荷兰AEX25指数 (AEX) 加自选

2025年7月，荷兰的贸易顺差从去年同期的93.1亿欧元收窄至85.2亿欧元。这标志着自2022年8月以来最小的贸易顺差，出口同比下降0.5%，至678.5亿欧元，受对非欧盟国家销售额下降（-2.8%）的拖累，部分被对欧盟国家销售额上升（1.1%）所抵消。在大宗商品中，矿物燃料和润滑油的出口大幅下降（-11.7%），而化学产品的出货量下降了3%。与此同时，进口增长0.8%，至593.3亿欧元，主要原因是非欧盟国家的采购增加（1.7%），而欧盟国家的进口下降了0.3%。进口增长显著的包括食品和活体动物（15.5%）、化学产品（9.1%）以及机械和运输设备（2.4%）的到货。1月至7月，荷兰贸易顺差为730.7亿欧元，低于去年同期的818.9亿欧元。

The Netherlands’ trade surplus narrowed to EUR 8.52 billion in July 2025 from EUR 9.31 billion in the same month last year. This marks the smallest trade surplus since August 2022, as exports fell 0.5% year-on-year to EUR 67.85 billion, dragged down by lower sales to non-EU countries (-2.8%), partially offset by higher sales to EU countries (1.1%). Among commodities, exports sharply declined for mineral fuels and lubricants (-11.7%), while shipments of chemical products fell by 3%. Meanwhile, imports rose 0.8% to EUR 59.33 billion, driven by increased purchases from non-EU countries (1.7%), while imports from EU countries declined 0.3%. Notable import increases included arrivals of food and live animals (15.5%), chemical products (9.1%), and machinery and transport equipment (2.4%). From January to July, the Netherlands recorded a trade surplus of EUR 73.07 billion, lower compared with EUR 81.89 billion in the corresponding period last year.

2025年7月，荷兰制造业产量环比下降1.4%，延续了6月份0.1%的降幅，这是自2024年9月以来最大的收缩。食品（6月份为-3.7%对0.4%）、皮革和鞋类（-3.5%对2.3%）、建筑材料（-2.1%对-0.9%）和电气设备（-5.3%对3.9%）的产出下降幅度最大。化学品（-0.2%比0.3%）、药品（-0.8%比-12.1%）、机械（-0.8%对0.9%）和其他产品（-2%比-3.6%）也出现了下降。相比之下，基本金属（0.9%对-9.4%）、金属制品（2.8%对-4%）、汽车和拖车（8.7%对-6.2%）以及家具（10.6%对-7.1%）的产量反弹。服装（0.6%对0.2%）和纺织品（1.6%对0.5%）也有所上涨。在上个月下降0.1%之后，制造业产出同比下降1.1%。

Manufacturing production in the Netherlands fell by 1.4% month-over-month in July 2025, extending a 0.1% decline in June and marking the sharpest contraction since September 2024. Output dropped the most in food (-3.7% vs 0.4% in June), leather and shoes (-3.5% vs 2.3%), building materials (-2.1% vs -0.9%), and electrical equipment (-5.3% vs 3.9%). Declines were also recorded in chemicals (-0.2% vs 0.3%), pharmaceuticals (-0.8% vs -12.1%), machinery (-0.8% vs 0.9%), and other products (-2% vs -3.6%). In contrast, production rebounded in basic metals (0.9% vs -9.4%), metal products (2.8% vs -4%), automotive and trailers (8.7% vs -6.2%), and furniture (10.6% vs -7.1%). Gains were also seen in clothing (0.6% vs 0.2%) and textiles (1.6% vs 0.5%). On a yearly basis, manufacturing output declined 1.1%, following a 0.1% drop in the previous month.

根据初步估计，荷兰的年通货膨胀率从7月份的2.9%降至2025年8月的2.8%。这是自2024年5月以来的最低水平，因为食品、饮料和烟草的价格增长有所放缓，从7月份的4.1%降至3.7%，服务业的价格增长从上个月的4.0%降至3.8%。另一方面，除能源和汽车燃料外的工业品通胀温和加速，增长1.4%对1.3%，包括汽车燃料在内的能源通胀从7月份的1.0%上升1.6%。按月计算，消费者价格可能增长0.2%，较7月份的1.3%有所回落。与此同时，不包括住房成本并用于欧盟层面比较的协调消费者价格指数（HICP）也显示出轻微放缓，从7月份的2.5%降至8月份的2.4%。

The annual inflation rate in the Netherlands moderated to 2.8% in August 2025, down from 2.9% in July, according to preliminary estimates. This marks the lowest reading since May 2024, as price growth eased for food, beverages, and tobacco, coming in at 3.7% compared with 4.1% in July, and for services, which rose 3.8%, down from 4.0% in the previous month. On the other hand, inflation showed modest acceleration in industrial goods excluding energy and motor fuels, which increased 1.4% vs 1.3%, as well as in energy including motor fuels, which rose 1.6%, up from 1.0% in July. On a monthly basis, consumer prices are likely to have grown 0.2%, easing from a 1.3% jump in July. Meanwhile, the harmonized consumer price index (HICP)—which excludes housing costs and is used for EU-level comparisons—also showed a slight slowdown, easing to 2.4% in August from 2.5% in July.

2025年8月，Nevi荷兰制造业采购经理人指数保持在51.9，与7月持平，标志着第三个月的扩张。强劲的产出推动了这一改善，以15个月来最快的速度增长，尽管由于出口几乎停滞，新订单增长有所放缓。企业的应对措施是以2022年底以来最快的速度扩大就业，同时仍在减少积压的工作。与此同时，7月反弹后，采购活动有所缩减，导致库存小幅下降，供应商交货时间因短缺而延长。成本压力也加剧了，投入和产出价格都以更快的速度上涨。展望未来，由于新项目和产能计划，制造商普遍保持乐观，但信心跌至四个月低点。经济学家警告称，美国的关税、对一些ASML供应商的需求减弱以及国防投资的增加将继续影响荷兰工业的状况

The Nevi Netherlands Manufacturing PMI held at 51.9 in August 2025, unchanged from July and marking a third month of expansion. Stronger output drove the improvement, rising at the fastest pace in 15 months, though new order growth softened as exports nearly stalled. Firms responded by expanding employment at the quickest rate since late 2022, while still reducing backlogs of work. At the same time, purchasing activity was scaled back after July’s rebound, leading to modest falls in inventories, and supplier delivery times lengthened amid shortages. Cost pressures also intensified, with both input and output prices rising at a faster pace. Looking ahead, manufacturers remained broadly optimistic thanks to new projects and capacity plans, but confidence slipped to a four-month low. Economists warned that US tariffs, weaker demand for some ASML suppliers, and rising defense investment will continue to shape conditions for Dutch industry