木 (Lumber) 加自选

在最新通胀数据、高实际利率、更清晰的财政信号和温和的外部背景下，6月份巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率超过5.55，为近八个月来的最高水平。5月份的整体通胀率降至5.32%，令人惊讶的是，尽管连续第七个月仍超过目标，但这加强了央行最近的加息。Copom将基准利率上调至14.75%，为17年来的最高点，同时暗示可能会暂停，这保留了巴西的实质性套利优势，维持了强劲的投资组合流入。在财政方面，政府同意“重新调整”IOF调整，消除了许多不确定性，缩小了主权利差，并在一定程度上恢复了人们对巴西财政轨迹的信心。从外部来看，有报道称，美中在伦敦的出口管制谈判进展顺利，这缓解了全球避险情绪，并为大宗商品挂钩货币提供了支持，进一步支撑了雷亚尔的上涨。

The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.55 per USD in June, its strongest level in nearly eight months, amid latest inflation data, high real interest rates, clearer fiscal signals, and a milder external backdrop. May’s headline inflation eased to 5.32%, surprising to the downside while still exceeding the target for a seventh consecutive month, reinforcing the Central Bank’s latest rate hike. Copom’s move to raise the Selic to 14.75%, a 17-year high, while signaling a likely pause, preserved Brazil’s substantial carry advantage, sustaining strong portfolio inflows. On the fiscal front, the administration’s agreement to “recalibrate” the IOF adjustment has dispelled much uncertainty, narrowing sovereign spreads and somewhat restoring confidence in Brazil’s fiscal trajectory. Externally, reports that US–China export-controls talks in London are progressing smoothly have eased global risk aversion and lent support to commodity-linked currencies, further underpinning the real’s advance.