木 (Lumber) 加自选

新西兰股市在周二早盘几乎没有变化，在前一交易日小幅上涨后徘徊在13079点左右。通信和工业服务的进步几乎抵消了非能源矿产和医疗保健的损失。交易员在劳动力市场担忧的情况下权衡了美联储降息的前景，同时在新西兰总理克里斯托弗·卢克森批评新西兰联储的谨慎立场后评估了国内前景，尽管自去年8月以来借贷成本从5.5%逐步放缓。在华尔街，周一股市收盘下跌，投资者在英伟达盈利和美联储首选通胀指标公布之前获利回吐。在主要贸易伙伴中国，1月至7月的工业利润数据将于本周晚些时候公布，贸易壁垒、需求疲软和最近的恶劣天气给市场情绪蒙上了阴影。Genesis Energy（-2.1%）、T&G Global（-1.9%）和AFT Pharma（-1.5%）下跌，而Scott Tech（2.4%）、Vista Group（1.9%）和Mainfreight（1.8%）上涨。

New Zealand stocks were little changed in early Tuesday trade, hovering around 13,079 after a modest rise in the prior session. Advances in communications and industrial services nearly offset losses in non-energy minerals and healthcare. Traders weighed U.S. Fed rate cut prospects amid labor market concerns, while assessing the domestic outlook after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon criticized the RBNZ’s cautious stance—despite a gradual easing in borrowing costs from 5.5% since last August. On Wall Street, equities closed lower Monday as investors booked profits ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. In major trading partner China, January–July industrial profit data is due later this week, with sentiment clouded by trade barriers, soft demand, and recent adverse weather. Genesis Energy (-2.1%), T&G Global (-1.9%), and AFT Pharma (-1.5%) declined, while Scott Tech (2.4%), Vista Group (1.9%), and Mainfreight (1.8%) posted gains.

周一，Ibovespa指数微涨至138025点，因对全球降息和国内通胀预测疲软的押注抵消了政治和财政风险。鲍威尔的Jackson Hole言论提高了美联储9月降息的可能性，压缩了当地远期利率并放宽了股票贴现。与此同时，央行焦点调查将2025年IPCA预期下调至4.86%，加强了Selic从15%下调的前景，并支持向利率敏感行业的轮换。这些支持受到了美国未解决的关税威胁的制约，这些威胁给大宗商品和物流链带来了压力，也受到了法律和政治头条的制约，引发了对主要银行和国有企业的治理担忧。随着IPCA-15和关键全球数据的公布，投资者保持谨慎。WEG和巴西国家电力公司分别上涨0.9%和1.8%，而巴西银行和巴西航空工业公司分别下跌1.9%和2.2%。

The Ibovespa closed slightly higher at 138,025 on Monday as bets on global rate cuts and softer domestic inflation projections offset political and fiscal risks. Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks lifted the probability of a September Fed cut, compressing local forward rates and easing equity discounting. At the same time the Central Bank Focus survey trimmed 2025 IPCA expectations to 4.86%, reinforcing prospects of Selic cuts from 15% and supporting rotation into rate-sensitive sectors. These supports were checked by unresolved US tariff threats pressuring commodity and logistics chains and by legal and political headlines raising governance concerns for major banks and state-linked firms. With IPCA-15 and key global data ahead, investors stayed cautious. WEG and Eletrobras rose 0.9% and 1.8%, while Banco do Brasil and Embraer fell 1.9% and 2.2%.

加拿大取消部分关税后，加美官员将举行会晤。上周晚些时候，加拿大采取了一项重大举措，通过取消对美国进口商品的许多报复性关税来缓解贸易紧张局势，这些关税属于USMCA自由贸易协定。

Canadian US officials are to meet after Canada removes some tariffs.Late last week, Canada took a significant step to ease trade tensions by lifting many of its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports that fall under the USMCA free-trade agreement.

周一，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.6%，收于28170点，因获利回吐遭遇了大量短期风险，放弃了上周的纪录。鲍威尔的杰克逊霍尔言论早些时候提高了降息的可能性，并吸引了资金进入股市，但市场现在面临三个具体威胁，可能会迅速解除这一举措。英伟达（Nvidia）领衔的繁忙的美国财报可能会重置科技叙事，周五的美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）是美联储首选的通胀指标，可以重新定价降息预期，以及国内头条新闻，这些头条新闻给加拿大的增长前景蒙上了阴影。在当地方面，加拿大航空公司股价下跌0.7%，原因是薪酬纠纷有可能再次扰乱机组人员，迫使投资者下调远期现金流，而即将公布的第二季度GDP数据和持续的关税不确定性给权重金融、科技和工业企业带来了压力，使其股价大幅下跌。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.6% to close at 28,170 on Monday, surrendering last week’s record as profit taking met a crowded calendar of near term risks. Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks had earlier lifted rate cut odds and drawn money into equities, but markets now face three concrete threats that could quickly unwind that move. A busy US earnings slate led by Nvidia which could reset the tech narrative, Friday’s US core PCE print that is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and can reprice rate cut expectations, and domestic headlines that cloud Canada’s growth outlook. On the local front Air Canada slid 0.7% amid a pay dispute that risks renewed crew disruption and forces investors to mark down forward cash flows, while upcoming Q2 GDP figures and persistent tariff uncertainty pressured heavyweight financial, technology, and industrial names trading firmly in the red.