硅铁主力 (ZCE_SF) 加自选

中国度假归来-中国市场重新开放。在中国度假期间，这里的时区通常很沉闷，但这次不是。日本政治使日元、股市和日本国债活跃，而黄金则一直在上涨。

China returns from holidays today - Chinese markets reopen.Its often quite dreary during the timezone here when China is on holiday, but not this time. Japanese politics have kep the yen, equities, and JGBs lively while gold has just kept on rising.

世界银行将中国2025年的增长预测从早先的4.0%上调至4.8%，但警告称，由于消费者和企业信心低迷以及新出口订单疲软，2026年的增长势头可能会放缓。这家全球银行在周二发布的两年一度的《东亚及太平洋经济展望》中指出，“该地区最大的经济体中国的增长预计将下降……因为出口增长预期放缓，公共债务上升导致财政刺激可能减少，以及持续的结构性减速。”9月份的数据显示，中国的工厂产出和零售额增长是近一年来最低的，突显出经济仍远未强劲复苏。分析人士预计，北京可能会推出额外的刺激措施，以支持其约5%的年增长目标。世界银行预测，2025年东亚和太平洋地区将增长4.4%，增长0.2个百分点，同时保持2026年4.5%的增长预测。

The World Bank raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 4.8% from an earlier estimate of 4.0%, but warned that momentum is likely to slow in 2026 due to low consumer and business confidence and weak new export orders. In its biannual East Asia and Pacific economic outlook on Tuesday, the global lender noted, “Growth in China, the region’s largest economy, is projected to decline ... because of an expected slowdown in export growth and a likely reduction in the fiscal stimulus in light of rising public debt, as well as continued structural deceleration.” September data showed China’s factory output and retail sales grew the least in nearly a year, highlighting that the economy remains far from a strong recovery. Analysts expect Beijing may introduce additional stimulus to support its around 5% annual growth target. The World Bank forecast the East Asia and Pacific region to expand 4.4% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point increase, while maintaining a 4.5% growth projection for 2026.

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The offshore yuan depreciated past 7.15 per dollar on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in over a month, pressured by a strengthening greenback. The US dollar rallied amid mounting concerns over an ongoing US government shutdown, fueling investor anxiety and increasing demand for safe-haven assets. On the trade front, China appears to be gaining leverage in US–China negotiations, underscored by the continued absence of Chinese soybean purchases despite the onset of the northern hemisphere’s harvest season. Markets are now closely watching for developments ahead of the anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, scheduled for October 31 to November 1.

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The offshore yuan depreciated past 7.15 per dollar on Wednesday, hitting its lowest level in over a month, pressured by a strengthening greenback. The US dollar rallied amid mounting concerns over an ongoing US government shutdown, fueling investor anxiety and increasing demand for safe-haven assets. On the trade front, China appears to be gaining leverage in US–China negotiations, underscored by the continued absence of Chinese soybean purchases despite the onset of the northern hemisphere’s harvest season. Markets are now closely watching for developments ahead of the anticipated meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea, scheduled for October 31 to November 1.