波兰10年期国债 (Poland10Y) 加自选

波兰的失业率从上个月的5.5%微升至2025年9月的5.6%，符合市场预期。这标志着自2023年2月以来的最高失业率，登记失业人数比上月增加了9800人，达到86.61万人。2024年9月，失业率降至5.0%。

Poland’s unemployment rate edged up to 5.6% in September 2025 from 5.5% in the previous month, in line with market expectations. This marked the highest jobless rate since February 2023, as the number of registered unemployed persons rose by 9.8 thousand from a month earlier to 866.1 thousand. In September 2024, the jobless rate was lower at 5.0%.

波兰制造业的总体商业环境指标在2025年10月降至-8.0，为2月以来的最低水平，低于9月的-6.5。运营挑战加剧，52.4%的公司报告成本上升，38.2%的公司面临供应链中断的主要影响。其他困难，如销售额下降32.3%和与东部承包商的合同终止14.0%，则不太常见。与此同时，其他行业指标显示，与9月份相比，情况趋于稳定或略有恶化，其中住宿和餐饮服务下降幅度最大。金融和保险活动仍然是最积极的，为+23.6，低于长期平均值+25.4，而建筑业则是第二悲观的，为-7.3，也低于其长期平均值-3.6。

The general business climate indicator in manufacturing for Poland fell to -8.0 in October 2025, the weakest reading since February, and down from -6.5 in September. Operational challenges intensified, with 52.4% of companies reporting higher costs and 38.2% facing supply chain disruptions as the main impacts. Other difficulties, such as declines in sales at 32.3% and ending contracts with eastern contractors at 14.0%, were less common. Meanwhile, other sector indicators showed stabilisation or slight deterioration compared with September, with the largest drop in accommodation and food services. Financial and insurance activities remained the most positive at +23.6, below the long-term mean of +25.4, while construction was next most pessimistic at -7.3, also below its long-term average of -3.6.

波兰消费者信心指数从9月份的-8.3降至2025年10月的-10.9。这一下降主要反映了对当前（-24.2比9月的-19.3）和未来（-16.1比-11.5）经济形势的评估不断恶化。家庭财务状况也在过去12个月（-5.3对-3.2）和未来12个月内（-4.0对-2.3）恶化。支出意愿减弱，未来重要采购计划下滑（-29.7对-28.7），当前采购下滑（-5.0对-5.3）。当前储蓄略有改善（-1.1比-6.7），而未来储蓄保持稳定（13.4比13.6）。价格预期仍然较高，过去的趋势有所缓和（58.0比60.3），预期通货膨胀率上升（24.2比20.9）。失业预期也有所恶化（-19.6比-16.9）。追踪预期消费趋势的领先消费者信心指数也下跌2.3点，至-6.6点。

The Polish consumer sentiment indicator fell to -10.9 in October 2025 from -8.3 in September. This decline largely reflected worsening assessments of the current (-24.2 vs -19.3 in September) and future (-16.1 vs -11.5) economic situation. Household financial conditions also deteriorated, both over the past 12 months (-5.3 vs -3.2) and for the next 12 months (-4.0 vs -2.3). Spending intentions weakened, with plans for future important purchases slipping (-29.7 vs -28.7) and current purchases (-5.0 vs -5.3). Current savings improved slightly (-1.1 vs -6.7), while future savings held steady (13.4 vs 13.6). Price expectations remained elevated, with past trends easing (58.0 vs 60.3) and expected inflation rising (24.2 vs 20.9). Unemployment expectations also worsened (-19.6 vs -16.9). The leading consumer confidence indicator, tracking expected consumption trends, also fell 2.3 points to -6.6.

2025年9月，波兰零售额同比增长6.4%，高于上个月的3.1%，低于市场预期的6.8%。这是自4月以来最强劲的增长，因为纺织品、服装和鞋类（20.5%对18.9%）、家具、收音机、电视和家用电器（16.1%对13.9%）、机动车、摩托车、零部件（15.0%对9.4%）、固体、液体和气体燃料（7.1%对6.1%）以及药品、化妆品和骨科设备（4.4%对3.3%）的销售额增长。此外，食品、饮料和烟草制品（0.2%对-3.4%）以及报纸、书籍和其他专卖店销售（0.1%对-2%）的贸易有所恢复。按月计算，9月份零售活动下降2.7%，而前一个月下降0.4%。

Retail sales in Poland rose by 6.4% year-on-year in September 2025 from 3.1% in the previous month and below market expectations of 6.8% advance. This marked the strongest growth since April as sales grew for textiles, clothing and footwear (20.5% vs 18.9%), furniture, radio, TV and household appliances (16.1% vs 13.9%), motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts (15.0% vs 9.4%), solid, liquid and gaseous fuels (7.1% vs 6.1%), and pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and orthopedic equipment (4.4% vs 3.3%). Additionally, trade recovered for food, beverages and tobacco products (0.2% vs -3.4%) and newspapers, books, and other sales in specialized stores (0.1% vs -2%). On a monthly basis, retail activity dropped by 2.7% in September, following a 0.4% fall in the preceding month.