美国大豆 (Soybeans) 加自选

杰克逊霍尔事件后，美国收益率曲线继续变陡。美联储主席鲍威尔可能在上周末产生了鸽派倾向，但这并没有阻止收益率曲线进一步陡峭。但这一切究竟意味着什么？

The US yield curve continues to steepen post-Jackson Hole.Fed chair Powell might have produced a dovish tilt at the end of last week but that's not stopping the yield curve from steepening further. But what does this all mean exactly?

周二，10年期美国国债收益率攀升至4.3%左右，连续第二个交易日上涨，因为投资者等待本周晚些时候公布个人消费支出价格指数，这是美联储首选的通胀指标。周二的经济日历还包括耐用品订单、消费者信心、凯斯席勒房价指数和里士满联邦制造业指数。唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布因涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈而罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克后，政治事态发展加剧了市场波动。此举加剧了人们对美联储独立性及其制定不受政治干预的货币政策的能力的担忧。分析人士表示，鉴于特朗普持续向美联储施压，要求其降低借贷成本，库克的解职可能会增加提前降息的可能性。期货市场目前暗示，在9月份的会议上降息25个基点的可能性为83%。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note climbed to around 4.3% on Tuesday, extending gains for a second straight session as investors awaited the release of the PCE price index later this week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. The economic calendar for Tuesday also includes durable goods orders, consumer confidence, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Political developments added to market volatility after President Donald Trump announced the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud. The move heightened concerns about the Fed’s independence and its ability to set monetary policy free from political interference. Analysts suggested that Cook’s dismissal could increase the chances of earlier interest rate cuts, given Trump’s persistent pressure on the Fed to ease borrowing costs. Futures markets currently imply an 83% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting.

唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁要对对对美国科技公司征收数字税或监管的国家征收新的关税和出口限制，称此类行为“具有歧视性”。在周一的Truth Social帖子中，他写道：“我提醒所有有数字税、立法、规则或监管的国度……我将征收大量额外关税……并对我们的高度保护技术和芯片实施出口限制。”该声明标志着特朗普对针对谷歌和Meta等公司的国家发出了迄今为止最直接的警告。虽然他在国内与大型科技公司发生冲突，但他的政府在全球贸易谈判中捍卫了他们的利益。

President Donald Trump threatened new tariffs and export restrictions on countries that impose digital taxes or regulations on U.S. tech firms, calling such actions “discriminatory.” In a Truth Social post on Monday, he wrote: “I put all Countries with Digital Taxes, Legislation, Rules, or Regulations, on notice… I will impose substantial additional Tariffs… and institute Export restrictions on our Highly Protected Technology and Chips.” The statement marks Trump’s most direct warning yet against nations targeting firms like Google and Meta. While he has clashed with Big Tech domestically, his administration has defended their interests in global trade talks.

周二，美元指数跌破98.3，在唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布因抵押贷款欺诈指控罢免美联储理事丽莎·库克后，美元指数回吐了上一交易日的涨幅。此举引发了人们对美联储独立性及其在没有政治干预的情况下执行货币政策的能力的担忧。分析人士表示，库克的解职可能会增加早些时候降息的可能性，因为特朗普一再向央行施压，要求其降低借贷成本。市场目前预计，美联储9月份降息25个基点的可能性为83%。投资者也将注意力转向即将公布的经济数据。美联储首选的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数将于周五公布，而周二的日历包括耐用品订单、消费者信心、凯斯席勒房价指数和里士满联邦制造业指数。

The dollar index fell below 98.3 on Tuesday, giving back gains from the previous session after President Donald Trump announced the removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. The move sparked concerns about the Fed’s independence and its ability to conduct monetary policy without political interference. Analysts suggested that Cook’s dismissal could increase the likelihood of earlier interest rate cuts, as Trump has repeatedly pressured the central bank to lower borrowing costs. Markets are now pricing in an 83% probability that the Fed will deliver a 25 basis point rate cut in September. Investors are also turning their attention to upcoming economic data. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE price index, is due Friday, while Tuesday’s calendar includes durable goods orders, consumer confidence, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index.