波兰华沙WIG指数 (WIG) 加自选

波兰在2025年4月的经常账户赤字为3.74亿欧元，而去年同期为9.22亿欧元。货物贸易平衡从7.5亿欧元的顺差恶化为9.4亿欧元的逆差。出口下降2.4%，至280亿欧元，而进口增长3.5%，至290亿欧元。出口下降反映了欧洲汽车行业的疲软和欧盟市场竞争的加剧，而进口的增加表明经济正在逐步复苏。与此同时，在出口增长5.1%和进口增长8.6%的推动下，服务贸易顺差几乎没有变化，为35亿欧元。主要收入赤字从32亿欧元缩小至29亿欧元，主要原因是外国投资者的证券投资回报率较低。二级收入账户盈余1.1亿欧元，而去年同期为1.74亿欧元。

Poland posted a current account deficit of EUR 374 million in April 2025, compared to a EUR 922 million surplus a year earlier. The goods trade balance deteriorated to a EUR 0.94 billion deficit from a surplus of EUR 0.75 billion. Exports declined 2.4% to EUR 28 billion, while imports rose 3.5% to EUR 29 billion. The export drop reflects weakness in the European automotive sector and increased competition in EU markets, while rising imports suggest a gradual economic recovery. Meanwhile, the services surplus was little changed at EUR 3.5 billion, driven by a 5.1% rise in exports and an 8.6% growth in imports. The primary income deficit narrowed to EUR 2.9 billion from EUR 3.2 billion, mainly due to lower portfolio investment returns for foreign investors. The secondary income account posted a EUR 0.011 billion surplus compared to a EUR 0.174 billion gap a year earlier.

波兰在2025年4月公布了9.41亿欧元的贸易逆差，与去年同期7.45亿欧元的顺差大幅逆转，标志着该国连续第12个月出现逆差。进口额增长3.5%，达到290.1亿欧元，反映了经济的逐步复苏和对消费品的强劲需求，特别是半耐用和非耐用产品以及农产品。相比之下，出口下降2.4%，至280.7亿欧元，受欧洲汽车行业状况恶化和欧盟市场竞争加剧的拖累。投资品、消费品和设备的国外销售额下降，严重影响了整体出口表现。

Poland posted a trade deficit of €941 million in April 2025, a sharp reversal from the €745 million surplus recorded in the same month last year, marking the country’s 12th consecutive monthly deficit. Imports rose by 3.5% to €29.01 billion, reflecting a gradual economic recovery and robust demand for consumer goods, particularly semi-durable and non-durable items, as well as agricultural products. In contrast, exports declined by 2.4% to €28.07 billion, weighed down by the deteriorating conditions in the European automotive sector and intensifying competition within EU markets. The drop in foreign sales of investment goods, consumer products, and equipment significantly impacted overall export performance.

波兰的年通货膨胀率从最初估计的4.1%略微下调至2025年5月的4%，而前一个月为4.3%。这是自2024年6月以来的最低水平，其中住房和公用事业（10.6%对10.8%，4月份）、健康（4.9%对5.3%）、通信（2.8%对3.5%）、娱乐和文化（3.4%对3.6%）、餐馆和酒店（5.9%对6.1%）以及杂项商品和服务（2%对2.2%）的价格涨幅放缓。与此同时，运输成本进一步下降（-7.2%对-5.6%）。按月计算，5月份消费者价格下跌0.2%，证实了初步估计，标志着继4月份上涨0.4%之后，自2023年9月以来首次出现月度下跌。

Poland’s annual inflation rate was revised slightly down to 4% in May 2025 from an initial estimate of 4.1%, compared to 4.3% in the previous month. This marked the lowest level since June 2024, amid slower price increases for housing and utilities (10.6% vs 10.8% in April), health (4.9% vs 5.3%), communication (2.8% vs 3.5%), recreation and culture (3.4% vs 3.6%), restaurants and hotels (5.9% vs 6.1%), and miscellaneous goods and services (2% vs 2.2%). At the same time, transport costs dropped further (-7.2% vs -5.6%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.2% in May, confirming preliminary estimates and marking the first monthly decline since September 2023, following a 0.4% rise in April.

正如普遍预期的那样，波兰国家银行（NBP）在5月份降息50个基点后，在2025年6月3日至4日的会议上将基准利率维持在5.25%。伦巴第和存款利率也分别保持不变，分别为5.75%和4.75%。宽松周期的暂停反映了在持续的高通胀、有弹性的经济增长和全球贸易政策的不确定性中采取的谨慎立场。5月份的年通胀率从4月份的4.3%降至4.1%，为2024年6月以来的最低水平，但仍远高于央行2.5%的目标。与此同时，第一季度经济同比增长3.2%，略低于2024年第四季度3.4%的增长率，这是自2022年第三季度以来的最快增长率。劳动力市场状况仍然紧张，失业率低，参与率高，尽管企业部门的就业人数比去年同期有所下降。国家统计局强调，未来的政策决定将取决于即将公布的通胀和经济活动数据。

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) held its benchmark interest rate at 5.25% during its June 3–4, 2025 meeting, as widely expected, following a 50 basis point cut in May. The Lombard and deposit rates were also kept unchanged at 5.75% and 4.75%, respectively. The pause in the easing cycle reflects a cautious stance amid persistently high inflation, resilient economic growth, and uncertainty surrounding global trade policy. Annual inflation eased to 4.1% in May from 4.3% in April—the lowest since June 2024—but remained well above the central bank’s 2.5% target. Meanwhile, the economy expanded by 3.2% year-on-year in Q1, slightly slower than the 3.4% growth in Q4 2024, which was the fastest since Q3 2022. Labor market conditions also remain tight, with low unemployment and high participation, although enterprise sector employment declined from a year earlier. The NBP emphasized that future policy decisions will depend on incoming inflation and activity data.