棕榈油主力 (DCE_P) 加自选

周二，中国10年期政府债券收益率保持近期涨幅在1.65%左右，这得益于制造业活动意外反弹后市场情绪的改善。财新网最新调查显示，中国6月工厂活动意外恢复增长，从48.3升至50.4，超过了49的预期，这得益于北京在美国关税上调的情况下稳定增长的努力。该数据与周一发布的官方采购经理人指数形成鲜明对比，该指数表明连续第三个月出现收缩，但略有改善，突显出出口驱动型企业在贸易逆风下的韧性。为了增加支持，北京周五宣布与华盛顿达成一项新的贸易协议，根据该协议，中国将审查出口申请，而美国将放宽对中国实体的某些限制。展望未来，市场关注即将到来的关键政治会议，特别是即将召开的7月政治局会议，让市场关注潜在的刺激信号。

China’s 10-year government bond yield held its recent gains to around 1.65% on Tuesday, supported by improved sentiment after a surprise rebound in manufacturing activity. The latest Caixin survey showed that China’s factory activity unexpectedly returned to growth in June, rising to 50.4 from 48.3, and beating forecasts of 49, supported by Beijing’s efforts to stabilize growth amid higher US tariffs. The reading contrasted with the official PMI released Monday, which signaled a third straight month of contraction, though with modest improvement, highlighting resilience among export-driven firms despite trade headwinds. Adding support, Beijing announced a new trade deal with Washington on Friday, under which China will review export applications, while the US will ease certain restrictions on Chinese entities. Looking ahead, markets are focused on upcoming key political meetings, particularly the upcoming July Politburo meeting, keeping markets attentive for potential stimulus signals.

中国财新制造业采购经理人指数升至50.4，但乐观情绪逐渐消退。

China Caixin PMI manufacturing rises to 50.4, but optimism fades.

ForexLive亚太外汇新闻总结：中国财新制造业采购经理人指数跃升。日元走强，美元/日元跌至143.50左右，反映出市场对日本数据、日本央行短观和6月份最终制造业采购经理人指数相对上行的意外反应。

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI jumps into growth.The yen strengthened, with USD/JPY dipping to around 143.50, reflecting a market reaction to the relative upside surprise in Japanese data, the BoJ Tankan and the final manufacturing PMI for June.

周二，离岸人民币兑美元汇率保持在7.16左右，徘徊在2024年11月初以来的最高水平附近，这得益于工厂活动意外恢复增长后市场情绪的改善。一项私人调查显示，中国6月份的制造业采购经理人指数从48.3升至50.4，超过了49的预测，这得益于北京在美国关税上调的情况下稳定增长的努力。该数据与周一发布的官方采购经理人指数形成鲜明对比，该指数表明连续第三个月出现收缩，但略有改善，突显出出口驱动型企业在贸易逆风下的韧性。与此同时，由于对美联储降息和贸易不确定性的押注越来越多，美元仍面临压力，这为人民币提供了进一步的支撑。展望未来，人们对中国主要政治会议，特别是即将召开的7月政治局会议上预期的显著行动越来越期待，这将使市场关注人民币的进一步干预。

The offshore yuan held its recent gains to around 7.16 per dollar on Tuesday, hovering near its highest level since early November 2024, supported by improved sentiment after factory activity unexpectedly returned to growth. A private survey showed that China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in June from 48.3, beating forecasts of 49, supported by Beijing’s efforts to stabilize growth amid higher US tariffs. The reading contrasted with the official PMI released Monday, which signaled a third straight month of contraction, though with modest improvement, highlighting resilience among export-driven firms despite trade headwinds. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained under pressure amid growing bets on Fed rate cuts and trade uncertainty, offering further support to the yuan. Looking ahead, anticipation is building around notable actions expected at key political meetings in China, particularly the upcoming July Politburo session, keeping markets attentive to further yuan interventions.