牛肉 (Beef) 加自选

随着新的避险情绪席卷全球市场，澳元贬值至0.650美元以下，触及四周来的最低水平。在估值担忧和对美中人工智能贸易发展的担忧下，全球股市再次出现科技股抛售浪潮，对风险敏感的货币造成压力。由于依赖大宗商品出口，澳元通常被视为全球风险的代表，尽管美国劳动力市场出现降温迹象，但澳元也未能从美元走软中受益。本周，澳元将下跌1%，这是一个月来的首次单周下跌，尽管澳大利亚储备银行在11月的会议上态度强硬。市场在很大程度上仍预计可能在明年5月再次降息，尽管一些分析师警告称，宽松周期可能已经结束，现金利率稳定在3.6%。

The Australian dollar depreciated below $0.650, hitting its lowest level in four weeks, as renewed risk-off sentiment swept across global markets. Another wave of tech selling in global equities amid valuation concerns and worries over US–China developments in AI trade weighed on the risk-sensitive currency. The Aussie, often viewed as a proxy for global risk due to its reliance on commodity exports, also failed to benefit from a softer greenback despite signs of cooling in the US labour market. For the week, the AUD is headed for a 1% loss, marking its first weekly decline in a month, despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s hawkish tone at its November meeting. Markets still largely expect one more rate cut, likely by May next year, though some analysts caution the easing cycle may have already ended with the cash rate steady at 3.6%.

美元指数在上一交易日大幅下跌后，周五保持在100点以下，因为美国劳动力市场降温的迹象加剧了人们对美联储12月降息的预期。由于政府长期停摆推迟了官方就业数据的发布，交易员们依靠私人指标来评估劳动条件。Challenger的数据显示，10月份宣布裁员15.3万人，为22年来的最高水平，主要与人工智能集成和成本优化有关。市场加大了对12月降息的押注，预计降息25个基点的可能性约为70%，高于前一天的62%。与此同时，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，由于缺乏官方通胀数据，进一步宽松政策需要谨慎。由于投资者寻求日元避险，美元兑日元汇率下跌幅度最大。

The dollar index held below the 100 mark on Friday after a sharp drop in the previous session, as signs of a cooling US labor market fueled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. With the prolonged government shutdown delaying the release of official employment data, traders relied on private indicators to assess labor conditions. Challenger data showed 153,000 announced job cuts in October, the highest for that month in 22 years, largely tied to AI integration and cost optimization. Markets increased bets on a December rate cut, pricing in about a 70% chance of a 25 bps reduction, up from 62% a day earlier. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the absence of official inflation data calls for caution on further easing. The dollar weakened most against the yen as investors sought safety in the Japanese currency.

美联储的Musalem：政策接近中性，关税对通胀的影响将在2026年减弱。圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆隔夜表示，今年的降息是“适当的”，但警告称，政策制定者必须对通胀风险保持谨慎。在一次活动中，他强调需要“在继续为就业部门提供一些保险的同时，对抗高于目标的通货膨胀”，这表明虽然宽松周期有助于稳定增长，但由于通货膨胀率仍高于2%，仍需保持警惕。

Fed's Musalem: Policy near neutral, tariff impact on inflation to fade in 2026.St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said overnight that this year's interest-rate cuts have been “appropriate”, but warned that policymakers must remain cautious about inflation risks. Speaking at an event, he emphasized the need to “lean against above-target inflation while continuing to provide some insurance to the employment sector,” suggesting that while the easing cycle has helped stabilize growth, vigilance is still warranted as inflation remains above 2%.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五早盘收平，收于8827点左右，暂停了前一交易日的上涨，因为科技股的跌幅超过了能源和黄金股的涨幅。科技股下跌1.5%，至六个月低点，在人工智能股票估值过高的持续担忧下，隔夜追随华尔街的微弱领先。行业领导者Xero、Wisetech和Technology One均下跌1.4%至2%。重量级矿商也出现下滑，必和必拓和力拓分别下跌0.5%和1.3%。相反，石油和天然气生产商伍德赛德能源公司股价上涨1.6%，此前有报道显示，尽管成本较高，但美国液化天然气出口商仍锁定了强劲的合同量。此外，黄金矿商因金价上涨而延续涨势，上涨0.9%，纽蒙特和北极星分别上涨2%和0.7%。本周，基准指数有望连续第二周下跌，部分原因是澳大利亚储备银行的鹰派政策前景。

The S&P/ASX 200 opened flat to around 8,827 in Friday morning trade, pausing the previous session’s advance, as losses in tech shares outweighed gains in energy and gold stocks. Technology stocks dropped 1.5% to a six-month low, tracking a weak lead on Wall Street overnight amid persistent concerns over lofty valuations in artificial intelligence stocks. Sector leaders Xero, Wisetech, and Technology One all declined between 1.4% and 2%. Heavyweight miners also slipped, with BHP and Rio Tinto down 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively. Conversely, oil and gas producer Woodside Energy climbed 1.6% after reports showed US LNG exporters locking in strong contract volumes despite higher costs. Additionally, gold miners extended gains on higher bullion prices, up 0.9%, with Newmont and Northern Star adding 2% and 0.7%, respectively. Over the week, the benchmark index is on track for a second weekly loss, partly due to a hawkish policy outlook by the Reserve Bank of Australia.