意大利20年期国债 (Italy20Y) 加自选

周五，富时MIB指数上涨0.4%，收于43258点，得益于积极的企业消息和大多数重量级银行的上涨。由于市场继续评估其并购前景，Banco BPM上涨1.5%，而联合圣保罗银行和联合信贷银行各上涨0.6%。另一方面，MPS（-0.9%）和Mediobanca（-0.6%）下降。忠利石油捷克分公司在第二季度将其持有的埃克森美孚股份削减25.2%后，股价有所回落。此外，Stellantis因强劲的车辆登记数据而上涨2%，TIM在宣布了一项到2027年扩大ICT基础设施的10亿欧元投资计划后上涨2.6%，Banca Akros重申了“买入”评级，并将目标价格提高到0.52欧元。在数据方面，意大利服务业采购经理人指数升至52.5，超过预期，达到5月以来的最高水平，而综合采购经理人指数保持在51.7，表明第三季度增长温和。

The FTSE MIB gained 0.4% to close at 43,258 on Friday on support from positive corporate news and gains for a majority of heavyweight banks. Banco BPM jumped 1.5% as markets continued to assessed its M&A outlook, while Intesa Sanpaolo and UniCredit each rose 0.6%. On the other hand, MPS (-0.9%) and Mediobanca (-0.6%) fell. Generali eased after its Czech branch cut its Exxon Mobil stake by 25.2% in Q2. Also, Stellantis extended gains with a 2% jump on strong vehicle registration data, and TIM jumped 2.6% after announcing a €1 billion investment plan through 2027 to expand ICT infrastructure, with Banca Akros reaffirming a “buy” rating and raising its target price to €0.52. On the data front, the Italian services PMI rose to 52.5, beating forecasts and reaching its highest since May, while the composite PMI held at 51.7, signaling modest Q3 growth.

在持续的财政改善的支撑下，意大利10年期BTP收益率徘徊在3.54%左右，接近9月中旬的低点。意大利的目标是在2025年将预算赤字削减至GDP的3%，这是自2019年以来首次达到欧盟的上限，低于之前的3.3%的目标，这得益于税收收入强于预期和偿债成本降低。然而，由于美国贸易关税对经济活动造成压力，经济势头仍然疲软，促使2025年GDP增长预测从0.6%下调至0.5%，2026年预测从0.8%下调至0.7%。与此同时，意大利的公共债务比率——仅次于希腊的欧元区第二高——预计将在2026年升至GDP的137.4%，然后逐渐下降。在欧元区，新的通胀压力正在强化人们对欧洲央行在当前周期内不会进一步降息的预期。

The yield on the Italian 10-year BTP hovered around 3.54%, edging toward the mid-September low, underpinned by ongoing fiscal improvement. Italy aims to cut its budget deficit to 3% of GDP in 2025, complying with the EU ceiling for the first time since 2019 and below the previous 3.3% target, driven by stronger-than-expected tax revenues and lower debt servicing costs. However, economic momentum remains subdued as US trade tariffs weigh on activity, prompting a downward revision of the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.6% and of the 2026 projection to 0.7% from 0.8%. Meanwhile, Italy’s public debt ratio— the second highest in the euro area after Greece— is expected to rise to 137.4% of GDP in 2026 before gradually declining thereafter. In the Eurozone, renewed inflationary pressures are reinforcing expectations that the ECB will refrain from further rate cuts in the current cycle.

2025年8月，意大利零售贸易环比下降0.1%，此前7月持平，略低于市场预期。食品销售额连续第二个月下降（-0.1%，而7月份为-0.4%），而非食品销售额在经历了四个月的增长后有所下滑（-0.1%对0.3%）。按年计算，零售贸易增长从1.8%急剧放缓至0.5%，受食品销售增长放缓（1.6%对2.9%）和非食品销售下降（-0.2%对1.0%）的拖累。跌幅最大的是家用电器、收音机、电视和录音机以及药品，均下跌3.4%。

Italy’s retail trade fell 0.1% month-on-month in August 2025, following a flat reading in July and slightly below market expectations. Food sales declined for a second consecutive month (-0.1% vs -0.4% in July), while non-food sales slipped after four months of growth (-0.1% vs 0.3%). On an annual basis, retail trade growth slowed sharply to 0.5% from 1.8%, weighed down by a softer rise in food sales (1.6% vs 2.9%) and a drop in non-food sales (-0.2% vs 1.0%). The largest declines were seen in household appliances, radios, televisions and tape recorders, and pharmaceutical products, both down 3.4%.

富时MIB指数周五攀升至43300点左右，徘徊在8月下旬最后一次触及的18年高点附近，与更广泛的欧洲市场保持一致。银行股领涨，此前有报道称，欧盟将放松对与俄罗斯寡头奥列格·德里帕斯卡有关的资产的制裁，以补偿Raiffeisen Bank International在俄罗斯的损失。BPM银行、Mediolanum银行和忠利银行均上涨超过1%。对人工智能的乐观情绪也提振了市场情绪，提振了科技股。意大利电信领涨，涨幅近5%，而基础设施无线和意法半导体分别上涨0.9%和0.4%。在数据方面，最新的PMI调查显示意大利私营部门持续扩张。9月综合PMI保持在51.7，而服务业PMI升至52.5，为5月以来的最高水平。本周，该指数连续第二年步入正轨

The FTSE MIB climbed to around 43,300 on Friday, hovering near the 18-year high last touched in late August and moving in line with broader European markets. Gains were led by banking shares after reports that the EU is set to ease sanctions on assets linked to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska to compensate Raiffeisen Bank International for losses in Russia. Banco BPM, Banca Mediolanum, and Banca Generali each rose more than 1%. Optimism around artificial intelligence also supported sentiment, boosting technology stocks. Telecom Italia led the advance with a nearly 5% gain, while Infrastrutture Wireless and STMicroelectronics added 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively. On the data front, fresh PMI surveys indicated sustained expansion in Italy’s private sector. The composite PMI held at 51.7 in September, while the services PMI rose to 52.5, the highest level since May. For the week, the index is on track for a second consecutive