electric power lines. Meanwhile, new construction works accounted for 81.1% of the total anticipated value of works, with the highest level of activity expected in the Beogradska region (45.0%), followed by Juznobanatska (7.5%), Srednjobanatska (7.1%), Severnobacka (4.1%) and Pomoravska (4.1%).

塞尔维亚的年通货膨胀率从上个月的4.7%降至2025年9月的2.9%，远低于市场预测的4.65%。最新数据为2021年4月以来的最低水平，主要原因是食品和非酒精饮料（1.7%对8月的7.8%）、家具、家用设备和维护（2.7%对4.6%）以及餐馆和酒店（6.6%对7.5%）的价格涨幅放缓。娱乐和文化（3.4%对3.7%）以及教育（4%对4.3%）的成本也有所下降。另一方面，住房和公用事业（3.2%对3%）以及交通（2.2%对0.1%）的通货膨胀加速。按月计算，9月份消费者价格指数下降1.6%，这是两年多来的首次下降，扭转了前一时期0.2%的涨幅。

The annual inflation rate in Serbia slowed to 2.9% in September 2025 from 4.7% in the previous month, well below market forecasts of 4.65%. The latest figure marked the lowest reading since April 2021, mainly driven by softer price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.7% vs 7.8% in August), furnishings, household equipment and maintenance (2.7% vs 4.6%), and restaurants and hotels (6.6% vs 7.5%). Costs also moderated for recreation and culture (3.4% vs 3.7%) and education (4% vs 4.3%). On the other hand, inflation accelerated for housing and utilities (3.2% vs 3%) and transport (2.2% vs 0.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices dropped by 1.6% in September, marking the first decline in over two years, reversing a 0.2% gain in the preceding period.

塞尔维亚国家银行在10月份将基准利率保持在5.75%，这是连续第13次保持不变。存款和贷款利率分别保持在4.5%和7.0%。8月份的总体通胀率为4.7%，这是由于恶劣天气导致的食品价格上涨，政府对批发和零售利润率的限制有助于将9月份的同比通胀率降至目标范围。预计明年通货膨胀率将保持在3±1.5%以内，尽管能源成本面临地缘政治紧张局势的上行风险。2025年上半年，国内生产总值平均同比增长2%，在汽车产量、出口和“迈向未来——2027年塞尔维亚博览会”等基础设施项目的支持下，预计下半年将加速增长。塞尔维亚国家银行表示将采取谨慎但稳定的方法，平衡通胀控制、经济增长和金融稳定，同时继续关注国际发展和国外央行政策。

The National Bank of Serbia kept its benchmark rate at 5.75% in October, marking the 13th consecutive meeting without a change. Deposit and lending facility rates remained at 4.5% and 7.0%, respectively. Headline inflation was 4.7% in August, driven by higher food prices caused by adverse weather, with a government cap on wholesale and retail margins helping ease year-on-year inflation in September toward the target range. Inflation is expected to remain within 3±1.5% over the next year, though energy costs face upside risks from geopolitical tensions. GDP grew an average 2% year-on-year in H1 2025, with growth expected to accelerate in H2, supported by automotive output, exports, and infrastructure projects like the "Leap to the Future – Serbia Expo 2027." The National Bank of Serbia signaled a cautious but steady approach, balancing inflation control, economic growth, and financial stability, while remaining attentive to international developments and central bank policies abroad.