牙买加股票指数 (JSE) 加自选

牙买加经济在2024年第四季度同比收缩0.8%，此前一季度修正后下降了3.3%。这标志着自疫情以来首次连续出现季度收缩，原因是农业、林业和渔业（第三季度为-10.6%对-12.5%）、采矿和采石业（-2.3%对-17.4%）、公用事业（-1.4%对-5.8%）、酒店和餐馆（-0.3%对-4.9%）以及制造业（-0.5%对-4.0%）等几个行业大幅下降。与此同时，建筑业继续下降，但速度较慢（-2.7%对-3.3%），而批发和零售业略有反弹（0.2%对-3.0%）。经季节性调整的季度数据显示，牙买加经济在第四季度增长了1.4%，从第三季度1.5%的下滑中反弹。

The economy of Jamaica contracted by 0.8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a revised decline of 3.3% in the previous quarter. This marks the first back-to-back quarterly contractions since the pandemic, driven by sharp declines in several sectors, including agriculture, forestry, and fishing (-10.6% vs. -12.5% in Q3), mining and quarrying (-2.3% vs. -17.4%), utilities (-1.4% vs. -5.8%), hotels and restaurants (-0.3% vs. -4.9%), and manufacturing (-0.5% vs. -4.0%). Meanwhile, construction continued to decline but at a slower pace (-2.7% vs. -3.3%), while wholesale and retail trade rebounded slightly (0.2% vs. -3.0%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the Jamaican economy expanded by 1.4% in Q4, rebounding from the 1.5% downturn from Q3.

牙买加银行在2025年3月的会议上将其货币政策利率维持在6%不变，因为牙买加主要贸易伙伴的经济政策不确定性日益增加。董事会认为，这一立场将支持通胀在未来两年内保持在目标范围内。通货膨胀已经稳定下来，2025年2月的整体通货膨胀率为4.4%，低于一年前的6.2%，核心通货膨胀率为3.8%，继续保持温和的趋势。通货膨胀的减少是由稳定的汇率、进口通货膨胀的减少和商品价格的下跌推动的。货币政策委员会预计通胀将保持稳定，除非有任何外部冲击，尽管它承认全球贸易政策变化，特别是美国和其他主要经济体的潜在风险。日本央行仍然致力于维护稳定，如果通货膨胀因这些不确定性而偏离目标，日本央行准备调整其政策立场。

The Bank of Jamaica left its monetary policy rate unchanged at 6% in its March 2025 meeting, amid rising uncertainty over economic policies in Jamaica's key trading partners. The Board believes this stance will support inflation staying within the target range over the next two years. Inflation has stabilized, with headline inflation at 4.4% in February 2025, down from 6.2% a year earlier, and core inflation at 3.8%, continuing a trend of moderation. This reduction in inflation was driven by stable exchange rates, reduced imported inflation, and lower commodity prices. The MPC expects inflation to remain stable, barring any external shocks, though it acknowledged potential risks from global trade policy changes, particularly from the United States and other major economies. The BOJ remains committed to preserving stability and is ready to adjust its policy stance if inflation deviates from the target due to these uncertainties.

牙买加银行决定在202g年2月将其货币政策利率维持在6%，重点是确保通货膨胀率保持在目标范围内，同时支持经济增长。日本央行承认通胀趋势有所改善，但强调了大宗商品价格波动和全球经济因素等外部风险。它仍然致力于监测通货膨胀的发展，并在必要时进行政策调整，以确保持续稳定。央行的谨慎立场反映了其在通胀控制与整体经济稳定之间取得平衡的努力。

The Bank of Jamaica decided to maintain its monetary policy rate at 6% in February 202g, focusing on ensuring inflation stays within target while supporting economic growth. The BOJ acknowledged improved inflation trends, yet highlighted external risks such as commodity price volatility and global economic factors. It remains committed to monitoring inflation developments and making policy adjustments as necessary to ensure continued stability. The central bank's cautious stance reflects its effort to balance inflation control with overall economic stability.

与2023年同期相比，牙买加经济在2024年第三季度下降了3.5%。这是自2021年3月以来最大的收缩，服务业和商品生产业都导致了经济衰退。服务业收缩2.2%，而商品生产行业则大幅下降7.2%。2024年7月飓风贝里尔的影响是一个主要因素，特别是对农业、林业和渔业以及采矿和采石业的影响。风暴对农作物造成了严重破坏，推迟了种植，扰乱了收割，同时一家重要的氧化铝生产厂也受到了严重影响。此外，牙买加公共服务公司的基础设施受损导致停电，减少了电力和水的消耗，对电力、供水和其他服务部门产生了负面影响。经季节性调整后，经济环比收缩1.7%，较之前0.7%的跌幅有所恶化。

The Jamaican economy saw a 3.5% decline in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. It was the biggest contraction since March 2021, with both the Services and Goods Producing sectors contributing to the downturn. The Services sector contracted by 2.2%, while the Goods Producing Industries saw a steeper decline of 7.2%. The impact of Hurricane Beryl in July 2024 was a major factor, particularly affecting the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, and Mining & Quarrying industries. The storm caused extensive damage to crops, delayed planting, and disrupted harvesting, while a key alumina-producing plant was also heavily affected. In addition, infrastructure damage to the Jamaica Public Service Company led to power outages, reducing electricity and water consumption, which negatively impacted the Electricity, Water Supply, and Other Services sectors. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy contracted 1.7% quarter-on-quarter, worsening from a 0.7% decline previously.