法国3个月期国债 (France3M) 加自选

巴黎CAC 40指数上涨0.3%，收于8082点，为3月下旬以来的最高水平，在新的公司级利好和更友好的全球利率背景的支持下，重量级奢侈品牌的反弹超过了国内活动的疲软，并推动了广泛的指数上涨。开云集团领涨，上涨3.8%，而路威酩轩集团和爱马仕分别上涨1.9%和0.8%，因为有弹性的现金生成和收入增长势头改善的迹象为投资者提供了转向该行业的明确理由。巴黎时装周的高调活动表明，高端品牌的需求和游客流量都集中在高端品牌上，这增强了近期的销售预期。随着美联储更快降息和每周资金流入强劲，全球头寸转向股市，CAC 40指数每周上涨2.7%，此前低于预期的美国就业数据引发了人们对美联储即将放松政策的希望。

The Paris CAC 40 added 0.3% to close at 8,082, its highest level since late March amid a rally in heavyweight luxury names backed by fresh company-level positives and a friendlier global rate backdrop outweighed softer domestic activity and drove broad index gains. Kering led the advance, gaining 3.8%, while LVMH and Hermès rose 1.9% and 0.8% respectively, as resilient cash generation and signs of improving top-line momentum gave investors a clear reason to rotate into the sector. Paris Fashion Week's high-profile shows concentrated demand and tourist flows on premium maisons, reinforcing near-term sales expectations. With global positioning shifting toward equities on faster Fed-cut bets and strong weekly inflows into funds, the CAC 40 posted a weekly gain of 2.7% after weaker-than-expected US jobs data raised hopes of an imminent Fed easing.

2025年9月，法国HCOB综合采购经理人指数降至48.1，低于8月的初步48.4和49.8，标志着私营部门连续第13个月收缩，是自4月以来的最大收缩。制造业和服务业的产出下降更快，尽管新业务的下降速度比8月慢。尽管经济低迷，但就业增长持续，两个行业都实现了就业增长。投入成本继续稳步上升，而产出价格自5月以来首次下跌。令人鼓舞的是，商业信心增强，增长预期达到三个月高点。

The HCOB France Composite PMI slipped to 48.1 in September 2025, below a preliminary 48.4 and down from 49.8 in August, signaling the 13th straight month of private sector contraction and the sharpest since April. Both manufacturing and services saw faster declines in output, though new business fell at a slower pace than in August. Despite the downturn, employment growth was sustained, with job gains recorded across both sectors. Input costs continued to rise solidly, while output prices fell for the first time since May. Encouragingly, business confidence strengthened, with growth expectations reaching a three-month high.

巴黎CAC 40指数上涨0.2%，至8070点左右，为3月下旬以来的最高点，受银行股上涨提振。英国《金融时报》报道称，欧盟可能解除对与俄罗斯寡头奥列格·德里帕斯卡有关的资产的制裁，以补偿奥地利银行Raiffeisen，这提振了市场情绪。法国巴黎银行上涨1.3%，法国兴业银行上涨1.2%，法国农业信贷银行上涨0.8%。在其他方面，Legrand在宣布收购Avtron Power Solutions以扩大其数据中心足迹后上涨0.8%，而圣戈班在同意将其巴西零售商Tumelero出售给GG10后下跌0.3%，该交易预计将于2025年底完成，等待批准。本周，CAC有望上涨2%以上，因为低于预期的美国就业数据提振了人们对美联储本月晚些时候降息的预期。

The Paris CAC 40 added 0.2% to around 8,070, its highest since late March, lifted by gains in bank shares. Sentiment was boosted after the Financial Times reported the EU may lift sanctions on assets linked to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska to compensate Austrian lender Raiffeisen. BNP Paribas rose 1.3%, Societe Generale 1.2%, and Credit Agricole 0.8%. Elsewhere, Legrand advanced 0.8% after announcing the acquisition of Avtron Power Solutions to expand its data center footprint, while Saint-Gobain slipped 0.3% after agreeing to sell its Brazilian retailer Tumelero to GG10, with the deal expected to close by end-2025 pending approval. For the week, the CAC is on track to gain over 2% as weaker-than-expected US jobs data bolstered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this month.

HCOB法国服务业采购经理人指数在2025年9月降至48.5，低于最初估计的48.9。最新数据标志着自4月以来最快的联合下降，进一步陷入收缩。活动受到客户犹豫、销售状况疲软和不确定性上升的限制，而新业务连续第13个月萎缩，尽管是自1月以来最慢的速度。外国需求也减弱，延长了新出口订单下降的顺序。与此同时，公司继续招聘，就业人数连续第二个月上升，尽管幅度不大，但积压的工作进一步减少。在价格方面，投入成本小幅上涨，而由于竞争压力迫使折扣，产出价格自5月以来首次下调。最后，在需求和新产品预期增强的支撑下，商业信心升至三个月高点，尽管在政治不确定性的情况下，以历史标准衡量，商业信心仍受到抑制。

The HCOB France Services PMI fell to 48.5 in September 2025, revised down from the initial estimate of 48.9. The latest figure marked the joint-quickest decline since April, moving deeper into contraction. Activity was constrained by client hesitancy, weak sales conditions, and rising uncertainty, while new business shrank for a 13th consecutive month, though at the slowest pace since January. Foreign demand also weakened, extending the sequence of declining new export orders. Meanwhile, firms continued hiring, with employment rising for a second month, albeit marginally, while backlogs of work were further reduced. On the price front, input costs rose modestly, while output prices were cut for the first time since May as competitive pressures forced discounts. Lastly, business confidence improved to a three-month high, supported by expectations of stronger demand and new offerings, though remained subdued by historical standards amid political uncertainty.