燃油主力 (SHF_FU) 加自选

据新华社周二报道，官方数据显示，中国在2025年上半年共创造了695万个新的城镇就业岗位，实现了年度目标的58%。该国已设定目标，到2025年将调查失业率维持在5.5%左右，并计划创造1200多万个新的城市就业机会。上周公布的官方数据显示，2025年上半年，中国就业市场总体保持稳定，调查显示城市失业率平均为5.2%，比第一季度下降0.1个百分点。6月，中国调查失业率为5.0%，与上月持平，仍处于去年11月以来的最低水平。在31个主要城市中，城市调查失业率也为5.0%。

China created a total of 6.95 million new urban jobs in the first half of 2025, achieving 58% of its annual target, official data showed on Tuesday, according to Xinhua. The country has set a goal of maintaining a surveyed unemployment rate of around 5.5% in 2025 and aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs. China's job market remained generally stable in the first half of 2025, with the surveyed urban unemployment rate averaging 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, according to official data released last week. In June, China’s surveyed unemployment rate stood at 5.0%, unchanged from the previous month and remaining at its lowest level since November last year. Across 31 major cities, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was also 5.0%.

周二，上证综指下跌0.1%，收于3555点左右，深证成分股下跌0.3%，收于10970点，结束了连续三天的上涨，投资者获利回吐，并权衡了持续的全球贸易不确定性。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周一表示，特朗普政府将贸易协议的质量置于时间之上，并补充说，唐纳德·特朗普总统将决定是否延长8月1日的谈判最后期限。与此同时，中国人民银行周一将关键贷款利率维持在历史最低水平，以在消费者信心疲软和经济增长放缓的情况下支持经济。中国工业部还承诺稳定主要行业的增长，包括机械、汽车、电气设备、钢铁、有色金属、石化和建筑材料。其中，中国北方稀土（-1.9%）、胜利巨人（-2.6%）和沪店新能源（-4.4%）跌幅较大。

The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.1% to around 3,555, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.3% to 10,970 on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak as investors took profits and weighed ongoing global trade uncertainties. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Monday that the Trump administration prioritizes the quality of trade deals over timing, adding that President Donald Trump will decide whether to extend the August 1 deadline for negotiations. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China held key lending rates at record lows on Monday to support the economy amid weak consumer sentiment and slowing growth. China’s industry ministry also pledged to stabilize growth in major sectors, including machinery, autos, electrical equipment, steel, nonferrous metals, petrochemicals, and construction materials. Among notable decliners were China Northern Rare Earth (-1.9%), Victory Giant (-2.6%), and Hudian New Energy (-4.4%).

周二，离岸人民币兑美元汇率徘徊在7.17左右，交易区间狭窄，市场继续关注中美贸易发展的新线索。中国商务部长上周表示，北京旨在稳定与华盛顿的贸易关系，并援引最近的欧盟谈判作为证据，表明关税战是不必要的，并敦促美国采取负责任的行动。分析师指出，随着8月的临近，市场可能会将注意力转向不断变化的关税预期和即将到来的美联储任命。在政策方面，中国人民银行最近保持关键贷款利率不变，这一稳定的政策立场限制了人民币的波动。另外，中国Conflux Network推出了一种新的离岸人民币稳定币，此举被视为增强人民币长期流动性，并推进北京方面人民币国际化的努力。市场现在正在等待即将召开的政治局会议，预计在第二季度GDP增长强劲后，将出现支持性的政策基调，但主要刺激措施的范围有限。

The offshore yuan hovered around 7.17 per dollar on Tuesday, trading in a narrow band, as markets continued to monitor fresh cues on Sino-US trade developments. China's commerce minister said last week that Beijing aims to stabilize trade ties with Washington, citing recent EU talks as evidence that a tariff war is unnecessary and urging the US to act responsibly. Analysts noted that as August nears, markets are likely to shift focus toward evolving tariff expectations and upcoming US Fed Reserve appointments. On the policy front, the PBOC recently left key lending rates unchanged, a steady policy stance that has limited yuan volatility. Separately, China’s Conflux Network launched a new offshore yuan-based stablecoin, a move seen as bolstering long-term CNH liquidity and advancing Beijing’s efforts to internationalize the yuan. Markets now await the upcoming Politburo meeting, expecting a supportive policy tone but limited scope for major stimulus following stronger Q2 GDP growth.

随着通货紧缩的担忧缓解，中国的货币互换曲线变陡——刺激措施有所帮助。中国利率互换曲线长期以来的反转已经得到纠正，这表明投资者对最近的刺激措施可能有助于经济再膨胀的信心日益增强。周五，五年期掉期利率升至一年期利率之上，结束了2月份达到15个基点峰值的通货紧缩驱动的贴现。

China's swap curve steepens as deflation fears ease - stimulus helping.A long-standing inversion in China's interest-rate swap curve has corrected, suggesting growing investor confidence that recent stimulus efforts may help reflate the economy. On Friday, the five-year swap rate rose above the one-year rate, ending a deflation-driven discount that had peaked at 15 basis points in February.