匈牙利10年期国债 (Hungary10Y) 加自选

匈牙利的失业率从一年前同期的4.4%上升到2025年7月至9月的4.5%。失业人数比去年同期减少3.1万人，至22.15万人。其中，12.01万人为男性，失业率高达4.6%，1.013万人为女性，失业率为4.4%。平均求职时间为11.2个月。在失业者中，45.6%的人找工作不到3个月，29.3%的人找了至少一年。与此同时，就业人数下降了29.5万人，至46.791亿人。男性就业人数减少21.4万人，至24.698亿人，而女性就业人数减少8000人，至22.094亿人。

The unemployment rate in Hungary rose to 4.5% in July-September 2025 from 4.4% the corresponding period a year ago. The number of unemployed individuals decreased by 3.1 thousand from a year earlier to 221.5 thousand. Of this total, 120.1 thousand were men, with their unemployment rate up to 4.6%, while 101.3 thousand were women and their unemployment rate was 4.4%. The average time spent looking for a job was 11.2 months. Among the unemployed, 45.6% had been seeking work for less than 3 months, while 29.3% had been looking for at least a year. Meanwhile, the number of employed persons declined by 29.5 thousand to 4,679.1 million. Employment among men fell by 21.4 thousand to 2,469.8 million, while employment among women decreased by 8 thousand to 2,209.4 million.

10月21日，匈牙利国家银行连续第十三次会议将关键利率维持在6.50%不变，为欧盟最高利率，符合市场预期。隔夜存款和抵押贷款利率也保持在5.5%和7.5%。8月份，整体通胀率连续第二个月保持在4.3%，高于央行2-4%的目标区间。国内经济表现喜忧参半，零售增长放缓，工业和建筑产出下降，但订单量反弹。Magyar Nemzeti Bank（MNB）预计，从2026年开始，经济增长将逐渐加速，主要得益于出口和投资的强劲增长。从外部来看，持续的贸易紧张局势和地缘政治风险对全球前景构成压力。在短期内，尽管政府施压要求降息，但央行强调了谨慎和耐心的态度，市场普遍预计今年剩余时间不会降息。

The National Bank of Hungary held its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% for the thirteenth consecutive meeting on October 21, the highest in the EU and in line with market expectations. The overnight deposit and collateralized loan rates also remained at 5.5% and 7.5%. Headline inflation stayed at 4.3% for the second consecutive month in August, above the central bank’s 2–4% target range. The domestic economy shows mixed performance, with slower retail growth, declining industrial and construction output, but a rebound in order volumes. The Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) expects growth to gradually accelerate from 2026, driven mainly by stronger exports and investment. Externally, ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks weigh on the global outlook. In the near term, despite government pressure to cut rates, the central bank emphasized a cautious and patient approach, and markets widely expect no rate cuts for the rest of the year.

2025年8月，匈牙利的工资总额同比增长8.7%，达到683302福林，增速低于上个月的9.0%。工资增长放缓的主要原因是公共部门（9.3%对10%）和私营部门（8.5%对8.7%）的增长放缓。另一方面，非营利部门的工资继续上涨（9.7%对9.1%）。不包括一次性付款和奖金，8月份的工资比去年同期高出8.1%，为654700福林。考虑到1月至8月期间，平均总工资增长了9.1%。

Hungary’s gross wage rose by 8.7% year-on-year to HUF 683,302 in August 2025, slowing from a 9.0% increase in the previous month. The moderation in wage growth was primarily driven by softer increases across both the public (9.3% vs. 10%) and private sectors (8.5% vs. 8.7%). On the other hand, wages continued to rise in the non-profit sector (9.7% vs. 9.1%). Excluding one-off payments and bonuses, August wages were 8.1% higher than in the same period a year earlier, at HUF 654,700. Considering the January–August period, average gross wages increased by 9.1%.

2025年8月，匈牙利的工业生产同比下降7.3%，与初步估计相符，前一个月下降了1%。这是自2月以来的最大跌幅，主要是由于制造业生产大幅下降（-7.4%对7月的-0.5%），特别是汽车以及计算机、电子和光学产品的生产。此外，采矿和采石业（-9.2%对-8.5%）以及电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应（-8.9%对-7.2%）的产量进一步下降。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，8月份工业活动下降2.3%，扭转了7月份1.9%的增长。

Industrial production in Hungary fell by 7.3% year-on-year in August 2025, matching preliminary estimates and following a 1% drop in the previous month. This marked the steepest decline since February, driven by a sharper decrease in production in manufacturing (-7.4% vs -0.5% in July), particularly in the manufacture of vehicles as well as computers, electronics, and optical products. Additionally, output fell further in mining and quarrying (-9.2% vs -8.5%) and in electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply (-8.9% vs -7.2%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial activity fell 2.3% in August, reversing a 1.9% gain in July.