波兰华沙WIG指数 (WIG) 加自选

正如普遍预期的那样，波兰国家银行（NBP）在5月份降息50个基点后，在2025年6月3日至4日的会议上将基准利率维持在5.25%。伦巴第和存款利率也分别保持不变，分别为5.75%和4.75%。宽松周期的暂停反映了在持续的高通胀、有弹性的经济增长和全球贸易政策的不确定性中采取的谨慎立场。5月份的年通胀率从4月份的4.3%降至4.1%，为2024年6月以来的最低水平，但仍远高于央行2.5%的目标。与此同时，第一季度经济同比增长3.2%，略低于2024年第四季度3.4%的增长率，这是自2022年第三季度以来的最快增长率。劳动力市场状况仍然紧张，失业率低，参与率高，尽管企业部门的就业人数比去年同期有所下降。国家统计局强调，未来的政策决定将取决于即将公布的通胀和经济活动数据。

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) held its benchmark interest rate at 5.25% during its June 3–4, 2025 meeting, as widely expected, following a 50 basis point cut in May. The Lombard and deposit rates were also kept unchanged at 5.75% and 4.75%, respectively. The pause in the easing cycle reflects a cautious stance amid persistently high inflation, resilient economic growth, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policy. Annual inflation eased to 4.1% in May from 4.3% in April—the lowest since June 2024—but remained well above the central bank’s 2.5% target. Meanwhile, the economy expanded by 3.2% year-on-year in Q1, slightly slower than the 3.4% growth in Q4 2024, which was the fastest since Q3 2022. Labor market conditions also remain tight, with low unemployment and high participation, although enterprise sector employment declined from a year earlier. The NBP emphasized that future policy decisions will depend on incoming inflation and activity data.

波兰经济在2025年第一季度同比增长3.2%，与初步估计相符，并从2024年第四季度的3.4%的增长中有所缓解。GDP增长放缓是由于家庭消费增长放缓（2.5%对2024年第四季度的3.5%）和净贸易的负面贡献。然而，固定资本形成总额的强劲反弹（6.3%对-6.9%）部分抵消了经济放缓。经季节性调整的季度数据显示，2025年第一季度经济增长0.7%，与初步估计相符，前三个月增长1.4%。

The Polish economy advanced by 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, matching preliminary estimates and easing from a 3.4% gain in Q4 2024. The GDP growth slowdown was due to a slower increase in household consumption (2.5% vs 3.5% in Q4 2024) and a negative contribution from net trade. However, the slowdown was partially offset by a strong rebound in gross fixed capital formation (6.3% vs -6.9%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy grew by 0.7% in Q1 2025, matching preliminary estimates and following a 1.4% gain in the previous three-month period.

标准普尔全球波兰制造业采购经理人指数从4月份的50.2降至2025年5月的47.1，结束了连续三个月的扩张，标志着自2024年6月以来最大的收缩。经济下滑的主要原因是生产活动放缓导致新订单减少。这标志着四个月来首次减产，促使企业重新审视产能要求。这些调整相继导致就业人数连续下降，过去三个月就业人数稳步下降。随后，5月份的采购活动和库存也有所下降。而供应商的交货时间则略有延长。展望未来，商业信心减弱，12个月的前景在2025年达到最低水平。

The S&P Global Poland Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.1 in May 2025 from 50.2 in April, ending a three-month sequence of expansion, and marking the steepest contraction since June 2024. The downturn was mainly attributed to a decline in new orders resulting to a slowdown in production activity. This marked the first reduction in output in four months prompting firms to review capacity requirements. The adjustments successively led the consecutive declines in employment, which has fallen steadily over the past three months. Subsequently, purchasing activities and stock on goods have also decreased for the month of May. While, supplier’s delivery times lengthened softly. Looking ahead, business confidence weakened, with the 12-month outlook reaching its lowest in 2025.

根据初步估计，波兰的年通货膨胀率从4月份的4.3%降至2025年5月的4.1%，略低于市场预期的4.3%。这标志着自2024年6月以来的最低水平，因为电力、天然气和其他燃料（+13.1%）以及食品和非酒精饮料（+5.5%）的价格上涨被燃料成本的大幅下降（-11.4%）部分抵消。按月度计算，5月份消费者价格下跌0.2%，这是自2023年9月以来的首次月度下跌，此前4月份上涨了0.4%。

Poland’s annual inflation rate eased to 4.1% in May 2025 from 4.3% in April and slightly below market expectations of 4.3%, according to preliminary estimates. This marked the lowest level since June 2024, as rising prices for electricity, gas and other fuels (+13.1%) and food and non-alcoholic beverages (+5.5%) were partially offset by a sharp decline in fuel costs (-11.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.2% in May, marking the first monthly decline since September 2023, following a 0.4% increase in April.