美元的反弹再次停滞，但欧元似乎不容易迫使其突破高位。昨天的欧洲9月PMI在标题层面上还不错，但细节并不令人信服。最重要的是，他们主张延长欧洲央行正常化周期的暂停时间，以检查之前的宽松政策以及财政举措将如何发挥作用。

Dollar's Comeback Stalls Again But Doesn't Seem Easy for Euro to Force a Topside Break.Yesterday's European September PMIs were not bad on a headline level but details were unconvincing. More than anything else, they argue for a prolonged pause in the ECB's normalization cycle to check how previous easing, coupled with the fiscal initiatives, will be filtering through.

鲍威尔的警告。美联储（Fed）鸽派和冒险投资者不一定欢迎杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）昨天在演讲中的谨慎语气，因为美联储主席避免在下个月的会议上承诺降息。他重申，劳动力市场的风险倾向于下行，而通胀风险仍在上行——这是一个喜忧参半的局面，需要谨慎的政策调整。

Caution from Powell.Federal Reserve (Fed) doves and risk-taking investors didn't necessarily welcome Jerome Powell's cautious tone in his speech yesterday, as the Fed Chair avoided committing to a rate cut at next month's meeting. He repeated that the risks to the labour market are tilted to the downside, while inflation risks remain to the upside – a mixed picture that requires careful policy adjustment.

美联储的鲍威尔：创造就业低于盈亏平衡，关税效应是一次性冲击。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一夜之间的一次演讲中表示，美国劳动力市场的供需都显示出“明显放缓”，称这是一个不寻常且具有挑战性的发展。他指出，目前创造的就业机会似乎低于保持失业率稳定所需的“盈亏平衡”率，尽管其他指标，如职位空缺和申请人数大致保持稳定。

Fed's Powell: Job creation below breakeven, tariff effect a one-time shock.Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech overnight that the U.S. labor market is showing a “marked slowing” in both supply and demand, calling it an unusual and challenging development. He noted that job creation now appears to be running below the “breakeven” rate needed to keep unemployment rate stable, though other indicators such as job openings and claims remain broadly steady.

美国10年期国债收益率在前一交易日下跌约5个基点后，周三稳定在4.11%附近，因为美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示对进一步宽松政策持谨慎态度。鲍威尔表示，降息前景仍不确定，因为美联储面临着在支持疲软的劳动力市场的同时遏制通胀的挑战。他还指出，迄今为止，与关税相关的通胀效应一直处于预期的较低水平，这为限制性较小的政策留下了一些空间。与此同时，在上周的会议上主张更大幅度降息50个基点的新任美联储理事Stephen Miran警告称，政策制定者可能低估了政策的紧缩性，如果不采取更大胆的行动，就会危及就业。投资者现在转向即将公布的个人消费支出价格指数，这是美联储首选的通胀指标，以获得更多指导。

The US 10-year Treasury yield steadied near 4.11% on Wednesday after falling about 5 basis points in the prior session, as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled caution on further policy easing. Powell said the rate-cut outlook remains uncertain as the Fed faces the challenge of containing inflation while supporting a softening labor market. He also noted that tariff-related inflation effects have so far been at the lower end of expectations, leaving some scope for less restrictive policy. At the same time, new Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who advocated for a larger 50 basis point cut at last week’s meeting, warned that policymakers may be underestimating policy tightness and risking jobs without bolder action. Investors now turn to the upcoming PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for additional guidance.