美国标准普尔500指数 (USSPX500) 加自选

2025年9月，美国的年通货膨胀率可能连续第二个月加速至3.1%，高于8月的2.9%，这将是2024年5月以来的最高水平。预计这一回升将反映食品和受关税影响的商品价格上涨，以及服务业通胀缓解速度低于预期，特别是在住房方面。与此同时，核心通胀率预计将稳定在3.1%，月度整体和核心CPI读数分别保持在0.4%和0.3%不变，这表明与关税相关的价格压力仍然受到控制。原定于10月15日发布的CPI报告因政府停摆而推迟。然而，美国劳工统计局召回了一部分休假员工，以确保数据的公布。

The annual inflation rate in the US likely accelerated for a second consecutive month to 3.1% in September 2025, up from 2.9% in August, which would mark the highest level since May 2024. The pickup is expected to reflect higher prices for food, and tariff-affected goods, as well as a slower-than-expected easing of service-sector inflation, particularly in housing. Meanwhile, core inflation is projected to hold steady at 3.1%, with monthly headline and core CPI readings seen unchanged at 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, suggesting that tariff-related price pressures remain contained. The CPI report, originally scheduled for release on October 15, was delayed due to the government shutdown. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled a portion of its furloughed staff to ensure the data’s publication.

美国CPI和PMI将引导市场度过停摆。延迟的美国9月CPI将于欧洲中部时间14:30发布。我们预测整体CPI将从2.9%降至3.1%，核心CPI通胀率将从3.1%降至3.1%。

US CPI and PMIs to Guide Markets Through Shutdown.The delayed US September CPI is set to be released at 14:30 CET. We forecast headline CPI at 3.1% y/y from 2.9% and core CPI inflation at 3.1% y/y from 3.1%.

唐纳德·特朗普总统周四宣布，美国将终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判，并援引安大略省政府播出的一则有争议的广告。该广告刊登了前总统罗纳德·里根批评关税的编辑言论，特朗普和罗纳德·里根总统基金会声称这些言论未经许可使用，并歪曲了里根1987年的原始广播讲话。在Truth Social的一篇帖子中，特朗普指责加拿大使用“虚假”广告“干涉美国最高法院和其他法院的裁决”。他强调，“关税对美国的国家安全和经济非常重要”，并宣布“特此终止与加拿大的所有贸易谈判”

President Donald Trump announced Thursday that the U.S. is terminating all trade negotiations with Canada, citing a controversial ad aired by Ontario’s provincial government. The ad featured edited remarks from former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs, which Trump and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation claim were used without permission and misrepresented Reagan’s original 1987 radio address. In a Truth Social post, Trump accused Canada of using a “FAKE” ad to “interfere with the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court, and other courts.” He emphasized, “TARIFFS ARE VERY IMPORTANT TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY, AND ECONOMY, OF THE U.S.A,” and declared, “ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”

周五，美国10年期国债收益率在上一交易日上涨约5个基点后保持在4%左右，因为投资者正在为一份可能影响经济和利率前景的关键通胀报告做准备。由于政府持续停摆，该报告被推迟，预计将显示持续的价格压力，但不太可能阻止美联储下周降息。然而，高于预期的读数可能会通过抑制对进一步宽松政策的预期来影响美联储12月的决定。在白宫确认下周在韩国举行特朗普-Xi会议后，交易员们也密切关注贸易发展，美国和中国官员计划周末在马来西亚举行预备会谈。

The US 10-year Treasury yield held around 4% on Friday after gaining about 5 basis points in the previous session, as investors braced for a crucial inflation report that could shape the outlook for the economy and interest rates. The report, delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, is expected to show persistent price pressures but is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve from cutting rates next week. However, a stronger-than-expected reading could affect the Fed’s December decision by curbing expectations for additional easing. Traders also kept a close eye on trade developments after the White House confirmed the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea next week, with US and Chinese officials scheduled to hold preparatory talks in Malaysia over the weekend.