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消费和投资进一步走弱，中国数据令人失望。中国11月的经济活动数据显示，经济形势普遍弱于预期。工业生产同比增长4.8%，低于5.0%的增长预期，为2024年8月以来的最低增速。

China data disappoints as consumption and investment weaken further.China's November activity data delivered a broadly weaker-than-expected picture. Industrial production rose 4.8% yoy, missing expectations for 5.0% growth and marking the weakest pace since August 2024.

日本短观：随着企业吸收关税影响，制造业情绪有所改善。日本第四季度短观调查为经济提供了广泛的支持信号，增强了人们对日本央行将继续进行利率正常化的预期。大型制造业指数从14升至15，符合预期，标志着连续第三个季度有所改善，是自2021年12月以来的最强读数。

Japan Tankan: Manufacturing sentiment improves as firms absorb tariff impact.Japan's Q4 Tankan survey delivered a broadly supportive signal for the economy, reinforcing expectations that the BoJ will proceed with rate normalization. The large manufacturing index rose from 14 to 15, in line with expectations, marking a third consecutive quarterly improvement and the strongest reading since December 2021.

如果前景如预期般发展，RBNZ的布雷曼预计OCR将保持在2.25%。新西兰储备银行行长安娜·布雷曼今天在接受媒体采访时表示，近期进一步宽松的门槛仍然很高。尽管11月货币政策声明中公布的未来路径允许再次降息的可能性很小，但布雷曼强调，“如果经济状况按预期发展，OCR可能会在一段时间内保持在目前的2.25%的水平。

RBNZ's Breman sees OCR holding at 2.25% if outlook unfolds as expected.RBNZ Governor Anna Breman signaled in media interviews today that the bar for further near-term easing remains high. While the forward path published in the November Monetary Policy Statement allows for a small probability of another rate cut, Breman stressed “if economic conditions evolve as expected the OCR is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25 per cent for some time.

英国央行将就可能降息进行密切投票。英格兰银行本周似乎将对利率进行一次尖锐的投票，预计行长安德鲁·贝利将改变看法，并决定降息。

Bank of England heads for close vote on likely rate cut.The Bank of England looks set for a knife-edge vote on interest rates this week with Governor Andrew Bailey expected to change his view and tip the balance for a cut.