巴基斯坦卡拉奇100指数 (KSE100) 加自选

2025年5月，巴基斯坦批发价格同比上涨0.36%，从4月份的近十年低点-2.2%反弹，主要原因是食品、饮料、烟草、纺织品和皮革制品（4月份为7.9%对6.3%）以及金属制品、机械和设备（2.7%对2.1%）的价格上涨更为强劲。与此同时，几个类别的通货紧缩有所缓解，包括农业、林业和渔业（-0.4%对-7.8%）、矿石和矿产、电力、天然气和水（-7.3%对-8.1%）以及其他可运输商品（-3.5%对-4.1%）。按月计算，5月份批发价格持平，4月份下降1.29%。

Wholesale prices in Pakistan rose by 0.36% year-on-year in May 2025, rebounding from a near ten-year low of -2.2% in April, mainly driven by stronger price gains in food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, and leather products (7.9% vs. 6.3% in April), as well as metal products, machinery, and equipment (2.7% vs. 2.1%). At the same time, deflation eased across several categories, including agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-0.4% vs. -7.8%), ores and minerals, electricity, gas and water (-7.3% vs. -8.1%), and other transportable goods (-3.5% vs. -4.1%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices were flat in May, following a 1.29% decline in April.

巴基斯坦的年通货膨胀率在2025年5月升至3.5%，为五个月来的最高水平，从4月份记录的近60年低点0.3%大幅反弹。这一数字大大超过了财政部预测的1.5-2%，尽管仍远低于近年来的历史高点。这一增长是在巴基斯坦在国际货币基金组织70亿美元计划下经历脆弱复苏之际发生的，该计划导致税收增加和电价上涨。上涨压力来自食品和非酒精饮料（4月份为3.1%对-4.8%）、服装和鞋类（9.6%对9.1%）、餐馆和酒店（7.4%对6.3%）以及杂项商品和服务（15.4%对13.8%），而住房和公用事业（-2.5%对-2.6%）以及交通（-2.5%比-3.9%）的价格下跌有所缓和。按月计算，继4月份下降0.8%之后，5月份消费者价格指数下降了0.2%。这标志着自2021年1月以来首次出现连续两个月的通货紧缩。

Pakistan's annual inflation rate rose to 3.5% in May 2025, the highest in five months and a sharp rebound from the near six-decade low of 0.3% recorded in April. The figure significantly exceeded the Finance Ministry’s forecast of 1.5–2%, though it remains well below the record highs seen in recent years. The increase comes as Pakistan navigates a fragile recovery under the IMF’s $7 billion program, which has led to increased taxation and higher electricity tariffs. Upward pressure came from food and non-alcoholic beverage (3.1% vs. -4.8% in April), clothing and footwear (9.6% vs. 9.1%), restaurants and hotels (7.4% vs. 6.3%), and miscellaneous goods and services (15.4% vs. 13.8%), while price decreases moderated for both housing and utilities (-2.5% vs. -2.6%) and transport (-2.5% vs. -3.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices declined by 0.2% in May, following a 0.8% drop in April. It marked the first instance of two consecutive months of deflation since January 2021.

巴基斯坦经济在2025年第一季度同比增长2.4%，高于上一季度的1.5%，是三个季度以来最强劲的增长。这一扩张主要是由服务业推动的，服务业增长了4%（第四季度为2.6%），其中批发和零售贸易（1.6%对-1%）、信息通信技术（18.4%对8.7%）和公共行政（13.7%对9.3%）的增长领涨。农业部门也实现了1.2%（对0.8%）的增长，主要得益于林业产量的增加（4.3%对3.2%）。相比之下，工业部门仍然疲软，收缩1.1%（之前为-1%），因为采矿和采石业的进一步收缩（-4%对-2.3%）抵消了更强劲的制造业增长（1.6%对0.8%）。

Pakistan’s economy grew by 2.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, accelerating from 1.5% in the previous quarter and marking the strongest growth in three quarters. The expansion was largely driven by the services sector, which rose 4% (vs 2.6% in Q4), led by gains in wholesale and retail trade (1.6% vs -1%), ICT (18.4% vs 8.7%), and public administration (13.7% vs 9.3%). The agriculture sector also saw improved growth of 1.2% (vs 0.8%), mainly supported by higher forestry output (4.3% vs 3.2%). In contrast, the industrial sector remained weak, shrinking 1.1% (vs -1% previously), as a deeper contraction in mining and quarrying (-4% vs -2.3%) offset stronger manufacturing growth (1.6% vs 0.8%).

巴基斯坦证券交易所的基准KSE 100指数飙升至118600点，接近历史高点，自上周触及低点以来反弹了17%，因为巴基斯坦与印度的停火使投资者平静下来，并支持了两国风险较高的资产。停火是在空袭和飞机被击落后发生的，这促使印度和巴基斯坦都发誓要报复，将他们的冲突升级到几十年来的最高水平。国际货币基金组织提供额外支持的前景进一步提振了市场情绪，包括10亿美元的即时拨款和14亿美元的新气候适应计划。在货币方面，巴基斯坦国家银行上周出人意料地将其关键政策利率下调了100个基点，至11%，这是2025年的首次降息，并将借贷成本从22%的历史高点降至22%。零售贸易、公用事业和物流领涨，涨幅广泛。

The Pakistan Stock Exchange's benchmark KSE 100 index extended its surge to the 118,600 mark, close to its record high, and rebounding 17% since hitting lows last week as Pakistan's ceasefire with India calmed investors and supported riskier assets in both countries. The ceasefire took place after airstrikes and the shooting down of planes drove both India and Pakistan to vow retaliation, escalating their conflict to the highest in decades. Sentiment was further buoyed by the prospect of additional IMF support, including a $1 billion immediate disbursement and a new $1.4 billion climate resilience program. On the monetary front, the State Bank of Pakistan unexpectedly cut its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11% last week, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and bringing borrowing costs down from a record high of 22%. Gains were broad-based, led by retail trade, utilities, and logistics.