牛奶 (Milk) 加自选

澳大利亚央行决定后澳元走强。今天，澳元/美元汇率波动性飙升。根据ForexFactory的数据，分析师预测澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）将把利率从3.85%降至3.60%。

Australian Dollar Strengthens Following RBA Decision.Today, the AUD/USD pair experienced a spike in volatility. According to ForexFactory, analysts had forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would cut interest rates from 3.85% to 3.60%.

First Light News：美国贸易截止日期延长；澳大利亚储备银行维持利率不变。门柱再次被移动；美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布再次延长贸易最后期限，将其推迟至8月1日。

First Light News: US Trade Deadline Extended; RBA Holds Rates Unchanged.The goalpost has been moved yet again; US President Donald Trump announced another extension to the trade deadline, pushing it out to 1 August.

德国10年期国债收益率攀升至2.65%，达到5月23日以来的最高水平，此前有消息称，美国向欧盟提议维持10%的基准关税，并对飞机和烈酒等敏感行业豁免，贸易紧张局势有所缓解。然而，华盛顿没有表示将按照欧盟的要求，将豁免范围扩大到汽车、钢铁、铝或制药等政治敏感行业。欧盟的目标是本周敲定一项初步协议，在8月1日最后期限之后锁定10%的关税，同时继续就永久协议进行谈判。在经济方面，德国5月份的进出口降幅超过预期，尽管工业产出意外上升。德国央行行长约阿希姆·纳格尔警告称，美国关税可能在2025-2026年对德国造成最严重的打击，但预计在政府支出和债务刹车改革的支持下，德国将从2026年开始复苏，到2027年，这可能会使经济增长提高0.75个百分点。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield climbed toward 2.65%, reaching its highest level since May 23, as trade tensions eased following news that the US proposed a deal to the EU maintaining a 10% baseline tariff, with exemptions for sensitive sectors such as aircraft and spirits. However, Washington gave no indication it would extend exemptions to politically sensitive industries like cars, steel, aluminum, or pharmaceuticals, as requested by the EU. The bloc is aiming to finalize a preliminary agreement this week to lock in the 10% tariff beyond the August 1 deadline, while negotiations for a permanent deal continue. On the economic front, Germany’s exports and imports fell more than expected in May, though industrial output surprised to the upside. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned US tariffs may hit Germany hardest in 2025–2026 but expects a recovery from 2026, supported by government spending and reforms to the debt brake, which could boost growth by 0.75 percentage points by 2027.

澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克在今天的利率决定后的新闻发布会上表示，虽然澳大利亚的通货膨胀率连续两个季度保持在目标范围内，但由于单位劳动力成本上升和生产率疲软，风险依然存在，这可能会使通货膨胀高于预期。她强调，在采取进一步行动之前，需要更多的数据，包括6月季度CPI、劳动力市场更新和全球发展。董事会在方向上团结一致，但在时间上存在分歧，六名成员投票支持维持，三名成员以数据疲软和全球风险为由支持降息。布洛克表示，对与贸易紧张局势相关的严重全球经济衰退的担忧有所缓解，但国际背景仍然脆弱，特别是在美国和中国之间新的关税升级之后。尽管如此，她强调，澳大利亚与中国更紧密的关系为美国主导的冲击提供了一些保护。澳大利亚储备银行仍然保持谨慎，在全球不确定的情况下致力于实现通胀和就业目标。

While Australia’s inflation has remained within target for two consecutive quarters, risks persist due to elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity, which could push inflation above forecasts, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock said in a press briefing after an interest rate decision today. She stressed the need for more data—including June quarter CPI, labor market updates, and global developments—before taking further action. The board was united in direction but split on timing, with six members voting to hold and three favoring a rate cut, citing softer data and global risks. Bullock said fears of a severe global downturn tied to trade tensions have eased, but the international backdrop remains fragile, especially after fresh tariff escalations between the U.S. and China. Still, she emphasized that Australia’s closer ties to China offer some insulation from U.S.-led shocks. The RBA remains cautious, committed to its inflation and employment goals amid global uncertainty.