WTI原油 (WestTexasOil) 加自选

美国采购经理人指数飙升表明美联储可能需要收紧而不是放松。美国PMI预览调查显示，制造业出现三年多来最强劲的反弹，该指数从49.8跃升至53.3。服务业保持在55.4，略低于55.7，将综合采购经理人指数提升至55.4的八个月高点。

US PMI surge suggests Fed may need to tighten rather than ease.US flash PMI survey showed the sharpest manufacturing rebound in over three years, as the index jumped from 49.8 to 53.3. Services held firm at 55.4, down slightly from 55.7, lifting Composite PMI to an eight-month high of 55.4.

美国7月现房销售401万套，而预期为392万套。上月393.0万套现房销售额为401万套，而预期为392万套，环比增长2.0%，上月为-2.7%。库存为4.6个月，而上个月为4.7个月。

US existing home sales for July 4.01M vs expectations of 3.92 M.Prior month 3.930 million Existing home sales 4.01M versus expectations of 3.92M Existing home sales +2.0% versus -2.7% last month. Inventories 4.6 months versus 4.7 months last month.

美元、欧元小幅走强，因美欧贸易协议细节浮出水面，整体情绪仍谨慎。货币市场今天仍不愿采取明确的方向，尽管股市和更广泛的风险情绪中明显存在温和的避险基调。欧元和美元成为当天温和坚挺的货币，这得益于欧元区强劲的采购经理人指数数据和美联储官员的稳定言论。

Dollar, Euro Slightly Firmer as US–EU Trade Deal Details Emerge, Overall Mood Still Cautious.Currency markets remained reluctant to take on clear direction today, though a mild risk-off undertone was evident in equities and broader risk sentiment. Euro and Dollar emerged as the mildly firmer currencies of the day, underpinned by strong Eurozone PMI data and steady remarks from Federal Reserve officials.

美联储的Bostic坚持今年降息一次的观点。亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克重申，他对货币政策的展望仍然集中在今年只降息一次，这与他自2025年初以来提供的指导一致。虽然Bostic强调他并没有“固步自封”，但他指出，在当前不确定性加剧的环境下，预测具有广泛的置信区间。

Fed's Bostic sticks to view of one cut this year.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that his outlook for monetary policy remains centered on just one rate cut this year, consistent with guidance he has offered since early 2025. While Bostic emphasized he is not “stuck on anything,” he noted that forecasts carry wide confidence bands in the current environment of heightened uncertainty.