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早盘报价：美国CPI中发现关税印记。Kevin Buckland展望欧洲和全球市场未来一天

Morning Bid: Tariff imprint spied in US CPI.A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland

周三，美国10年期国债收益率保持在4.48%以上，接近五周高点，因为投资者正在等待最新的生产者价格指数数据，以进一步了解特朗普政府关税对通胀的影响。周二，在消费者通胀数据喜忧参半导致交易员降低对美联储降息的预期后，收益率攀升。总体通胀与月度和年度预测相符，而核心通胀低于预期。达拉斯联邦储备银行行长洛里·洛根表示，在关税驱动的价格压力下，央行可能需要在较长一段时间内保持利率稳定，以确保通胀得到控制，这加剧了谨慎的前景。市场现在预计今年多次降息的可能性降低，9月份降息的可能性略高于50%。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held above 4.48% on Wednesday, remaining near a five-week high as investors awaited the latest producer price index data for further clues on the inflationary impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs. Yields climbed on Tuesday after mixed consumer inflation data led traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Headline inflation matched forecasts on both a monthly and annual basis, while core inflation came in softer than expected. Adding to the cautious outlook, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the central bank will likely need to keep rates steady for an extended period to ensure inflation remains contained amid tariff-driven price pressures. Markets are now pricing in reduced odds of multiple rate cuts this year, with the probability of a move in September hovering just above 50%.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率在上一交易日触及七周高点后跌至4.41%，投资者将注意力转向即将公布的就业数据。市场预计将增加2万个工作岗位，失业率稳定在4.1%。劳动力市场保持了令人惊讶的弹性，这促成了澳大利亚储备银行对货币宽松政策的谨慎立场。上周，澳大利亚储备银行将现金利率稳定在3.85%，将宽松至3.60%的押注混淆了。目前，市场预计8月份降息的可能性为80%，尽管这在很大程度上取决于7月底发布的第二季度CPI报告。与此同时，在美国，数据显示，6月份消费者通胀率升至四个月高点，导致交易员降低了对美联储近期降息的预期。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell toward 4.41% after hitting an over seven-week high in the previous session, as investors turned their focus to upcoming jobs data. Market expectations are centered on an increase of 20,000 jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 4.1%. The labor market has remained surprisingly resilient, which has contributed to the RBA’s cautious stance on monetary easing. Last week, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.85%, confounding wagers for an easing to 3.60%. Currently, markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut in August, though much will depend on the second-quarter CPI report due at the end of July. Meanwhile, in the US, data showed that consumer inflation rose to a four-month high in June, leading traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the near term.

加元反弹，交易员关注粘性核心通胀。交易员对加拿大整体CPI不屑一顾，并锁定了粘性核心通胀，导致加元走高，降息可能性降低。

Canadian Dollar Rebounds as Traders Focus on Sticky Core Inflation.Traders shrugged off Canada's headline CPI and locked in on sticky core inflation, sending CAD higher and rate cut odds lower.