牙买加股票指数 (JSE) 加自选

牙买加银行在8月份连续第三次会议将政策利率维持在5.75%不变，理由是通货膨胀率低和外汇市场稳定。7月份的总体通胀率为3.3%，低于世界银行的4-6%目标范围，而核心通胀率为4.3%，这得益于能源成本下降、农业供应改善和电费降低。货币政策委员会预计，未来几个月通货膨胀率将保持在目标以下，然后逐渐上升到区间的中心。在强劲的汇款、不断增加的旅游人数和61亿美元的历史最高国际储备的支持下，国内经济继续表现出韧性。2025/26财年的实际GDP增长预计为1-3%，受农业、采矿业和旅游业的推动，随后几年将正常化为1-2%。委员会重申其维持价格和市场稳定的承诺，并将在全球持续存在不确定性的情况下根据需要调整政策。

The Bank of Jamaica left its policy rate unchanged at 5.75% in August for the third consecutive meeting, citing low inflation and a stable foreign exchange market. Headline inflation in July stood at 3.3%, below the Bank’s 4–6% target range, while core inflation was 4.3%, supported by lower energy costs, improved agricultural supplies, and reduced electricity charges. The MPC expects inflation to remain below target over the coming months before gradually rising toward the center of the range. The domestic economy continues to show resilience, backed by strong remittances, increasing tourism arrivals, and historically high international reserves of US$6.1 billion. Real GDP growth for FY2025/26 is projected at 1–3%, driven by agriculture, mining, and tourism, before normalizing at 1–2% in subsequent years. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining price and market stability and will adjust policy as needed amid ongoing global uncertainties.

牙买加经济在2025年第一季度同比增长1.1%，从2024年第四季度0.8%的收缩中反弹。复苏是由商品生产增长2.0%推动的，所有生产部门都有所增长——制造业（+1.7%）、建筑业（+1.4%）、采矿和采石业（+0.7%）以及农业（+3.1%）。此外，服务业增长了0.8%，这得益于大多数行业的增长。然而，批发和零售贸易、机械维修和安装（-0.8%）以及房地产和商业活动（-0.4%）的下降部分抵消了这一影响。

The economy of Jamaica expanded by 1.1% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, rebounding from a 0.8% contraction in Q4 2024. The recovery was driven by a 2.0% increase in goods production, with all productive sectors posting gains — manufacturing (+1.7%), construction (+1.4%), mining and quarrying (+0.7%), and agriculture (+3.1%). In addition, the services sector grew by 0.8%, supported by increases across most industries. However, this was partially offset by declines in wholesale & retail trade, repair and installation of machinery (-0.8%), and real estate & business activities (-0.4%).

牙买加银行在6月份的会议上将政策利率维持在5.75%，表示目前的立场仍然适合在未来两年内将通货膨胀率保持在4.0%-6.0%的目标范围内。这一决定是在全球不确定因素下做出的，包括贸易政策的转变、地缘政治紧张局势和主要经济体的利率变动。尽管通胀前景的风险向上倾斜，但通胀保持稳定，2025年5月的年度整体通胀率为5.2%，与去年同期持平，核心通胀率为4.6%。谷物、液化天然气和石油的国际价格下跌有助于缓解通胀压力，尽管地缘政治的发展可能会扭转这一趋势。日本央行重申其对价格稳定的承诺，并将继续密切监测数据，随时准备根据需要调整政策。

The Bank of Jamaica held its policy rate at 5.75% during its June meetings, stating the current stance remains appropriate to keep inflation within the 4.0–6.0% target range over the next two years. The decision comes amid global uncertainties, including shifting trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and interest rate movements in major economies. While risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside, inflation has remained stable, with annual headline inflation at 5.2% in May 2025—unchanged from a year earlier—and core inflation at 4.6%. Declining international prices for grains, LNG, and oil have helped ease inflationary pressure, though geopolitical developments could reverse this trend. The BOJ reaffirmed its commitment to price stability and will continue to monitor data closely, ready to adjust policy as needed.

牙买加银行在2025年5月的会议上将其货币政策利率下调25个基点至5.75%，同时整体通胀率仍在4.0-6.0%的目标范围内。2025年4月，年度整体通胀率上升至5.3%，与2024年4月的结果一致，而核心通胀率（不包括农产品和燃料）保持在4.4%。国内经济在年初显示出温和的改善，在上一季度收缩后，2025年第一季度实际GDP环比增长0.2%。在稳定的汇率和全球大宗商品价格下跌的支撑下，进口通胀仍得到控制。通胀预期和外汇市场总体保持稳定。展望未来，假设油价温和下跌和通胀预期稳定，预计未来两年整体通胀将趋向于目标区间的下半部分。

The Bank of Jamaica reduced its monetary policy rate by 25 bps to 5.75% in its May 2025 meeting, amid continued headline inflation tracking within the 4.0–6.0% target range. Annual headline inflation rose to 5.3% in April 2025, in line with April 2024’s outturn, while core inflation (excluding agricultural food products and fuel) held at 4.4%. The domestic economy showed modest improvement early in the year, with real GDP expanding by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025 after a contraction in the prior quarter. Imported inflation remained contained, supported by stable exchange rates and lower global commodity prices. Inflation expectations and the foreign exchange market have been broadly stable. Looking ahead, headline inflation is projected to trend toward the lower half of the target range over the next two years, assuming moderate oil price declines and steady inflation expectations.