波兰10年期国债 (Poland10Y) 加自选

标准普尔全球波兰制造业采购经理人指数从8月份的46.6升至2025年9月的48.0，略高于市场预期的46.4。虽然仍低于50.0的阈值，但该指数创下五个月新高，连续第三个月上涨，表明制造业的衰退正在逐渐放缓。新订单连续第六个月下降，尽管下降速度放缓至5月以来的最低水平。产出连续第五个月下滑，就业继续下降，尽管幅度不大。采购库存以4月以来最慢的速度减少，供应商的交货时间略有延长，表明供应链压力减弱。随着投入价格以1月以来最快的速度下跌，产出价格小幅下跌，通货膨胀有所缓解。积压的工作在三年多来仅第二次增加，表明产能利用率略有回升。

The S&P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.0 in September 2025 from 46.6 in August and slightly above market expectations of 46.4. While remaining below the 50.0 threshold, the reading marked a five-month high and the third consecutive monthly increase, signaling a gradual moderation in the manufacturing sector’s downturn. New orders fell for the sixth consecutive month, though the pace of decline eased to its slowest since May. Output slipped for the fifth month, and employment continued to fall for the seventh month, albeit marginally. Stocks of purchases were reduced at the slowest pace since April, and suppliers’ delivery times lengthened slightly, indicating subdued supply chain pressures. Inflation eased as input prices fell at the fastest pace since January and output prices edged lower. Backlogs of work increased for only the second time in over three years, suggesting a mild recovery in capacity utilization.

初步估计，波兰9月份的年通胀率稳定在2.9%，与上月持平，为2024年6月以来的最低水平。个人运输设备燃料价格的下降（-4.9%）被食品和非酒精饮料（+4.2%）以及电力、天然气和其他燃料（+2.4%）的成本上涨所抵消。按月计算，9月份消费者价格持平，与8月份持平。

Poland’s annual inflation held steady at 2.9% in September, unchanged from last month and marking the lowest reading since June 2024, according to preliminary estimates. A drop in fuel prices for personal transport equipment (-4.9%) was offset by higher costs for food and non-alcoholic beverages (+4.2%) and electricity, gas, and other fuels (+2.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat in September, matching August’s pace.

波兰的失业率从上个月的5.4%上升到2025年8月的5.5%，与市场预期相符。最新数据标志着自2023年2月以来的最高读数，因为登记失业人数比上月增加了25.5万人，达到85.63万人。去年8月，失业率降至5.0%。

Poland’s unemployment rate rose to 5.5% in August 2025 from 5.4% in the previous month, matching market expectations. The latest figure marked the highest reading since February 2023, as the number of registered unemployed persons climbed by 25.5 thousand from a month earlier to 856.3 thousand. In August last year, the jobless rate was lower at 5.0%.

2025年8月，波兰零售额同比增长3.1%，较7月的4.8%有所回落，低于市场预期的3.3%的涨幅。销售放缓主要是家具、收音机、电视和家用电器（7月份为13.9%对15.3%）、药品、化妆品和骨科设备（3.3%对4.9%）以及机动车、摩托车、零部件（9.4%对10.7%）。此外，报纸、书籍、专卖店的其他销售额下降（-2%对3%），而食品、饮料和烟草制品的贸易进一步下降（-3.4%对-0.4%）。与此同时，纺织品、服装和鞋类（18.9%对14.7%）以及固体、液体和气体燃料（6.1%对0.7%）的销售额增长更快。8月份零售活动环比下降0.4%，扭转了上月4.4%的增长。

Retail sales in Poland rose by 3.1% year-on-year in August 2025, easing from a 4.8% increase in July and below market expectations of a 3.3% advance. Sales slowed mostly for furniture, radio, TV and household appliances (13.9% vs 15.3% in July), pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and orthopedic equipment (3.3% vs 4.9%), and motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts (9.4% vs 10.7%). Additionally, trade declined for newspapers, books, other sales in specialized stores (-2% vs 3%), while it fell further for food, beverages and tobacco products (-3.4% vs -0.4%). Meanwhile, sales increased faster for textiles, clothing and footwear (18.9% vs 14.7%) and solid, liquid and gaseous fuels (6.1% vs 0.7%). On a monthly basis, retail activity dropped by 0.4% in August, reversing a 4.4% growth in the previous month.