巴基斯坦卡拉奇100指数 (KSE100) 加自选

穆迪全球评级周三将巴基斯坦的信用评级从“Caa2”上调至“Caa1”，并将前景从积极调整为稳定，理由是外部财务状况有所改善。该机构在一份声明中表示：“升级到Caa1反映了巴基斯坦在国际货币基金组织扩展基金机制（EFF）计划下改革实施进展的支持下，其外部地位的改善。”。穆迪决定将巴基斯坦的评级上调一个等级，此前标准普尔全球评级公司于7月24日决定将巴基斯坦评级从CCC+上调至B-。此前，惠誉评级在4月份也将巴基斯坦的评级从CCC+上调至B-。标普和惠誉对巴基斯坦的前景都保持稳定。巴基斯坦表示，在国际货币基金组织70亿美元的救助帮助其稳定后，其经济正在复苏。

Moody's Global Ratings upgraded Pakistan's credit rating on Wednesday to "Caa1" from "Caa2", with the outlook revised to stable from positive, citing an improving external financial position. "The upgrade to Caa1 reflects Pakistan’s improving external position, supported by its progress in reform implementation under the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program," the agency said in a statement. Moody’s decision to raise Pakistan's rating by one notch follows S&P Global Ratings' decision on July 24 to upgrade Pakistan's rating to B- from CCC+. Previously, Fitch Ratings, in April, also upgraded its rating of Pakistan to B- from CCC+. Both S&P and Fitch maintain a stable outlook on Pakistan. Pakistan says its economy is on a recovery path after a USD 7 billion IMF bailout helped stabilize it.

2025年7月，巴基斯坦批发价格同比下降0.49%，与上月0.58%的涨幅相反。下降的原因是其他可运输商品（-3.41%对-0.84%）以及农业、林业和渔业（-1.60%对-1.56%）的通货紧缩加剧。与此同时，食品、饮料、烟草、纺织品和皮革制品（4.37%对8.63%）以及金属制品、机械和设备（0.48%对1.01%）的价格涨幅放缓。相比之下，矿产、电力、天然气和水的通货紧缩有所缓解（-3.41%对-8.41%）。7月份批发价格环比上涨1.19%，高于6月份的0.59%。

Pakistan’s wholesale prices declined 0.49% year-on-year in July 2025, reversing from a 0.58% increase in the previous month. The decline was driven by deeper deflation in other transportable goods (-3.41% vs. -0.84%) and agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-1.60% vs. -1.56% in June). Meanwhile, price gains slowed in food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, and leather products (4.37% vs. 8.63%) and in metal products, machinery, and equipment (0.48% vs. 1.01%). In contrast, deflation eased in minerals, electricity, gas, and water (-3.41% vs. -8.41%). On a monthly basis, wholesale prices rose 1.19% in July, up from a 0.59% gain in June.

巴基斯坦7月份的年通货膨胀率从前一个月的3.2%加速至4.1%，为2024年12月以来的最高水平。价格上涨主要是由于住房和公用事业的反弹（3.6%对-3.3%）以及交通的进一步上涨（2.7%对0.6%）。然而，这些增长部分被食品和非酒精饮料（0.9%对2.6%）、服装和鞋类（8.4%对9.0%）、酒精饮料和烟草（3.7%对5.1%）、家具和家用设备维护（3.3%对3.7%）、健康（10.8%对12.2%）、餐馆和酒店（7.7%对8.4%）以及杂项商品和服务（14.9%对15.3%）的价格增长放缓所抵消。此外，娱乐和文化价格进一步下跌（-1.5%对-1.0%）。按月计算，7月份消费者价格指数大幅上涨2.9%，高于6月份的0.2%。

Pakistan’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 4.1% in July from 3.2% in the previous month, marking the highest level since December 2024. The uptick in prices was mainly driven by a rebound in housing and utilities (3.6% vs. -3.3%) and a further rise in transport (2.7% vs. 0.6%). However, these increases were partly offset by slower price growth in food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.9% vs. 2.6%), clothing and footwear (8.4% vs. 9.0%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.7% vs. 5.1%), furnishing and household equipment maintenance (3.3% vs. 3.7%), health (10.8% vs. 12.2%), restaurants and hotels (7.7% vs. 8.4%), and miscellaneous goods and services (14.9% vs. 15.3%). In addition, prices in recreation and culture fell further (-1.5% vs. -1.0%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose sharply by 2.9% in July, up from a 0.2% increase in June.

巴基斯坦国家银行在7月份将基准政策利率维持在11%不变，将借贷成本维持在2022年3月以来的最低水平。这一决定令市场感到意外，鉴于通胀持续放缓，支持经济增长的呼声越来越高，市场普遍预计会再次降息。6月份消费者价格通胀率从5月份的3.5%降至3.2%，与政府预测的3%至4%的范围一致。在截至6月30日的财政年度，平均通货膨胀率降至4.49%的九年低点，比上一年的23.4%大幅下降。然而，在进口增加和货币再次面临压力的情况下，SBP发出了谨慎的信号，这可能会重新引发通胀风险。央行于2024年6月开始宽松周期，将利率从创纪录的22%下调。在经历了一系列10个基点的降息后，SBP在2025年3月短暂停顿，随后在5月恢复宽松，降息100个基点，但在6月伊朗和以色列之间的紧张局势下再次保持稳定。

The State Bank of Pakistan left its benchmark policy rate unchanged at 11% in July, maintaining borrowing costs at their lowest level since March 2022. The decision surprised markets, which had widely expected another cut, given the continued moderation in inflation and increasing calls to support economic growth. Consumer price inflation eased to 3.2% in June, down from 3.5% in May, aligning with the government’s projected range of 3% to 4%. For the fiscal year ending June 30, average inflation fell to a nine-year low of 4.49%, a sharp decline from 23.4% the previous year. However, the SBP signaled caution amid rising imports and renewed pressure on the currency, which could reignite inflationary risks. The central bank began its easing cycle in June 2024, cutting rates from a record 22%. After a brief pause in March 2025 following a series of 10 bps cuts, the SBP resumed easing with a 100 bps cut in May, but held steady again in June amid tensions between Iran and Israel.