巴基斯坦卡拉奇100指数 (KSE100) 加自选

在印度和巴基斯坦周末达成停火协议后，巴基斯坦证券交易所的基准KSE-100在周一早盘交易中飙升近9%，至116868点。美国总统特朗普在经历了四天的激烈跨境交火和来自华盛顿的外交压力后，于周六宣布了喜马拉雅地区的停火协议。国际货币基金组织提供额外支持的前景进一步提振了市场情绪，包括10亿美元的即时拨款和14亿美元的新气候适应计划。在货币方面，巴基斯坦国家银行上周出人意料地将其关键政策利率下调了100个基点，至11%，这是2025年的首次降息，并将借贷成本从22%的历史高点降至22%。零售贸易、公用事业和物流领涨，涨幅广泛。然而，风险依然存在，因为印度尚未解除对《印度河水条约》的暂停，这可能会威胁到巴基斯坦的农业产出。

The Pakistan Stock Exchange's benchmark KSE-100 surged nearly 9% to 116,868 in early trading on Monday, following a weekend ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan. The truce in the Himalayan region was announced Saturday by U.S. President Trump after four days of heavy cross-border fire and diplomatic pressure from Washington. Sentiment was further buoyed by the prospect of additional IMF support, including a $1 billion immediate disbursement and a new $1.4 billion climate resilience program. On the monetary front, the State Bank of Pakistan unexpectedly cut its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11% last week, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and bringing borrowing costs down from a record high of 22%. Gains were broad-based, led by retail trade, utilities, and logistics. However, risks linger as India has yet to lift its suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, which could threaten Pakistan’s agricultural output.

巴基斯坦证券交易所的基准KSE 100周四暴跌至103000点，随后因巴基斯坦和印度之间的罢工可能引发两国战争而暂停交易。自上个月创下12万的历史新高以来，这一跌幅标志着16%的暴跌。印度空袭巴基斯坦领土一天后，拉合尔发生爆炸的报道促使巴基斯坦发誓进行报复，并加剧了对两国之间战争的担忧。新德里声称巴基斯坦领土是恐怖主义基础设施。冲突升级的风险与巴基斯坦经济正在从危机中复苏的迹象相吻合，而政府去年试图支持国际货币基金组织70亿美元贷款的财政和进展。尽管如此，在国际货币基金组织决定可能延长该国债务偿还期限之前，多个行业的股票从会期贷款中恢复。

The Pakistan stock Exchange's benchmark KSE 100 plunged toward the 103,000 mark on Thursday before trading was halted after strikes between Pakistan and India risked a war between both countries. The decline marked a 16% plunge since hitting the record high of 120,000 last month. Reports of explosions in Lahore one day after Indian air strikes in Pakistani territory, claimed to be terrorist infrastructure by New Delhi, drove Pakistan to vow retaliation and ramp up fears of a war between both countries. The risk of an escalated conflict coincided with signs that the Pakistan economy was on a road to recovery from its crisis, while the government attempts to shore up finances and progress on the $7 billion loan by the IMF last year. Still, stocks in multiple sectors recovered from session loans ahead of the IMF's decision on a possible extension to the country's debt payment.

巴基斯坦消费者信心指数从上个月的40.4升至2025年4月的40.6，为2024年6月以来的最高水平。对当前经济状况（41.3比3月的40.3）、预期收入（53.8比52.3）和购买耐用品的感知适宜性（36.0比35.1）的情绪有所改善。然而，消费者对未来经济状况的预期略有减弱（39.9比40.5）。此外，对未来六个月失业率的担忧有所缓解（69.4比70.2），通胀预期也有所下降（66.6比67.0），这是由于食品（66.0比66.9）和能源（65.3比68.6）的预期通胀率较低。

The consumer confidence indicator in Pakistan rose to 40.6 in April 2025, up from 40.4 in the previous month, marking the highest level since June 2024. Sentiment improved regarding current economic conditions (41.3 vs. 40.3 in March), expected income (53.8 vs 52.3), and the perceived suitability of purchasing durable goods (36.0 vs 35.1). However, consumer expectations for future economic conditions weakened slightly (39.9 vs. 40.5). Additionally, concerns about unemployment over the next six months eased (69.4 vs. 70.2), and inflation expectations also declined (66.6 vs. 67.0), driven by lower anticipated inflation for food (66.0 vs. 66.9) and energy (65.3 vs. 68.6).

巴基斯坦国家银行在5月份的会议上将其关键政策利率下调了100个基点，至11%，这让原本预计利率将保持在12%不变的市场感到惊讶。这标志着今年首次降息，在3月份短暂停顿后恢复了宽松周期，并使借贷成本从22%的历史高点下降。这一决定是在印度管理的克什米尔发生致命袭击游客事件后，与邻国印度的紧张局势加剧之际作出的。通货膨胀率继续呈下降趋势，4月份连续第六个月降至0.3%，为1968年8月以来的最低水平，主要原因是电价降低和食品价格持续下跌。在增长方面，25财年第二季度实际GDP同比增长1.7%，而第一季度的增长率从之前的0.9%上调至1.3%。政策制定者承诺，在贸易紧张局势和地缘政治风险引发的持续全球不确定性中，将保持谨慎的货币政策。

The State Bank of Pakistan cut its key policy rate by 100 bps to 11% at its May meeting, surprising markets that had expected the rate to remain unchanged at 12%. This marks the first rate cut of the year, resuming the easing cycle after a brief pause in March and bringing borrowing costs down from a record high of 22%. The decision comes amid heightened tensions with neighboring India following a deadly attack on tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir. Inflation continued its downward trend, easing for the sixth consecutive month to just 0.3% in April—the lowest rate since August 1968—driven largely by reduced electricity tariffs and sustained declines in food prices. On the growth front, real GDP grew by an estimated 1.7% year-on-year in Q2 FY25, while Q1 growth was revised upward to 1.3% from a previous estimate of 0.9%. Policymakers pledged to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy amid persistent global uncertainty driven by trade tensions and geopolitical risks.