保加利亚SOFX指数 (SOFIX) 加自选

保加利亚的经常账户赤字从去年同期的3.042亿欧元缩小到2025年5月的1.319亿欧元。这主要是由于次级收入盈余增加，包括汇款和其他经常性转账，从2024年5月的9410万欧元增至9740万欧元。与此同时，服务贸易顺差从5.522亿欧元增至6.244亿欧元，而货物贸易逆差从4.609亿欧元降至4.347亿欧元。此外，初级收入赤字从5.688亿欧元缩小到4.19亿欧元。

Bulgaria’s current account deficit narrowed to €131.9 million in May 2025 from €304.2 million in the corresponding month of the previous year. This was primarily attributed to a higher secondary income surplus—which includes remittances and other current transfers—recorded at €97.4 million from €94.1 million in May 2024. At the same time, the services surplus increased to €624.4 million from €552.2 million, while the goods trade deficit decreased to €434.7 million from €460.9 million. In addition, the primary income deficit narrowed to €419 million from €568.8 million.

保加利亚的年通货膨胀率从上个月的3.7%上升到2025年6月的4.4%。这是自2023年12月以来的最高读数，主要是由于食品和非酒精饮料（7.5%对5月的6.9%）、酒精饮料和烟草（6.9%对6.1%）、通信（1.6%对0.2%）以及娱乐和文化（9.9%对7.2%）的成本上涨。此外，健康（-4.5%对-4.7%）和交通（-2.3%对-3.9%）的价格下降速度较慢。与此同时，餐馆和酒店（9.9%对10.8%）以及杂项商品和服务（3.5%对4.1%）的通货膨胀有所缓和。按月计算，6月份消费者价格指数在前一时期持平后上涨了0.4%。

Bulgaria’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.4% in June 2025 from 3.7% in the previous month. This marked the highest reading since December 2023, mainly driven by higher costs of food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.5% vs 6.9% in May), alcoholic beverages and tobacco (6.9% vs 6.1%), communication (1.6% vs 0.2%), and recreation and culture (9.9% vs 7.2%). Additionally, prices declined at a softer pace for health (-4.5% vs -4.7%) and transport (-2.3% vs -3.9%). Meanwhile, inflation softened for restaurants and hotels (9.9% vs 10.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (3.5% vs 4.1%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4% in June, after a flat reading in the preceding period.

信用评级机构惠誉评级和标准普尔全球评级将保加利亚的长期外币信用评级从“BBB”上调至“BBB+”，并将前景从“积极”改为“稳定”。这标志着在欧盟于2026年1月1日批准保加利亚加入欧元区后，中上投资级类别中的最高水平。标准普尔列举了欧洲央行政策稳定、更好的资本市场准入和更低的货币风险等好处，预计2025年GDP增长2.4%，到2028年平均增长2.8%，其中私人消费占主导地位。惠誉还积极看待欧元的采用，强调了更强有力的货币政策、政府债务的储备货币地位以及欧洲央行的流动性准入。它预测2025年经济增长率为2.8%，与2024年持平，这得益于政治稳定的改善。穆迪对保加利亚的信用评级最后设定为Baa1，前景稳定。DBRS对保加利亚的信用评级最后报告为BBB（高），前景稳定。

Credit rating agencies Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings have upgraded Bulgaria’s long-term foreign currency credit rating to “BBB+” from "BBB" and changed the outlook to "stable" from "positive". This marks the highest level within the upper-medium investment-grade category, following the EU’s approval of Bulgaria’s eurozone entry on January 1, 2026.S&P cited benefits such as ECB policy stability, better capital market access, and lower currency risk, projecting GDP growth of 2.4% in 2025 and 2.8% on average through 2028, led by private consumption. Fitch also views euro adoption positively, highlighting stronger monetary policy, reserve currency status for government debt, and ECB liquidity access. It forecasts 2.8% growth in 2025, unchanged from 2024, supported by improved political stability. Moody's credit rating for Bulgaria was last set at Baa1 with stable outlook. DBRS' credit rating for Bulgaria was last reported at BBB (high) with stable outlook.

2025年5月，保加利亚工业生产同比下降6.6%，较上月向下修正的9.8%有所缓解。制造业产出放缓（-2%对4月份的-7.3%），而采矿和采石业的产量大幅回升（8.4%对-3.7%）。与此同时，电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应大幅萎缩（-26.6%对-12%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，工业活动增长0.5%，较前一时期向上修正的1.7%有所放缓。

Industrial production in Bulgaria fell by 6.6% year-on-year in May 2025, easing from a downwardly revised 9.8% drop in the previous month. Output slipped at a softer pace for manufacturing (-2% vs -7.3% in April), while production recovered significantly for mining and quarrying (8.4% vs -3.7%). Meanwhile, electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply contracted sharply (-26.6% vs -12%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial activity grew by 0.5%, slowing from an upwardly revised 1.7% gain in the preceding period.