英国3个月期国债 (UK3M) 加自选

周二，受银行、矿业和国防股强劲上涨的支撑，富时100指数上涨超过0.5%，创下历史新高。汇丰银行在公布强于预期的第三季度业绩并上调盈利前景后，以超过4%的涨幅领涨。罗尔斯·罗伊斯和BAE系统公司也有所上涨，分别上涨了2%和1%以上，因为对航空航天和国防股票的需求保持坚挺。在矿商中，英美资源集团股价上涨超过2%，此前该公司重申了其年度铜产量目标，并报告了剥离戴比尔斯钻石部门的计划进展。嘉能可、弗雷斯尼洛、奋进和安托法加斯塔也上涨了1%-1.5%。Airtel Africa在该指数中名列前茅，在上半年收益大幅增长后飙升了13%以上。英镑走弱进一步提供支撑，提振出口型股票。与此同时，英国零售商协会的最新数据显示，英国食品账单以近五年来最快的速度下降，这增强了人们对英格兰银行即将降息的预期。

The FTSE 100 climbed more than 0.5% to a new record high on Tuesday, supported by strong gains in banks, miners, and defence stocks. HSBC led the rally with a rise of over 4% after posting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and raising its profitability outlook. Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems also advanced, up more than 2% and 1% respectively, as demand for aerospace and defence stocks remained firm. Among miners, Anglo American gained over 2% after reaffirming its annual copper production target and reporting progress on plans to separate its De Beers diamond division. Glencore, Fresnillo, Endeavour, and Antofagasta also gained 1%-1.5%. Airtel Africa topped the index, soaring more than 13% after a sharp increase in first-half earnings. A weaker pound added further support, boosting exporter-heavy stocks. Meanwhile, fresh data from the BRC showed UK food bills falling at the fastest pace in nearly five years, reinforcing expectations of upcoming Bank of England rate cuts.

英国10年期国债收益率跌至4.4%以下，为2024年12月以来的最低水平，因为市场对英格兰银行降息的预期增加。此前有报道称，预算责任办公室正准备将英国生产率增长预测下调约0.3个百分点，这一下调可能会使财政缺口扩大约200亿英镑。这一修订加剧了人们对财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯11月预算的担忧，预计该预算将解决高达350亿英镑的潜在缺口。疲软的通胀数据强化了市场情绪的转变，最近的数据显示，食品价格有所缓解，整体CPI的降温幅度超过预期。交易员们现在认为，12月降息25个基点的可能性约为68%，因为通胀和财政逆风减弱为央行提供了更多放松政策的空间。

The UK 10-year gilt yield fell below 4.4%, the lowest since December 2024, as markets ramped up expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. The move followed reports that the Office for Budget Responsibility is preparing to lower its UK productivity growth forecast by about 0.3 percentage points, a downgrade that could widen the fiscal gap by roughly £20 billion. The revision has heightened concerns ahead of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s November budget, which is expected to address a potential shortfall of up to £35 billion. Softer inflation data have reinforced the shift in sentiment, with recent figures showing food prices easing and overall CPI cooling more than expected. Traders now see around a 68% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in December, as weaker inflation and fiscal headwinds give the Bank more room to ease policy.

英镑/日元跌至近两周低点，因日元因干预风险和贸易乐观情绪而走强。英镑/日元跌至近两周低点，因日元因干预风险和贸易乐观情绪而走强

GBP/JPY weakens to near two-week low as Yen firms on intervention risk and trade optimism.GBP/JPY weakens to near two-week low as Yen firms on intervention risk and trade optimism

英国零售商协会（British Retail Consortium）的数据显示，英国商店价格通胀率从9月份的1.4%降至10月份的1%，这是连续7个月压力上升后的首次下降。受电器、健康和美容产品折扣的推动，整体商店价格环比下跌0.3%。食品通胀也从之前的4.2%放缓至3.7%，而食品价格本月下跌0.4%，这是近五年来的最大跌幅，这得益于全球食糖成本的下降。英国零售商协会指出，巧克力和糖果的价格下降，为万圣节购物者提供了一些季节性的缓解。商店价格的放缓对政策制定者来说是个好消息，因为最近的通胀数据显示，消费者价格接近英格兰银行2%目标的两倍。英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯承诺将利用11月26日的预算来遏制价格压力，此前零售商此前曾指责她的税收措施增加了今年早些时候的成本。

UK shop price inflation eased to 1% in October from 1.4% in September, marking the first decline after seven consecutive months of rising pressures, according to the British Retail Consortium. Overall shop prices fell 0.3% month-on-month, driven by discounts on electricals and health and beauty products. Food inflation also slowed to 3.7% from 4.2% previously, while food prices dropped 0.4% on the month, the steepest fall in nearly five years, helped by lower global sugar costs. The BRC noted that prices of chocolate and confectionery declined, offering some seasonal relief for Halloween shoppers. The moderation in shop prices comes as welcome news for policymakers after recent inflation data showed consumer prices running close to double the Bank of England’s 2% target. Chancellor Rachel Reeves has pledged to use her November 26 budget to contain price pressures, after retailers previously blamed her tax measures for adding to costs earlier in the year.