鸡蛋主力 (DCE_JD) 加自选

在中国，上海综合指数周一上涨23点，涨幅0.68%。中航航空发动机（6.05%）、中航沈阳飞机（5.99%）和隆基绿色（2.95%）领涨。跌幅最大的是平安保险（-2.42%）、中国东方航空（-1.71%）和紫金矿业（-1.21%）。

In China, the Shangai Composite Index gained 23 points or 0.68 percent on Monday. Gains were led by Avic Aviation Engine (6.05%), Avic Shenyang Aircraft (5.99%) and LONGi Green (2.95%). Biggest losers were Ping An Insurance (-2.42%), China Eastern Airlin (-1.71%) and Zijin Mining (-1.21%).

周一，中国10年期国债收益率微升至1.65%左右，令人失望的制造业数据提振了人们对北京进一步刺激的希望。官方数据显示，6月份制造业活动连续第三个月收缩，企业正在努力应对不断深化的价格战和疲软的消费者需求，这进一步受到美国关税上调的压力。相比之下，包括服务业和建筑业在内的非制造业增长加速至三个月高点。这些数字突显了中国经济复苏的渐进和不平衡的步伐，加大了人们对北京进一步刺激的押注。在贸易方面，北京和华盛顿敲定了一项新协议，根据该协议，中国将审查受控物品的出口申请，而美国同意放宽对中国公司的一些限制。该协议提供了谨慎的乐观态度，尽管关键细节尚不清楚。市场现在等待周二财新PMI数据，以进一步了解私营部门的发展势头。

China’s 10-year government bond yield edged up to around 1.65% on Monday, as disappointing manufacturing data fueled hopes of further stimulus from Beijing. Official figures showed manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in June, with firms grappling with a deepening price war and subdued consumer demand, further pressured by elevated US tariffs. In contrast, growth in the non-manufacturing sector, including services and construction, accelerated to a three-month high. These figures underscore the gradual and uneven pace of China’s economic recovery, bolstering bets on additional stimulus from Beijing. On the trade front, Beijing and Washington finalized a new deal under which China will review export applications for controlled items, while the US agreed to ease some restrictions on Chinese firms. The agreement offered cautious optimism, though key details remain unclear. Markets now await Tuesday’s Caixin PMI data for further insight into private-sector momentum.

周一，离岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.16左右，弥补了上周的损失，因为最新的采购经理人指数数据加强了对进一步刺激措施的预期。官方数据显示，6月份中国制造业采购经理人指数从49.5微升至49.7，但连续第三个月保持收缩。非制造业采购经理人指数也小幅上升至50.5，表明服务业和建筑业增长缓慢。这些数字突显了中国经济复苏的渐进和不平衡的步伐，加大了人们对北京进一步刺激的押注。这与李强总理最近在一个重要经济论坛上的讲话相吻合，他在会上强调了在持续通货紧缩的情况下提振内需的努力。在美联储放松政策的押注下，美元走软也支撑了人民币。与此同时，与华盛顿重启的贸易谈判带来了谨慎的乐观情绪，尽管对关键细节仍存在担忧。市场现在等待周二财新PMI数据，以进一步了解私营部门的发展势头。

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 7.16 per dollar on Monday, recouping losses from the previous week, as the latest PMI data reinforced expectations of further stimulus measures. Official data showed China’s manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.7 in June from 49.5 but remained in contraction for a third straight month. The non-manufacturing PMI also rose slightly to 50.5, indicating tepid growth in services and construction. These figures underscore the gradual and uneven pace of China’s economic recovery, bolstering bets on additional stimulus from Beijing. This aligns with Premier Li Qiang’s recent address at a key economic forum, where he emphasized efforts to boost domestic demand amid persistent deflation. A weaker US dollar also supported the yuan amid Fed easing bets. Meanwhile, renewed trade talks with Washington offered cautious optimism, though concerns remain over key details. Markets now await Tuesday’s Caixin PMI data for further insight into private-sector momentum.

中国制造业采购经理人指数升至49.7，小企业滞后。

China's PMI manufacturing rises to 49.7, small firms lag.