法国3个月期国债 (France3M) 加自选

法国10年期OAT收益率升至3.26%以上，触及5月23日以来的最高水平，投资者评估了油价上涨带来的通胀风险，并等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定。随着以色列和伊朗之间紧张局势的升级，原油价格飙升至近五个月高点，引发了人们对潜在供应中断的担忧，特别是如果霍尔木兹海峡被关闭的话。至于货币政策，人们普遍预计美联储周三将保持利率不变。然而，市场将密切关注最新的经济预测和点阵图，以寻找未来利率走势的线索。在欧元区，货币市场目前将欧洲央行的存款便利利率定价为年底前1.79%，而9月份降息的可能性已从60%降至50%。欧洲央行官员Joachim Nagel强调了保持灵活性的重要性，并指出经济前景存在“异常的不确定性”。

France’s 10-year OAT yield rose above 3.26%, having touched its highest level since May 23, as investors assessed the inflationary risks posed by rising oil prices and awaited the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week. Crude prices have surged to near five-month highs amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions—particularly if the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed. As for monetary policy, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. However, markets will closely scrutinize the updated economic projections and the dot plot for clues on the rate path ahead. In the Eurozone, money markets are now pricing the ECB’s deposit facility rate at 1.79% by year-end, while the likelihood of a September rate cut has fallen to 50%, down from 60%. ECB official Joachim Nagel stressed the importance of maintaining flexibility, citing the “exceptional uncertainty” surrounding the economic outlook.

周一，CAC 40指数上涨0.3%，收于7710点，结束了连续三个交易日的下跌，开云股价飙升有助于抵消中东地缘政治风险上升带来的压力。开云集团股价上涨超过6%，此前有报道称，即将离任的雷诺首席执行官卢卡·德·梅奥（Luca de Meo）有望成为这家豪华集团的新任首席执行官，这提振了投资者情绪。相反，雷诺股价下跌近7%，而另一份报告显示，总部位于东京的日产计划减持这家法国汽车制造商的股份。与此同时，以色列和伊朗之间日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势继续影响市场情绪，因为新的袭击事件引发了人们对更广泛地区冲突的担忧。在美国关税政策转变的不确定性持续存在之际，不断升级的紧张局势加剧了投资者的担忧。展望未来，人们的注意力将转向即将召开的七国集团峰会，各国领导人将在会上讨论贸易、地缘政治安全和全球经济韧性问题。

The CAC 40 index rose 0.3% toward 7,710 on Monday, snapping a three-session losing streak, as a surge in Kering shares helped offset pressure from rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Kering jumped over 6% after reports that Luca de Meo, the outgoing Renault CEO credited with turning around the automaker, is poised to become the luxury group’s new chief executive, boosting investor sentiment. Conversely, Renault fell nearly 7% on the news, while a separate report indicated that Tokyo-based Nissan plans to reduce its stake in the French automaker. Meanwhile, heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran continued to weigh on market mood, as fresh attacks raised concerns of a wider regional conflict. The escalating tensions added to investor concerns amid ongoing uncertainty over shifting US tariff policy. Looking ahead, attention turns to the upcoming G7 summit, where leaders will tackle trade, geopolitical security, and global economic resilience.

法国马克龙：伊朗对该地区的不稳定负有重大责任。法国总统马克龙：伊朗对该地区的不稳定负有重大责任。我们不能生活在一个伊朗拥有核武器的世界里。

France's Macron: Iran carries heavy responsibility the destabilization of the region.France's Macron: Iran carries heavy responsibility in the destabilization of the region. We cannot live in a world where Iran has nuclear weapons.

周五，CAC 40指数下跌1.1%，收于7684点，连续第三个交易日下跌，每周大幅下跌，中东紧张局势升级拖累全球市场。周五早些时候，以色列对伊朗发动了大规模空袭，袭击了军事和核目标，并在警告即将进行报复的情况下宣布进入紧急状态。伊朗国家媒体报道称，革命卫队指挥官侯赛因·萨拉米可能死亡，但未得到证实。德黑兰誓言对以色列和美国做出严厉回应，尽管华盛顿表示，这些袭击是以色列自卫的独立行动。在国内经济方面，最终估计证实，年通货膨胀率从3月和4月的0.8%降至2025年5月的0.7%，达到2021年2月以来的最低水平。在股票中，Stellantis（-3.5%）、Accor（-3.4%）和Teleperformance（-2.9%）的跌幅最大，而Engie（1.3%）和Orange（1.0%）上涨。

The CAC 40 index fell 1.1% to close at 7,684 on Friday, marking a third consecutive session of losses and a sharp weekly drop, as escalating tensions in the Middle East weighed on global markets. Early Friday, Israel launched large-scale airstrikes against Iran, hitting military and nuclear targets, and declared a state of emergency amid warnings of imminent retaliation. Iranian state media reported, without confirmation, the possible death of Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami. Tehran vowed a harsh response against Israel and the US, though Washington said the strikes were Israel's independent action in self-defense. On the domestic economic front, final estimates confirmed that the annual inflation rate fell to 0.7% in May 2025, from 0.8% in March and April, reaching the lowest level since February 2021. Among stocks, Stellantis (-3.5%), Accor (-3.4%) and Teleperformance (-2.9%) posted the steepest losses, while Engie (1.3%) and Orange (1.0%) advanced.