牛奶 (Milk) 加自选

德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.68%，为9月17日以来的最低水平，原因是投资者在关注法国和美国政治发展的同时，吸收了低于预期的德国工业数据。8月份，德国工业生产环比下跌4.3%，为2022年3月以来的最大跌幅，远低于1%的下降预期，这主要是由于汽车制造业的急剧收缩。在法国，总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙面临着越来越大的压力，要求提前举行选举或下台，因为即将离任的总理塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努在意外辞职后开始了为期两天的谈判。周三，Lecornu表示议会不太可能解散，但谈判反映出人们普遍愿意在年底前批准预算。与此同时，美国政府停摆没有减弱的迹象，这引发了人们的担忧，即关键数据发布的延迟可能会使美联储的政策决策复杂化。

The yield on Germany’s 10-year Bund fell to 2.68%, its lowest level since September 17, as investors absorbed weaker-than-expected German industrial data while monitoring political developments in France and the US. German industrial production tumbled 4.3% month-over-month in August—the steepest decline since March 2022—well below expectations of a 1% drop, driven largely by a sharp contraction in car manufacturing. In France, President Emmanuel Macron faces mounting pressure to call early elections or step down as outgoing Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu embarked on two-day negotiations following his unexpected resignation. On Wednesday, Lecornu indicated that a parliamentary dissolution was unlikely, but the talks reflected a general willingness to approve a budget by year-end. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown shows no signs of abating, raising concerns that delays in key data releases could complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions.

法兰克福DAX指数周三上涨0.3%，至24460点，在开局惨淡后达到7月9日以来的最高水平，主要受钢铁股提振，投资者欢迎欧盟周二公布的新贸易措施。欧盟委员会宣布计划将可进口到欧盟的钢铁数量减半，对任何超额部分征收50%的新关税。德国工业集团蒂森克虏伯（Thyssenkrupp）的股价在消息传出后飙升了5%以上。然而，法国政治危机和美国政府长期停摆的不确定性，再加上德国经济数据疲软，打压了投资者情绪。2025年8月，德国工业生产环比下降4.3%，远超1%的预期降幅，为2022年3月以来最大降幅。与此同时，宝马股价在2025财年发布盈利预警后下跌了5%以上，原因是中国经济增长令人失望，欧盟和美国的关税退款延迟。

Frankfurt’s DAX rose 0.3% to 24,460 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since July 9 after a lackluster start, buoyed mainly by steel stocks as investors welcomed new trade measures unveiled by the European Union on Tuesday. The European Commission announced plans to halve the amount of steel that can be imported into the bloc, with new 50% tariffs applying to any excess. Shares of German industrial conglomerate Thyssenkrupp surged more than 5% on the news. However, uncertainty from France’s political crisis and the prolonged US government shutdown, combined with weak German economic data, weighed on investor sentiment. Industrial production in Germany slumped 4.3% month-over-month in August 2025, far exceeding expectations of a 1% decline and marking the steepest drop since March 2022. Meanwhile, BMW shares dropped over 5% following a profit warning for the 2025 financial year, driven by disappointing growth in China and delayed EU-US tariff refunds.

周三，巴黎CAC 40微涨至7990左右，受到安赛乐米塔尔股价上涨3%以上的支撑，此前该钢铁制造商欢迎欧盟委员会降低欧盟免关税进口钢铁的装运配额，并对超过这些限额的数量提高关税的提议。相比之下，由于美国呼吁禁止向中国销售芯片制造设备，科技股下跌，而宝马下调盈利预测后，汽车制造商仍面临压力。随着法国政治危机的加深，更广泛的情绪保持谨慎，总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙在反复的内阁改组和不稳定的议会中面临着越来越大的压力。反对派继续推动提前选举，而马克龙已责成最近辞职的总理塞巴斯蒂安·莱科尔努在今晚之前提交一份可行的行动计划和稳定的执政纲领，尽管人们对他是否有能力这样做仍持怀疑态度。

The Paris CAC 40 edged up to around 7,990 on Wednesday, supported by a more than 3% jump in ArcelorMittal shares after the steelmaker welcomed the European Commission’s proposal to lower shipment quotas for tariff-free steel imports into the EU and raise tariffs on volumes exceeding those limits. In contrast, technology stocks declined amid US calls for bans on sales of chipmaking equipment to China, while automakers remained under pressure following BMW’s earnings forecast downgrade. Broader sentiment stayed cautious as France’s political crisis deepened, with President Emmanuel Macron facing mounting pressure amid repeated cabinet reshuffles and an unstable parliament. The opposition continues to push for early elections, while Macron has tasked recently resigned Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu with presenting a viable action plan and stable governing platform by tonight, though doubts remain over his ability to do so.

即将离任的法国总理Lecornu：法国必须在今年年底前获得预算。Lecornu是法国去年以无多数议会结束提前选举后的第三位轮值总理。从那时起，政治不稳定和不确定性就成了游戏的名字。

Outgoing French prime minister Lecornu: France must get a budget by end of this year.Lecornu is the third prime minister in rotation after France saw the snap elections last year end in a hung parliament. Since then, political instability and uncertainty has been the name of the game.