塞尔维亚BELEX15指数 (BELEX15) 加自选

塞尔维亚的年通货膨胀率从3月份的4.4%降至2025年4月的4%，为十个月来的最低水平，低于4.3%的预测。运输价格在3月份上涨1.3%后下跌1.7%，受个人运输设备燃料和润滑油价格暴跌6.5%的拖累。家具、家用设备和日常家居维护（5.3%对5.9%）、娱乐和文化（3.8%对3.9%）以及餐馆和酒店（8.1%对8.7%）的通货膨胀也有所放缓。另一方面，食品和非酒精饮料（5%对4.8%）、住房和公用事业（3.7%对3.6%）、通信（1.8%对1.6%）以及杂项商品和服务（3.9%对3.7%）的价格加速上涨。与上月相比，CPI在3月份上涨0.1%后，环比上涨0.3%。

The annual inflation rate in Serbia declined to 4% in April 2025, the lowest in ten months, from 4.4% in March and below forecasts of 4.3%. Prices of transport declined 1.7%, following a 1.3% rise in March, dragged down by a 6.5% plunge in prices for fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment. Inflation also slowed for furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (5.3% vs 5.9%), recreation and culture (3.8% vs 3.9%), and restaurants and hotels (8.1% vs 8.7%). On the other hand, prices accelerated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5% vs 4.8%), housing and utilities (3.7% vs 3.6%), communication (1.8% vs 1.6%), and miscellaneous goods and services (3.9% vs 3.7%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, after a 0.1% gain in March.

塞尔维亚国家银行（NBS）在2025年5月的会议上将基准利率稳定在5.75%，在通胀压力缓解和经济前景持续不确定性的情况下保持谨慎的货币政策立场。3月份通货膨胀率降至4.4%，预计将进一步下降，到年底接近3%的目标中点。这一前景得到了全球大宗商品价格下跌、核心通胀放缓和农业条件改善的支持。然而，由于全球市场波动、贸易政策不确定性和粮食投入成本居高不下，下行风险依然存在。2025年第一季度，塞尔维亚的国内生产总值同比增长2.0%，低于预期，因为外部需求疲软和国内中断影响了表现。尽管如此，在汽车行业反弹、新能源产能增加以及与2027年世博会相关的基础设施投资的推动下，经济活动预计将在今年晚些时候获得动力。

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) held its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75% during its May 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious monetary policy stance amid easing inflationary pressures and continued uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. Inflation slowed to 4.4% in March and is projected to decline further, approaching the 3% target midpoint by year-end. This outlook is supported by falling global commodity prices, moderating core inflation, and improved agricultural conditions. However, downside risks remain due to global market volatility, trade policy uncertainty, and persistently high food input costs. Serbia’s GDP grew by 2.0% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, missing expectations as weak external demand and domestic disruptions weighed on performance. Nonetheless, economic activity is expected to gain momentum later in the year, driven by a rebound in the automotive sector, new energy capacity additions, and infrastructure investments tied to Expo 2027.

塞尔维亚的生产者价格指数在2025年4月同比下降0.4%，标志着继上个月下降0.1%之后，连续第二个月出现通货紧缩。主要的下行压力来自采矿和采石业（-7.6%对3月份的-3.4%）和制造业（-1.1%对-0.8%）的生产者成本大幅下降。相比之下，供水、排污、废物管理和修复活动的价格上涨更快（20.9%对20.5%），而电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应的通货膨胀率保持不变（1.1%）。按月度计算，2025年4月生产者价格指数下降了0.1%，与前一个月的下降幅度相匹配。

Serbia's producer prices decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in April 2025, marking the second consecutive month of deflation, following a 0.1% drop in the previous month. The main downward pressure came from the sharper declines in producer costs for mining and quarrying (-7.6% vs -3.4% in March) and manufacturing (-1.1% vs -0.8%). In contrast, prices rose faster for water supply, sewerage, waste management, and remediation activities (20.9% vs 20.5%), while inflation remained unchanged in electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (at 1.1%). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 0.1% in April 2025, matching the decrease observed in the previous month.

2025年3月，塞尔维亚的工业生产同比增长6.9%，从上个月1.8%的下降中反弹。这标志着五个月来经济活动的最大增幅，主要得益于能源（16.5%）、中间产品（7.5%）、资本货物（4.3%）和非耐用消费品（1.2%）的产出增长。然而，耐用消费品的产量下降了10.3%。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，3月份工业产出增长0.5%。

Industrial production in Serbia jumped by 6.9% year-on-year in March 2025, rebounding from a 1.8% decline in the previous month. This marked the largest increase in activity in five months, driven by output gains in energy (16.5%), intermediate products (7.5%), capital goods (4.3%), and non-durable consumer goods (1.2%). However, production of durable consumer goods fell by 10.3%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output rose by 0.5% in March.