西班牙10年期国债 (Spain10Y) 加自选

2025年5月，西班牙的贸易逆差为25.4亿欧元，比去年同期的23.5亿欧元略有扩大，这与欧洲贸易平衡的积极倾斜形成鲜明对比，这是由于与美国的贸易敞口相对较低，这在激进的关税威胁下震惊了全球的贸易流量。由于资本货物（14.8%）、汽车和零部件（4.9%）以及原材料（10.7%）的采购量增加，进口额比上年增长1.3%，达到375.4亿欧元。来自美国的进口仅占采购量的6%（2024年5月为7.4%），下降了18.3%，因为企业已经将供应来源转向贸易战风险。值得注意的是，从加拿大的进口激增了53%以上。反过来，由于资本货物销售增加（24%）和能源出口减少（-32.7%），出口增长0.8%，至350亿欧元。对美国的出口占出口的4.4%（去年为5.1%），下降了14.4%。

Spain recorded a trade deficit of €2.54 billion in May of 2025, widening slightly from the €2.35 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year, contrasting with the positive tilt in European trade balances due to the relatively lower trade exposure with the US, which have shocked trade flows worldwide on aggressive tariff threats. Imports expanded by 1.3% from the previous year to €37.54 billion amid higher purchases of capital goods (14.8%), automobiles and parts (4.9%), and raw materials (10.7%). Imports from the US, which only make 6% of purchases (compared to 7.4% in May 2024), sank by 18.3% as firms already pivot supply sources on trade war risks. Notably, imports from Canada surged by over 53%. In turn, exports rose by a softer 0.8% to €35 billion amid higher sales of capital goods (24%) and lower exports of energy (-32.7%). Exports to the US, which make up 4.4% of exports (compared to 5.1% last year), fell by 14.4%.

2025年6月，西班牙的年通货膨胀率上升至2.3%，略高于初步估计的2.2%，打破了连续三个月的减速。这一增长反映了住房和公用事业（5月份为4.2%对3.8%）以及食品和饮料价格（2.8%对2.5%）的上涨压力加大，运输成本下降幅度较小（-0.8%对-2.0%）。6月份的核心利率（不包括食品和能源等波动性项目）为2.2%，与上月持平，证实了早期的估计。考虑到欧盟的协调，CPI年环比上涨2.3%，超过了初步的2.2%，月环比上涨0.7%，也高于早先估计的0.6%。按月计算，6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.7%，为2024年4月以来的最大涨幅，略高于初步估计的0.6%，比5月份0.1%的涨幅有所加快。

Spain's annual inflation rose to 2.3% in June 2025, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 2.2%, and breaking a three-month streak of deceleration. This increase reflected stronger upward pressure from housing & utilities (4.2% vs 3.8% in May) and food and beverage prices (2.8% vs 2.5%), and a milder drop in transport cost (-0.8% vs -2.0%). The core rate, excluding volatile items like food and energy, stood at 2.2% in June, unchanged from the prior month and confirming the early estimate. Considering the EU-harmonised, the CPI rose 2.3% on the year, beating the preliminary 2.2% reading, and increased 0.7% on the month, also above the earlier estimate of 0.6%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.7% in June, marking the steepest increase since April 2024, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 0.6% and accelerating from May’s 0.1% uptick.

西班牙6月最终CPI上涨2.3%，而预赛上涨2.2%。核心年度通胀率是更重要的指标，与5月份相比保持不变，为2.2%。这只会有助于重申欧洲央行在整个夏季保持暂停的决定。

Spain June final CPI +2.3% vs +2.2% y/y prelim.Core annual inflation, the more important reading, remains unchanged compared to May at 2.2%. This just helps to reaffirm the ECB decision to stay on pause through the summer.

2025年5月，西班牙消费者信心指数上升6.0点，至82.5，从4月份创下的17个月低点76.5反弹。这一改善是由于对当前经济形势（4月份为78.4比75.1）和家庭预期（86.5比77.9）的看法更加积极。尽管月度增长，但信心仍比2024年5月低2个百分点。

Spain’s consumer confidence rose by 6.0 points to 82.5 in May 2025, rebounding from a 17-month low of 76.5 recorded in April. The improvement was driven by more positive perceptions of both the current economic situation (78.4 vs. 75.1 in April) and household expectations (86.5 vs. 77.9). Despite the monthly uptick, confidence was still 2 points lower than in May 2024.