瑞典10年期国债 (Sweden10Y) 加自选

瑞典服务业采购经理人指数从前一个月向上修正的53.8攀升至2025年9月的57.7，标志着连续第二个月扩张。这是自2022年8月以来记录的最强劲增长，主要是由于业务量（8月份为62比54）和交付时间（57.2比54）的急剧增加，以及就业率的显著改善（52.9比45.3），这是一年多来首次进入扩张领域。在价格方面，由于原材料和中间产品指数（53.5比55.8）下降，通胀压力有所缓和。瑞典银行分析师Jörgen Kennemar表示：“服务业很难在增长区站稳脚跟，但现在显示出明显的复苏迹象，尽管9月份的结果不应被过度解读。从长远来看，瑞典央行的低利率和扩张性财政政策可能会提振服务业，这可能反映在9月份的强劲数据中。”。

The Services PMI in Sweden climbed to 57.7 in September 2025 from an upwardly revised 53.8 in the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of expansion. This was the strongest growth recorded since August 2022, primarily driven by a sharp increase in business volume (62 vs 54 in August) and delivery times (57.2 vs 54), along with a notable improvement in employment (52.9 vs 45.3), which entered expansion territory for the first time in over a year. On the price front, inflationary pressures moderated as the index for raw and intermediate goods (53.5 vs 55.8) declined. "The service sector has had difficulty establishing itself in the growth zone but is now showing signs of a clear recovery, although the September outcome should not be overinterpreted. Lower interest rates from the Riksbank and an expansionary fiscal policy may in the long term lift the service sector, something that may be reflected in the strong September figures," says Jörgen Kennemar, a Swedbank analyst.

瑞典瑞典银行制造业采购经理人指数从8月份的55.3升至2025年9月的55.6，为2022年春季以来的最高水平。最大的贡献来自就业（53.6比52.3），其次是新订单（57.7比57.0）和采购材料库存减少（46.9比48.4），这通常预示着未来活动将更加强劲。产量略有下降（56.9比57.9），但仍高于历史平均水平，而供应商交货时间大致保持稳定（53.6比53.8）。生产计划从64.5小幅降至63.8，但继续反映出制造商的乐观情绪。投入价格小幅上涨至51.0，为六个月来的最高水平，但仍远低于长期平均水平57.6，表明成本压力减弱。PMI分析师Jörgen Kennemar指出，在订单增长的推动下，第三季度是瑞典工业三年来最好的季度，尽管克朗走强、欧元区需求疲软和贸易政策不确定性等风险依然存在。

Sweden’s Swedbank Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 in September 2025 from 55.3 in August, marking the highest reading since spring 2022. The strongest contribution came from employment (53.6 vs 52.3), followed by new orders (57.7 vs 57.0) and leaner inventories of purchased materials (46.9 vs 48.4), which typically signal stronger future activity. Production eased slightly (56.9 vs 57.9) but stayed above its historical average, while supplier delivery times remained broadly stable (53.6 vs 53.8). Production plans slipped modestly to 63.8 from 64.5 but continued to reflect optimism among manufacturers. Input prices edged up to 51.0, the highest in six months though still well below the long-term average of 57.6, suggesting subdued cost pressures. PMI analyst Jörgen Kennemar noted Q3 was the best for Swedish industry in three years, driven by order growth, though risks linger from a stronger krona, sluggish eurozone demand, and trade policy uncertainty.

瑞典零售额在上个月下调2.8%后，于2025年8月同比增长4.4%。这标志着连续第三个月的增长，也是自4月以来最快的增长速度，主要得益于耐用品需求的强劲增长（7月份为7.9%，7月份为4.4%）。与此同时，消费品销售额增长0.6%，略低于7月份0.7%的增长。8月份零售额环比增长0.9%，7月份上调0.4%。在6月至8月期间，销售额比前三个月（3月至5月）增长了0.8%。

Retail sales in Sweden increased by 4.4% year-on-year in August 2025, following a downwardly revised 2.8% rise in the previous month. This marked the third straight month of growth and the fastest pace since April, driven largely by stronger demand for durable goods (7.9% vs 4.4% in July). Meanwhile, consumable sales rose by 0.6%, easing slightly from a 0.7% gain in July. On a monthly basis, retail sales grew by 0.9% in August, after an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in July. Over the June–August period, sales were up 0.8% compared with the previous three-month period (March-May).

2025年8月，瑞典的贸易逆差扩大到89亿瑞典克朗，而去年同期为63亿瑞典克朗。出口同比下降5.1%，至1440亿瑞典克朗，为三年半以来的最低水平，受欧盟国家（-9.4%，至793亿瑞典克朗）和非欧盟市场（-7.7%，至647亿丹麦克朗）销售疲软的影响。与此同时，进口下降速度较慢，为3.2%，至1529亿瑞典克朗，反映出从欧盟合作伙伴（-2.2%，至995亿瑞典克朗）和非欧盟供应商（-5.2%，至534亿丹麦克朗）的采购减少。1月至8月，累计贸易顺差从去年同期的558亿瑞典克朗小幅降至557亿瑞典克朗。经季节性调整后，8月份的盈余从7月份的56亿瑞典克朗收窄至46亿瑞典克朗。

Sweden’s trade deficit widened to SEK 8.9 billion in August 2025, compared with SEK 6.3 billion in the same month a year earlier. Exports fell by 5.1% year-on-year to SEK 144.0 billion, marking the lowest level in more than three and a half years, weighed down by weaker sales to both EU countries (-9.4% to SEK 79.3 billion) and non-EU markets (-7.7% to SEK 64.7 billion). Meanwhile, imports declined at a slower pace of 3.2% to SEK 152.9 billion, reflecting lower purchases from EU partners (-2.2% to SEK 99.5 billion) and non-EU suppliers (-5.2% to SEK 53.4 billion). For the period from January to August, the cumulative trade surplus edged slightly lower to SEK 55.7 billion from SEK 55.8 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the surplus narrowed to SEK 4.6 billion in August from SEK 5.6 billion in July.