2025年第一季度，加拿大企业的劳动生产率增长了0.2%，低于2024年第四季度向上修正的1.2%。尽管如此，这标志着连续第二个季度上涨，这是自新冠肺炎大流行以来的首次。这一增长是由商品生产行业推动的，该行业的生产率增长了0.8%，而上一季度为0.3%。相比之下，服务业在第四季度反弹1.3%后下降了0.5%。在16个主要行业中，有一半的行业生产率有所提高，其中批发贸易（2.6%）、农业和林业（2.0%）以及公用事业（1.5%）领涨，而房地产行业的降幅最大（-3.9%）。在服务业的推动下，总工作时间从0.5%的下降中反弹，增长了0.4%。单位劳动力成本下降0.3%，这是连续四个季度上涨后的首次下降。

Labour productivity of Canadian businesses rose 0.2% in Q1 2025, slowing from a upwardly revised 1.2% in Q4 2024. Still, this marks a second consecutive quarterly gain—the first such streak since the COVID-19 pandemic. The increase was driven by goods-producing industries, where productivity rose 0.8% versus 0.3% in the previous quarter. In contrast, service-producing sectors saw a 0.5% decline after a 1.3% rebound in Q4. Productivity increased in half of the 16 main sectors, led by wholesale trade (2.6%), agriculture and forestry (2.0%), and utilities (1.5%), while real estate posted the sharpest drop (-3.9%). Total hours worked rose 0.4%, rebounding from a 0.5% decline, driven by services. Unit labour costs fell 0.3%, the first drop after four straight quarters of increases.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周三徘徊在26420附近，在投资者权衡贸易和货币发展的情况下，偏离了历史高点。加拿大央行将政策利率维持在2.75%，与4月份的通胀数据一致，该数据显示，尽管核心指标仍保持高位，但整体CPI仍向目标靠拢。与此同时，渥太华与华盛顿就特朗普总统加倍的钢铁和铝关税豁免进行的现场谈判缓解了人们对更广泛的贸易冲击的担忧，并保护了依赖出口的行业。在潜在的关税决议之前，股市基本持平，而随着油价上涨，能源股上涨，这得益于加拿大与野火有关的暂时产量中断，以及欧佩克+在7月份仅小幅增产。最后，华盛顿周三提交豁免请求的最后期限加强了渥太华的豁免努力，有助于使主要出口商免受即将到来的征税。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index hovered near 26,420 on Wednesday, wavering off its record high as investors weighed trade and monetary developments. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.75 percent, aligned with April’s inflation prints, which showed headline CPI easing toward target even as core measures remained elevated. Concurrently, Ottawa’s live negotiations with Washington to secure exemptions from President Trump’s doubled steel and aluminum tariffs have alleviated fears of a broader trade shock and sheltered export-dependent sectors. Equities were largely flat ahead of potential tariff resolutions, while energy names gained as oil prices rose—buoyed by temporary wildfire-related output disruptions in Canada and only modest July production increases from OPEC+. Finally, Washington’s Wednesday deadline for submitting exemption requests reinforced Ottawa’s carve-out efforts, helping to insulate key exporters from imminent levies.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率在5月21日从3.4%的四个月高点回落后，保持在3.25%以上，这得益于加拿大银行在持续的核心通胀中表现出的坚定态度。尽管4月份的整体CPI向2%的目标回落，但削减后的平均核心通胀率仍然居高不下，促使中国央行将政策利率维持在2.75%，并推迟任何降息，从而提高了长期债券的收益率。与此同时，渥太华通过持续发行债务满足的持续预算要求扩大了供应，而与此同时，国内养老基金正转向其他地方获得更丰厚的回报。此外，美国钢铁和铝关税的持续不确定性，加上加拿大石油部门的喜忧参半的信号，削弱了增长预测，导致买家坚持在加拿大期间收取风险溢价。

The yield on the Canadian 10-year government bond held above 3.25 percent after retreating from its four-month high of 3.4 percent on May 21st, buoyed by a resolute Bank of Canada amid persistent core inflation. Although April’s headline CPI eased toward the 2 percent target, trimmed-mean core inflation remained elevated, prompting the BoC to maintain its policy rate at 2.75 percent and defer any cuts, lifting yields on longer maturities. Meanwhile, Ottawa’s sustained budgetary requirements, met through ongoing debt issuance, have expanded supply just as domestic pension funds shift toward richer returns elsewhere. Moreover, persistent uncertainty over US steel and aluminum tariffs, coupled with mixed signals from Canada’s oil sector, has tempered growth forecasts and led buyers to insist on a risk premium for Canadian duration.

加拿大央行 由于经济疲软和通胀意外，该指数保持在2.75%。加拿大央行 正如预期的那样，隔夜利率保持在2.75%不变，在美国贸易政策持续存在不确定性的情况下选择谨慎。尽管承认经济“疲软但并非急剧疲软”，但管理委员会指出，最近的通胀数据显示“出乎意料的稳健”，在承诺采取进一步政策举措之前，有必要采取观望态度。

BoC holds at 2.75% as economy softens and inflation surprises.BoC kept its overnight rate unchanged at 2.75% as expected, opting for caution amid lingering uncertainty over US trade policy. While acknowledging a “softer but not sharply weaker” economy, the Governing Council pointed to recent inflation data that showed “unexpected firmness,” warranting a wait-and-see approach before committing to further policy moves.