匈牙利10年期国债 (Hungary10Y) 加自选

HALPIM制造业采购经理人指数从上个月向上修正的51.4降至2025年4月的50.2。这标志着连续第六个扩张期，尽管速度是自1月以来最慢的，但该指数落后于其长期月平均值和过去三年观察到的典型4月水平。新订单稳定在正区间，而就业指数增长速度更快。在定价方面，投入成本下降，表明价格压力有所缓和。与此同时，外部需求显示出减弱的迹象，出口指数降至50点以下，尽管进口指数仍高于50点。

The HALPIM Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in April 2025 from an upwardly revised 51.4 in the previous month. It marked the sixth consecutive period of expansion, albeit at the softest pace since January, with the index lagging behind both its long-term monthly average and the typical April levels observed over the past three years. New orders held steady in positive territory, while the employment index recorded a faster pace of growth. On the pricing front, input costs declined, pointing to a moderation in price pressures. Meanwhile, external demand showed signs of weakening, with the export index dipping below the 50-point threshold, even as the import index remained above it.

由于出口增长超过进口，匈牙利的贸易顺差从去年同期的15.95亿欧元扩大到2025年3月的17.68亿欧元。出口同比增长8.5%，达到133.86亿欧元，进口同比增长8.1%，达到116.18亿欧元。考虑到今年前三个月，该国的贸易顺差从去年同期的38.94亿欧元增至39.25亿欧元。

Hungary’s trade surplus widened to EUR 1,768 million in March 2025 from EUR 1,595 million in the corresponding month of the previous year, as exports rose more than imports. Year-on-year, exports increased by 8.5% to EUR 13,386 million, while imports grew by 8.1% to EUR 11,618 million. Considering the first three months of the year, the country’s trade surplus rose to EUR 3,925 million from EUR 3,894 million in the same period last year.

初步估计显示，匈牙利的国内生产总值在前三个月增长0.4%后，在2025年第一季度与去年同期相比停滞不前。经济表现受到服务业综合产出的积极影响，但在很大程度上被工业和建筑活动的下降所抵消。经季节性调整的季度基础上，2025年第一季度国内生产总值收缩了0.2%，扭转了前一时期0.6%的增长。

Hungary’s gross domestic product stagnated from a year earlier in the first quarter of 2025, following a 0.4% expansion in the previous three-month period, preliminary estimates showed. Economic performance was positively influenced by the combined output in the services sector, but was largely offset by declines in industrial and construction activity. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2025, reversing a 0.6% advance in the preceding period.

匈牙利国家银行在4月份连续第七次会议将基本利率维持在6.50%，这是欧盟的最高利率，符合市场预期。央行存款隔夜利率和担保贷款隔夜利率也分别保持不变，分别为5.5%和7.5%。央行指出，美国的关税和世界最大经济体的潜在报复留下了不确定的宏观经济前景，支持利率保持不变的理由。政策制定者还指出，虽然关税和福林兑欧元走弱会提升通胀风险，但全球需求下降导致的能源价格下跌可能会缓解国内企业的成本压力。最新数据显示，3月份消费者通胀率降至4.7%，核心通胀率降至5.7%。

The National Bank of Hungary maintained its basic interest rate by 6.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting in April, the highest rate of the European Union, in line with what markets expected. Overnight rates for central bank deposits and warranty loans also remained unchanged by 5.5% and 7.5%, respectively. The central bank noted that tariffs by the United States and potential retaliation from the world's largest economies leave an uncertain macroeconomic outlook, supporting the case for interest rates to remain unchanged. Policymakers also noted that while tariffs and the weaker forint against the euro lift inflationary risks, the lower energy prices due to lower global demand are likely to ease cost pressures for domestic firms. The latest data showed that consumer inflation decreased to 4.7% in March, as well as core inflation, which fell to 5.7%.