意大利2年期国债 (Italy2Y) 加自选

周五，富时MIB指数上涨0.4%，收于40760点，表现优于其他主要欧洲指数，这得益于埃尼和Moncler乐观的企业盈利。埃尼集团股价上涨1.8%，此前该公司公布了强于预期的业绩，净债务下降，该公司提高了其天然气和液化天然气部门的全年目标以及成本节约措施。Moncler在第二季度盈利强劲后上涨2.9%。与此同时，欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德重申了央行的谨慎立场，淡化了9月份降息的可能性，尽管通胀率达到了2%的目标。随着8月1日关税最后期限的临近，投资者还期待着下周的美联储会议，并关注着与美国正在进行的贸易谈判。在数据方面，意大利消费者信心在7月份小幅上升，而商业信心在两个月的上涨后有所下滑。在其他上涨因素中，Interpump上涨5%，Nexi上涨3.3%，而Saipem（-3.3%）和普睿司曼（-1.4%）则出现亏损。

The FTSE MIB rose 0.4% to close at 40,760 on Friday, outperforming other major European indices, supported by upbeat corporate earnings from Eni and Moncler. Eni gained 1.8% after reporting stronger-than-expected results, net debt fell and the company improved its full-year target for its gas and LNG division and cost-saving measures. Moncler climbed 2.9% following robust Q2 earnings. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the central bank's cautious stance, downplaying the likelihood of a rate cut in September despite inflation hitting the 2% target. Investors also looked ahead to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and watched ongoing trade negotiations with the US, as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. On the data front, Italian consumer confidence edged higher in July, while business sentiment slipped after two months of gains. Among other movers, Interpump jumped 5% and Nexi added 3.3%, while Saipem (-3.3%) and Prysmian (-1.4%) posted losses.

意大利制造业信心指数从前一个月的87.3升至2025年7月的87.8，为2024年5月以来的最高水平，略高于市场预期的87.7。这一改善是由于对订单（6月份为3.2比1.5）、销售价格（6.9比6.2）、就业（1.6比1.0）和生产（1.4比1.1）的预期增强。然而，在某些领域，市场情绪仍然脆弱，企业对流动性状况（-6.8对-5.9）和总体经济前景（-17.8对-17.1）表达了更悲观的看法，这表明尽管运营指标有所改善，但对更广泛的金融和宏观经济稳定仍持持续担忧。

The manufacturing confidence index in Italy rose to 87.8 in July 2025 from 87.3 in the previous month, marking its highest level since May 2024 and slightly beating market expectations of 87.7. The improvement was driven by stronger expectations for orders (3.2 vs 1.5 in June), selling prices (6.9 vs 6.2), employment (1.6 vs 1.0), and production (1.4 vs 1.1). However, sentiment remained fragile in some areas, with firms expressing more pessimistic views regarding liquidity conditions (-6.8 vs -5.9) and the general economic outlook (-17.8 vs -17.1), suggesting persistent concerns over broader financial and macroeconomic stability despite improving operational indicators.

意大利10年期政府债券收益率攀升至3.6%以上，达到5月23日以来的最高水平，原因是投资者降低了对欧洲央行进一步降息的预期，并在欧盟-美国贸易谈判发出令人鼓舞的信号后，从避险资产转移。欧洲央行在7月份保持利率稳定，在过去一年连续八次降息后暂停。此举的部分原因是，在8月1日的关键最后期限之前，与特朗普政府的贸易谈判存在不确定性。此外，欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，随着通胀率回升至2%的目标，欧元区“处于良好状态”，这表明未来将采取更为谨慎的态度。报告显示，欧盟和美国即将达成协议，对部分欧洲进口产品征收15%的关税，同时取消对其他国家的关税。交易员现在认为9月份降息的可能性只有25%，而到12月降息的可能性已从欧洲央行决定前的90%以上降至70%左右。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 3.6%, reaching its highest level since May 23, as investors reduced their expectations for additional ECB rate cuts and shifted away from safe-haven assets amid encouraging signals from EU–US trade negotiations. The ECB held interest rates steady in July, pausing after eight consecutive cuts over the past year. The move was partly driven by uncertainty surrounding trade talks with the Trump administration, ahead of a key August 1 deadline. Also, ECB President Lagarde stated that the bloc was “in a good place” as inflation returned to the 2% target, suggesting a more cautious approach going forward. Reports indicate that the EU and US are nearing an agreement that would impose 15% tariffs on select European imports while removing duties on others. Traders now assign just a 25% probability of a rate cut in September, while the chances of a cut by December have fallen to around 70%, down from more than 90% prior to the ECB’s decision.

周五，富时MIB指数徘徊在40600点附近，本周将上涨0.7%，因为市场除了关键的企业盈利结果外，还继续评估欧洲货币和贸易政策的前景。本周早些时候的报道显示，欧盟官员在与美国同行的贸易谈判中取得了进展，提高了人们对一项将美国关税从目前的30%降至15%的协议的信心。尽管如此，在欧洲央行对进一步削减的紧迫性进行反击后，信贷条件的前景被修正为收紧。埃尼集团股价持平，此前该公司未达到预期，但上调了今年的预期，尽管这家石油巨头指出，欧元走强和低油价仍然存在利润上升的风险。与此同时，Stellantis上涨了2%，以扩大其在美国对日本和欧盟征收关税期间的波动势头。在国内数据方面，7月份商业和消费者信心都有所改善。

The FTSE MIB hovered close to the flatline at the 40,600 level on Friday, set to gain a 0.7% on the week as markets continued to assess the outlook on Europe's monetary and trade policy, in addition to key corporate earnings results. Reports from earlier in the week indicated that EU officials made progress in trade talks with their US counterparts, raising confidence over a deal that lowers US tariffs to 15% from the current threats of 30%. Still, the outlook for credit conditions were revised to the tighter side after the ECB pushed back against urgency for further cuts. ENI stocks were flat after they missed estimates but upgraded guidance for the year, although the oil giant noted that a strong euro and low oil prices remain risks against higher profits. In the meantime, Stellantis added 2% to extend its volatile momentum amid its exposure to US tariffs on Japan and the EU. On the domestic data front, both business and consumer confidence improved in July.