英国3个月期国债 (UK3M) 加自选

英国10年期国债收益率攀升至4.61%以上，从周二的两周低点4.575%反弹，部分受日本市场波动的影响。有报道称，尽管最近美日达成了贸易协定，但日本首相石破茂可能会辞职。尽管如此，该协议仍引发了人们的乐观情绪，即美国和欧盟之间可能会达成较低的关税协议。在英国，人们的注意力转向了经济数据：预计快速PMI将显示六个月来最温和的制造业收缩和近一年来最强劲的服务业增长。在炎热天气的支持下，零售销售也预计会反弹。与此同时，英国6月份的预算赤字达到207亿英镑，是1993年以来第二高的6月份数字。这些数据加剧了人们对财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯可能需要在秋季增税的担忧。在货币政策方面，市场预计9月份将降息25个基点，到年底再次降息的可能性约为90%。

The UK 10-year gilt yield climbed above 4.61%, rebounding from a two-week low of 4.575% on Tuesday, partly influenced by volatility in Japanese markets. Reports suggest Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may resign, despite the recent US-Japan trade agreement. Still, the deal has fueled optimism that a lower-tariff agreement between the US and EU could follow. In the UK, attention turns to economic data: flash PMIs are expected to show the softest manufacturing contraction in six months and the strongest services growth in nearly a year. Retail sales are also projected to rebound, supported by hot weather. Meanwhile, the UK’s June budget deficit hit £20.7 billion, the second-highest June figure since 1993. The data has heightened concerns that Chancellor Rachel Reeves may need to raise taxes in the autumn. On the monetary policy front, markets expect a quarter-point rate cut in September and price in about a 90% chance of another by year-end.