瑞士市场指数 (SMI) 加自选

由于持续的贸易不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势加剧，对美元造成压力，并提振了对避险资产的需求，瑞士法郎升值近1%，至每美元0.81左右，为2021年4月以来的最高水平。特朗普总统宣布计划在两周内向主要贸易伙伴发出信函，在与中国脆弱的贸易框架后提议单方面征收关税。在地区威胁日益加剧的情况下，他下令准备从中东撤离美国人后，风险情绪进一步恶化。在国内，价格压力减弱和经济前景疲软的结合引发了人们的猜测，即瑞士国家银行可能会重新推出超宽松的货币措施，包括在未来几个月恢复负利率。2025年5月，消费者价格同比下降0.1%，这是自2021年3月以来的首次通缩。市场普遍预计瑞士央行将在6月19日的会议上将利率从0.25%降至0%。

The Swiss franc appreciated nearly 1% to trade around 0.81 per USD, its highest level since April 2021, as ongoing trade uncertainties and heightened geopolitical tensions pressured the dollar and lifted demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump announced plans to send letters to key trading partners within two weeks, proposing unilateral tariffs after a fragile trade framework with China. Risk sentiment deteriorated further after he ordered preparations to evacuate Americans from the Middle East amid growing regional threats. Domestically, the combination of subdued price pressures and a weak economic outlook has raised speculation that the Swiss National Bank could reintroduce ultra-loose monetary measures, including a return to negative interest rates in the coming months. Consumer prices fell by 0.1% in May 2025 compared to a year earlier, marking the first deflationary print since March 2021. Markets widely expect the SNB to cut rates from 0.25% to 0% at its June 19 meeting.

瑞士消费者信心指数从去年同期的-38升至2025年5月的-37，略高于市场预期的-38。与一年前相比，大多数组成部分都有所改善：对过去财务状况的评估从-58上升到-45，预期财务状况从-36上升到-30，重大采购时间指数从-37.6上升到-28。与此同时，对预期经济发展的看法进一步恶化，从2024年5月的-21.1降至-42.9。

Switzerland’s consumer confidence index rose to -37 in May 2025 from -38 in the same month last year, slightly beating market expectations of -38. Most components showed improvement compared to a year ago: the assessment of the past financial situation rose to -45 from -58, the expected financial situation improved to -30 from -36, and the index for the timing of major purchases increased to -28 from -37.6. Meanwhile, views on expected economic development deteriorated further, falling to -42.9 from -21.1 in May 2024.

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率接近0.40%，为5月20日以来的最高水平，因为围绕美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪降低了对传统安全的瑞士资产的需求。与此同时，投资者关注的焦点仍然是包括美联储和欧洲央行在内的主要央行的政策前景。在国内方面，最新的瑞士CPI和GDP数据提高了瑞士国家银行（SNB）在6月19日下次会议上降息25个基点的可能性。瑞士5月份CPI同比下降0.1%，跌破瑞士央行0-2%的目标区间，这是自2021年3月以来的首次通缩读数。与此同时，2025年第一季度GDP环比增长0.5%，高于第四季度向下修正的0.3%，但低于初步估计的0.7%。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond was near 0.40%, its highest level since May 20, as optimism surrounding US-China trade talks reduced demand for the traditionally safe Swiss assets. Meanwhile, investor focus also remained on the policy outlook from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB. On the domestic front, the latest Swiss CPI and GDP data raised the odds of Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivering a 25 basis point rate cut in next meeting on June 19. The Swiss CPI fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, slipping below the SNB's 0-2% target range and marking the first deflationary reading since March 2021. Meanwhile, the GDP grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, improving from a downwardly revised 0.3% in Q4 but falling short of the preliminary 0.7% estimate.

瑞士：瑞士重返UST监测名单。ING外汇分析师Chris Turner指出，在外汇业务方面，瑞士和爱尔兰被列入美国财政部的监控名单。

CHF: Switzerland returns to UST's Monitoring List – ING.Switzerland and Ireland were added to the US Treasury's monitoring list when it comes to FX practices, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.