木 (Lumber) 加自选

10年期巴西政府债券收益率降至13.75%左右，因为更清晰的Copom指引、通胀预期下降和全球长期利率疲软共同降低了长期地方债务的溢价。央行决定将基准利率维持在15%，并发表谨慎、近乎鹰派的声明，这提高了近期降息的门槛，并略微降低了通胀路径，从而降低了预期的长期通胀，压缩了巴西债券的期限溢价。与此同时，外部条件也起到了帮助作用，因为美国长期收益率从最近的峰值回落，缓解了全球无风险曲线，并允许新兴市场长期收益率相应走低。

The 10-year Brazilian government bond yield fell to around 13.75% as clearer Copom guidance, falling inflation expectations and softer global long rates combined to trim the premium on long dated local debt. The central bank’s decision to hold the Selic at 15% and issue a cautious, near hawkish statement raised the bar for near term cuts and slightly lowered the inflation path, which reduced expected long run inflation and compressed term premia for Brazilian bonds. At the same time, external conditions also helped as US long yields softened from recent peaks, easing the global risk free curve and allowing emerging market long yields to drift lower in sympathy.

加拿大Ivey采购经理人指数从9月份的59.8降至2025年10月的52.4，低于预期的55.2。该读数标志着第六个月高于50点的阈值，表明经济活动总体扩张。库存指数从56.4降至51.7，供应商交付量从47.4降至45.4。与此同时，物价指数从63.2升至64.3，就业指数从50.2升至51.8。

Canada’s Ivey Purchasing Managers Index fell to 52.4 in October 2025 from 59.8 in September, missing expectations of 55.2. The reading marks the sixth month above the 50-point threshold, indicating overall expansion in activity. The inventories index declined to 51.7 from 56.4, and supplier deliveries fell to 45.4 from 47.4. Meanwhile, the prices index rose to 64.3 from 63.2, and the employment index increased to 51.8 from 50.2.

周四，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数在30100点左右小幅上涨和下跌，投资者消化了新的公司业绩，而大宗商品生产商上涨。Cameco是表现最差的公司之一，在未达到盈利预期后下跌了3.5%以上。太阳人寿金融公司在报告净收入和收益同比下降后暴跌超过4%。权重股Shopify、汤森路透和加拿大太平洋铁路表现不佳，均下跌约1.5%至2.7%。相比之下，主要矿商Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold和Wheaton Precious Metals上涨约1%至1.8%，因黄金走强，并在Wheaton收盘后公布业绩之前。能源公司森科尔、帝国石油和Cenovus也贡献了上涨，各上涨约1%。

The S&P/TSX Composite swung between small gains and losses around the 30,100 mark on Thursday, as investors digested a fresh slate of corporate results, while commodity producers rose. Cameco was among the weakest names, falling more than 3.5% after missing earnings expectations. Sun Life Financial tumbled over 4% after reporting a year on year drop in net income and earnings. Heavyweights Shopify, Thomson Reuters and Canadian Pacific Railway underperformed, each slipping between about 1.5% and 2.7%. By contrast major miners Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold and Wheaton Precious Metals rose roughly 1% to 1.8% as gold firmed and ahead of Wheaton’s results due after the close. Energy names Suncor, Imperial Oil and Cenovus also contributed to the upside, each adding around 1%.

周四，Ibovespa指数上涨约0.5%，创下15.4万英镑的新纪录，同时市场对BCB的利率决定进行了评估。Engie Brasil（+1.6%）报告第三季度调整后利润增长9.8%，达到7.31亿雷亚尔。Vivara（+2.4%）也上涨，此前其净利润增长64.1%，达到1.76亿雷亚尔，调整后息税折旧摊销前利润增长37%。巴西国家石油公司（+1.4%）、科格纳公司（-1.3%）、弗勒里公司（+0.3%）、阿萨伊公司（+0.30%）、Caixa Seguridade公司（+1.3%）、雷纳公司（-3.1%）、路易莎杂志（-3.3%），苏萨诺公司（-0.2%）、Petrorecôncavo公司（+0.6%）和SLC Agrícola公司（-0.3%）今天也发布了报告。不利的一面是，Brava Energia（-3.1%）净利润下降75.8%，至1.207亿雷亚尔。与此同时，尽管利润较高，但Minerva股价下跌了10%以上，因为息税折旧摊销前利润与预期相符，但净利润低于预期。在信贷方面，巴西央行将其基准利率保持在15%，并重申在即将做出的决定中将保持在这一水平。

The Ibovespa rose around 0.5% toward a new record of 154,000 on Thursday amid positive earnings, while markets assessed the BCB's rate decision. Engie Brasil (+1.6%) reported a 9.8% rise in Q3 adjusted profit to R$731 million. Vivara (+2.4%) also rose after it posted a 64.1% jump in net profit to R$176 million and 37% higher adjusted EBITDA. Petrobras (+1.4%), Cogna (-1.3%), Fleury (+0.3%), Assaí (+0.3%), Caixa Seguridade (+1.3%), Renner (-3.1%), Magazine Luiza (-3.3%), Suzano (-0.2%), Petrorecôncavo (+0.6%), and SLC Agrícola (-0.3%) also report today. On the downside, Brava Energia (-3.1%) net profit fell 75.8% to R$120.7 million. Meanwhile, Minerva dropped over 10% despite higher profits, as EBITDA was in line, but net profits fell short of estimates. On the credit side, the BCB kept its Selic rate at 15% and reiterated it will remain at this level for the upcoming decisions.