国际展望周:经济增长反弹,日本央行继续加息。尽管我们和普遍预期在第三季度环比年化收缩2.3%后,2025年第四季度将出现反弹,但我们预测复苏温和,为1.2%,而普遍预期为1.6%。第三季度的收缩主要是由于净出口疲软,此前在预期的美国关税之前,出货量被提前至第二季度。
International Week Ahead: Growth Rebound to Keep BoJ Hikes in Play.While both we and consensus expect a rebound in Q4-2025 following the quarter-over-quarter annualized 2.3% contraction in Q3, we forecast a milder recovery of 1.2% versus 1.6% for consensus. The contraction in Q3 was driven largely by weaker net exports after shipments were pulled forward into Q2 ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs.