挪威10年期国债 (Norway10Y) 加自选

挪威的工业信心指数从第一季度向下修正的3.4降至2025年第二季度的0.9，低于2.9的历史平均水平。这标志着自2024年第一季度以来的最低读数，资本品和消费品生产商的情绪减弱，而中间产品生产商则做出了积极贡献。出口市场的新订单略有下降，而国内市场的订单没有变化。与此同时，大多数中间产品和消费品生产商的产量略有增加，而资本品生产商则明显增加。许多行业经理指出，国内和出口市场的价格都在上涨，消费品生产商的成本价格增长最快。从积极的方面来看，整体就业有所增加，资本货物生产商对增长贡献最大。展望未来，2025年第三季度的总体前景是中性的。

Norway’s industrial confidence indicator dropped to 0.9 in Q2 2025, from a downwardly revised 3.4 in Q1 and below the historical average of 2.9. This marked the lowest reading since Q1 2024, amid weaker sentiment among producers of both capital goods and consumer goods, while producers of intermediate goods contributed positively. New orders from the export markets slightly declined, while those from the domestic markets were unchanged. Meanwhile, most intermediate goods and consumer goods producers reported a small increase in production, whereas producers of capital goods saw a clear rise. Many industrial managers noted rising prices in both domestic and export markets, with consumer goods producers experiencing the sharpest growth in cost prices. On a positive note, overall employment increased, with producers of capital goods responsible for most of the growth. Looking ahead, the general outlook for Q3 2025 is neutral.

挪威经季节性调整的失业率从前一个月的4.6%攀升至2025年6月的5.4%。这是自2021年5月以来的最高读数，失业人数比上月增加了2.7万人，达到16.8万人。与此同时，就业率从上月的69.8%上升到八个月来的最高点70%，就业人数增加了1.3万人，达到291.9万人。劳动力参与率从5月份向上修正的73.2%上升到6月份的74.1%，为2009年3月以来的最高水平。与此同时，衡量15至24岁求职者人数的青年失业率从2025年5月的14%跃升至15.7%的五年高点。

Norway’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate climbed to 5.4% in June 2025 from 4.6% in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since May 2021, as the number of unemployed persons increased by 27 thousand from a month earlier to 168 thousand. Meanwhile, the employment rate rose to an eight-month high of 70% from 69.8% in the previous month, with the number of employed individuals increasing by 13 thousand to 2.919 million. The labor force participation rate went up to 74.1% in June—the highest level since March 2009—from an upwardly revised 73.2% in May. In the meantime, the youth unemployment rate, which measures the number of job-seekers aged 15 to 24, jumped to a five-year high of 15.7%, from 14% in May 2025.

由于出口下降而进口增加，挪威的贸易顺差从去年同期的666亿挪威克朗缩小到2025年6月的474亿挪威克朗。出口同比下降9.5%，至1394亿挪威克朗，主要原因是矿物燃料、润滑油和相关材料（-13.9%）以及机械和运输设备（-11.9%）的销售额下降。与此同时，进口增长5.2%，达到920亿挪威克朗，主要原因是机械和运输设备（9%）、主要按材料分类的制成品（16.9%）和杂项制成品（6.4%）的采购增加。今年上半年，该国贸易顺差总额为3812亿挪威克朗，比去年同期增长5.9%。

Norway's trade surplus narrowed to NOK 47.4 billion in June 2025 from NOK 66.6 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year, as exports dropped while imports increased. Exports declined by 9.5% year-on-year to NOK 139.4 billion, primarily due to lower sales of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (-13.9%) and machinery and transport equipment (-11.9%). Meanwhile, imports grew by 5.2% to NOK 92.0 billion, driven mainly by increased purchases of machinery and transport equipment (9%), manufactured goods classified chiefly by material (16.9%), and miscellaneous manufactured articles (6.4%). For the first half of the year, the country’s trade surplus totaled NOK 381.2 billion, marking a 5.9% rise compared to the same period last year.

2025年6月，挪威的年度消费者通胀率为3%，与5月持平，保持在2月以来的最高水平。主要的上行压力来自交通（5月份为1.9%对0.9%）、娱乐和文化（4%对2.7%）、餐馆和酒店（3.5%对3.1%）以及杂项商品和服务（1.1%对0.9%）的通胀率上升。与此同时，食品和非酒精饮料（4.7%对5.3%）、住房和公用事业（4.2%对5.1%）以及家具、家用设备和维护（0.1%对0.7%）的通货膨胀有所缓解。按月计算，6月份消费者价格指数上涨0.2%，低于5月份的0.4%，为三个月来最小涨幅。经税收变化调整的CPI（不包括能源产品）同比增长3.1%，超过了市场预期的3%的增长。这标志着三个月来的最高读数，并从5月份的2.8%上升加速。

The annual consumer inflation rate in Norway stood at 3% in June 2025, unchanged from May and holding at its highest level since February. The main upward pressure came from higher inflation in transport (1.9% vs 0.9% in May), recreation and culture (4% vs 2.7%), restaurants and hotels (3.5% vs 3.1%), and miscellaneous goods and services (1.1% vs 0.9%). Meanwhile, inflation eased for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.7% vs 5.3%), housing and utilities (4.2% vs 5.1%), and furnishings, household equipment, and maintenance (0.1% vs 0.7%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in June, down from a 0.4% increase in May, marking the smallest gain in three months. The CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) rose 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of a 3% increase. This marked the highest reading in three months and accelerated from a 2.8% rise in May.