葡萄牙3个月期国债 (Portugal3M) 加自选

据初步估计，葡萄牙的年通货膨胀率从5月份的2.3%上升到2025年6月的2.4%。这标志着自2月以来的最高水平，主要是由于食品价格的急剧上涨。未加工食品通胀加速至4.7%（从4.0%），而加工食品价格上涨1.3%（从1.1%）。相比之下，能源价格同比下跌1.3%，扭转了上月0.1%的涨幅。核心通胀率（不包括食品和能源等波动性成分）也有所上升，从2.2%上升至2.4%。与此同时，欧盟统一消费者价格指数（HICP）从1.7%攀升至2.1%，超过了欧洲央行2%的中点目标。

Portugal’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.4% in June 2025, up from 2.3% in May, according to a preliminary estimate. This marks the highest level since February, largely driven by a sharp increase in food prices. Unprocessed food inflation accelerated to 4.7% (from 4.0%), while processed food prices rose by 1.3% (from 1.1%). In contrast, energy prices fell by 1.3% year-on-year, reversing a 0.1% increase in the previous month. Core inflation—which excludes volatile components like food and energy—also picked up, rising to 2.4% from 2.2%. Meanwhile, the EU-harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) climbed to 2.1% from 1.7%, pushing above the European Central Bank’s 2% midpoint target.

2025年6月，葡萄牙的商业信心进一步上升至2.6，为四个月来的最高水平，而前一个月为2.4。服务提供商（5月份为9.4比6.1）、建筑商（4.5比3.7）以及制造商（-4.4比-4.9）的情绪有所改善。另一方面，贸易商的信心下降（2比2.8），即批发商（2比3.2）和零售商（1.9比2.3）。

Business confidence in Portugal rose further to 2.6 in June 2025, the highest in four months, from 2.4 in the preceding month. Sentiment improved among service providers (9.4 vs 6.1 in May), constructors (4.5 vs 3.7) and, to a lesser extent, manufacturers (-4.4 vs -4.9). On the other hand, confidence decreased for traders (2 vs 2.8), namely wholesalers (2 vs 3.2) and retailers (1.9 vs 2.3).

葡萄牙的消费者信心指数从5月份的-18.2微升至2025年6月的-17.6，表明在持续的不确定性中，情况有所改善。对该国整体经济前景（-26.0比5月的-29.7）、储蓄预期（-20.4比-21.5）和家庭财务状况（-4.2比-4.8）的看法有所改善。然而，随着消费者对当前经济形势（-35.6对-33.2）、家庭财务（-10.7对-9.7）和重大购买环境（-29.3对-28.6）越来越消极，悲观情绪进一步加深。此外，失业预期略有恶化，从23.1降至22.6，表明对劳动力市场的担忧加剧。

The consumer confidence indicator for Portugal ticked up slightly to -17.6 in June 2025 from -18.2 in May, signaling tentative improvement amid persistent uncertainty. Sentiment improved regarding the country’s overall economic outlook (-26.0 vs. -29.7 in May), saving expectations (-20.4 vs. -21.5), and household financial situation (-4.2 vs. -4.8). However, pockets of pessimism deepened, with consumers growing more negative about the current economic situation (-35.6 vs. -33.2), household finances (-10.7 vs. -9.7), and the climate for major purchases (-29.3 vs. -28.6). In addition, expectations on unemployment worsened slightly, declining to 22.6 from 23.1, signaling increased concerns over the labor market.

2025年5月，葡萄牙工业生产者价格同比下降3.1%，较4月份下调后的2.6%有所加速。这是自2023年12月以来最大的年度跌幅，主要原因是能源价格大幅下跌（-7.2%对-5.6%）、非耐用消费品（-4.1%对-4.0%），特别是橄榄油和中间产品（-2.4%对-1.9%）。相比之下，上涨压力来自耐用消费品，增长3.2%（与4月持平），以及资本品，增长略快，为0.9%（对0.7%）。按月计算，5月份生产者价格指数小幅下跌0.1%，此前4月和3月的跌幅均超过1%。

Portugal's industrial producer prices fell by 3.1% year-on-year in May 2025, accelerating from a downwardly revised 2.6% decline in April. This marked the steepest annual drop since December 2023, largely driven by sharp decreases in energy prices (-7.2% vs -5.6%), non-durable consumer goods (-4.1% vs -4.0%) — particularly olive oil — and intermediate goods (-2.4% vs -1.9%). In contrast, upward pressure came from consumer durable goods, which rose by 3.2% (unchanged from April), and capital goods, which saw a slightly faster increase of 0.9% (vs 0.7%). On a monthly basis, producer prices edged down 0.1% in May, following more significant declines of over 1% in both April and March.