俄罗斯20年期国债 (Russia20Y) 加自选

俄罗斯联邦银行：俄罗斯央行在无关紧要的降息问题上走钢丝——德国商业银行。俄罗斯联邦银行：俄罗斯央行在无关紧要的降息问题上走钢丝——德国商业银行

RUB: CBR walks a tightrope with inconsequential rate cut – Commerzbank.RUB: CBR walks a tightrope with inconsequential rate cut – Commerzbank

10月，MOEX俄罗斯指数跌至2550点，创下今年迄今的低点，因为对俄罗斯的更多制裁对主要能源公司的前景和莫斯科的财政稳定造成了压力。俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油公司在美国制裁这两家石油巨头后跌至两年来的低点，这两家公司加起来占俄罗斯石油出口的一半，占联邦政府预算收入的很大一部分。印度炼油厂指出，美国政府的制裁可能会停止信实集团和国家加工商的石油订单，从而放大这些措施的影响。同样，诺瓦泰克和俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司出售了欧盟，自2027年起禁止成员国购买俄罗斯液化天然气。除此之外，尽管俄罗斯央行在其最新决定中小幅降息，但限制性政策的信号仍对股市构成压力。自8月以来，俄罗斯股市大幅下跌，因为通货膨胀加剧和国防以外的公共支出减少削弱了国内经济活动。

The MOEX Russia Index fell to 2,550 in October, testing year-to-date lows as more sanctions against Russia pressed the outlook for major energy companies and Moscow's fiscal stability. Rosneft and Lukoil plunged to two-year lows after the US sanctioned both oil giants, which together account for half of Russian oil exports and a large portion of the federal government's budget revenue. Indian refineries noted that sanctions from the US government are likely to halt oil orders from Reliance and state processors, magnifying the impact of the measures. Similarly, Novatek and Gazprom sold off the EU was set to prohibit members from buying Russian LNG as of 2027. On top of that, equities were pressured by the signal of restrictive policy by the Bank of Russia in its latest decision, despite coming with a small rate cut. Russian stocks had declined sharply since August as higher inflation and a lower public spending outside of defense dented domestic economic activity.

俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率为81.2，自第二季度达到两年高点以来保持稳定，因为严格的资本管制和高利率抵消了新制裁的影响和俄罗斯经济增长的严峻前景。美国制裁了卢克石油公司和俄罗斯石油公司，对印度的能源出口前景造成了压力，自2022年入侵乌克兰以来，印度一直是俄罗斯石油的主要消费者之一。此外，欧盟宣布将于2027年避开俄罗斯液化天然气。尽管如此，由于克里姆林宫要求出口导向型公司出售40%的外汇收入，对货币的影响不大。此外，俄罗斯央行表示，将在明年年底之前保持政策限制，以遏制通胀压力，限制其意外降息50个基点的影响。西方制裁的长期影响、优先考虑对乌克兰战争的政府支出以及高借贷成本促使国际货币基金组织预测，俄罗斯今年的国内生产总值仅增长0.6%。

The Russian ruble was at 81.2 per USD, remaining stable since reaching two-year highs in the second quarter as strict capital controls and high interest rates offset the impact of fresh sanctions and a grim outlook on Russian growth. The US sanctioned Lukoil and Rosneft, pressuring the outlook of energy exports to India, which have been among the main consumers of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Also, the EU announced it would shun Russian LNG on 2027. Still, the impact on the currency was muted as the Kremlin's mandates export-oriented companies to sell 40% of their foreign exchange revenue. Also, the Bank of Russia said it will keep policy restrictive until the end of next year to curb inflationary pressures, limiting the impact of its unexpected 50bps cut. The prolonged effect of Western sanctions, government spending that prioritizes the war against Ukraine, and high borrowing costs drove the IMF to forecast that Russia's GDP will only grow 0.6% this year.

俄罗斯央行在2025年10月的决定中将基准利率下调50个基点至16.5%，这是连续第四次降息，与市场对持有的预期形成鲜明对比。尽管降息，但央行重申，由于俄罗斯经济通胀持续存在上行风险，预计中期货币条件将保持限制性。在食品通胀居高不下的情况下，消费者通胀预期仍然较高，央行指出，这可能会因联邦政府在明年预算中表示的增值税水平提高而加剧，这是削减不断扩大的赤字以资助入侵乌克兰所必需的。该行预测，到明年年底，通货膨胀率将保持在4%的目标之上，这表明在此期间，关键利率预计将在13%至15%之间。虽然CBR指出增长仍然具有弹性，但国际货币基金组织预测今年国内生产总值仅增长0.6%。

The Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 50bps to 16.5% in its October 2025 decision, the fourth consecutive rate cut, and contrasting with market expectations of a hold. Despite the cut, the central bank reiterated that monetary conditions are expected to remain restrictive in the medium term due to persistent upside risks to inflation in the Russian economy. Consumer inflation expectations remain elevated amid the high levels of food inflation, and the central bank noted that this is likely to be magnified by price increases on higher VAT levels that the Federal government signaled in next year's budget, necessary to trim its widening deficit to finance the invasion of Ukraine. The bank forecasts inflation to remain at above the 4% target until the end of next year, signaling that the key rate is expected to range between 13% and 15% in the period. While the CBR noted that growth remains resilient, the IMF forecasted the GDP to only expand 0.6% this year.