塞尔维亚BELEX15指数 (BELEX15) 加自选

2025年1月，塞尔维亚的生产者价格通胀率同比加速至2.3%，为六个月来的最高水平，高于12月的1.2%，这是由于能源成本（1.8%对-0.7%）和中间产品（0.8%对0.0%）的反弹。资本品价格也以更快的速度上涨（6.3%对4.6%），而耐用消费品成本的下降速度放缓（-1.0%对-1.6%）。相比之下，非耐用消费品的通胀率从12月的3.2%降至2.8%。按月计算，生产者价格指数在12月持平后，1月上涨1.3%。

Serbia's producer price inflation accelerated to 2.3% year-on-year in January 2025, the highest in six months abd up from 1.2% in December, driven by a rebound in energy costs (1.8% vs -0.7%) and intermediate goods (0.8% vs 0.0%). Capital goods prices also rose at a faster pace (6.3% vs 4.6%), while the decline in durable consumer goods costs slowed (-1.0% vs -1.6%). In contrast, inflation for non-durable consumer goods eased to 2.8% from 3.2% in December. On a monthly basis, producer prices increased by 1.3% in January after remaining flat in December.

塞尔维亚的年通货膨胀率从上个月的4.3%上升到2025年1月的4.6%，大大高于市场预期，即通货膨胀率将保持在4.3%不变，这是自4月以来消费者价格的最大涨幅。在此期间，由于该地区能源和燃料成本上涨，交通的通货膨胀率更高（3.5%对2024年12月的3.5%），而食品和非酒精饮料（4.1%对4%）以及娱乐和文化（4.2%对4%）的成本也上涨更快。另一方面，餐馆和酒店的通胀放缓（9.4%对9.6%）。与上月相比，塞尔维亚消费者价格上涨9.6%，为10月以来的最高水平。

The annual inflation rate in Serbia rose to 4.6% in January of 2025 from 4.3% in the previous month, firmly above market expectations that they would remain unchanged at the 4.3% mark to indicate the sharpest rise in consumer prices since April. Inflation was higher for transportation (3.5% vs 3.5% in December 2024) amid the higher cost of energy and fuel in the region during the period, while costs also rose faster for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.1% vs 4%), and recreation and culture (4.2% vs 4%). On the other hand, inflation slowed for restaurants and hotels (9.4% vs 9.6%). From the previous month, Serbian consumer prices rose by 9.6%, the most since October.

2024年12月，塞尔维亚颁发的建筑许可证数量同比增长6%，达到2611份。在发放的许可证总数中，82.5%与建筑有关，17.5%与土木工程施工有关。仅就建筑物而言，82.3%的许可证与住宅有关，17.7%与非住宅有关，而在土木工程建设方面，与管道、通信和电力线有关的许可证数量最多（70.9%）。

The number of building permits issued in Serbia rose by 6% year-on-year to 2,611 in December 2024. Out of the total number of permits issued, 82.5% related to buildings and 17.5% to civil engineering construction. When only buildings are concerned, 82.3% of permits related to residential buildings, and 17.7% to non–residential ones, while regarding civil engineering constructions the largest number related to pipelines, communication and electric power lines (70.9%).

塞尔维亚国家银行在2025年2月将基准利率保持在5.75%不变，同时保持存款利率（4.5%）和贷款利率（7.0%）不变。自2024年9月以来，在6月、7月和9月三次降息25个基点后，该利率一直处于这一水平。政策制定者表示，尽管12月通胀稳定在4.3%，但地缘政治紧张局势和贸易保护主义等全球风险需要谨慎的货币政策。与此同时，在工业、服务业和基础设施项目的支持下，塞尔维亚的国内生产总值在2024年增长了3.9%。展望未来，该行预计通胀将保持在目标范围内，在2025年中期放缓。

The National Bank of Serbia kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.75% in February 2025, along with deposit (4.5%) and lending facility rates (7.0%). The rate has been at this level since September 2024, following three 25-basis-point cuts in June, July, and September. Policymakers said that despite inflation stabilizing at 4.3% in December, global risks like geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism require cautious monetary policy. Meanwhile, Serbia's GDP grew 3.9% in 2024, supported by industry, services, and infrastructure projects. Looking ahead, the bank expects inflation to stay within target, slowing mid-2025.