瑞士市场指数 (SMI) 加自选

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率约为0.81，徘徊在2011年以来的最高水平附近，中东紧张局势不断升级，导致人们纷纷涌向安全地带。以色列对伊朗发动了一波袭击，目标是伊朗的核基础设施和军事设施，造成两名高级指挥官死亡。以色列政府警告称将采取进一步行动，而伊朗则誓言进行报复。除了地缘政治风险外，其他几个因素也促成了法郎的强势，今年迄今为止，法郎已上涨约10%。这些因素包括围绕特朗普总统贸易政策的不确定性，以及由较冷的通胀数据和对美国经济和财政前景日益增长的担忧引发的广泛美元疲软。在国内，瑞士国家银行（SNB）可能很快会重新引入负利率。市场普遍预计，瑞士央行下周将下调关键利率，一些分析师甚至暗示将重返负值区间。

The Swiss franc traded around 0.81 per USD, hovering near its highest levels since 2011, amid a broad flight to safety driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Israel has launched a wave of strikes against Iran, targeting its nuclear infrastructure and military installations, killing two senior commanders. The Israeli government has warned of further action, while Iran has vowed retaliation. In addition to geopolitical risk, several other factors have contributed to the franc’s strength which is up about 10% so far this year. These include uncertainty surrounding President Trump's trade policies and broad-based dollar weakness, triggered by cooler inflation data and growing concerns over the US economic and fiscal outlook. Domestically, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may soon reintroduce negative interest rates. Markets widely anticipate that the SNB will cut its key rate next week with some analysts even suggesting a move back into negative territory.

由于持续的贸易不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势加剧，对美元造成压力，并提振了对避险资产的需求，瑞士法郎升值近1%，至每美元0.81左右，为2021年4月以来的最高水平。特朗普总统宣布计划在两周内向主要贸易伙伴发出信函，在与中国脆弱的贸易框架后提议单方面征收关税。在地区威胁日益加剧的情况下，他下令准备从中东撤离美国人后，风险情绪进一步恶化。在国内，价格压力减弱和经济前景疲软的结合引发了人们的猜测，即瑞士国家银行可能会重新推出超宽松的货币措施，包括在未来几个月恢复负利率。2025年5月，消费者价格同比下降0.1%，这是自2021年3月以来的首次通缩。市场普遍预计瑞士央行将在6月19日的会议上将利率从0.25%降至0%。

The Swiss franc appreciated nearly 1% to trade around 0.81 per USD, its highest level since April 2021, as ongoing trade uncertainties and heightened geopolitical tensions pressured the dollar and lifted demand for safe-haven assets. President Trump announced plans to send letters to key trading partners within two weeks, proposing unilateral tariffs after a fragile trade framework with China. Risk sentiment deteriorated further after he ordered preparations to evacuate Americans from the Middle East amid growing regional threats. Domestically, the combination of subdued price pressures and a weak economic outlook has raised speculation that the Swiss National Bank could reintroduce ultra-loose monetary measures, including a return to negative interest rates in the coming months. Consumer prices fell by 0.1% in May 2025 compared to a year earlier, marking the first deflationary print since March 2021. Markets widely expect the SNB to cut rates from 0.25% to 0% at its June 19 meeting.

瑞士消费者信心指数从去年同期的-38升至2025年5月的-37，略高于市场预期的-38。与一年前相比，大多数组成部分都有所改善：对过去财务状况的评估从-58上升到-45，预期财务状况从-36上升到-30，重大采购时间指数从-37.6上升到-28。与此同时，对预期经济发展的看法进一步恶化，从2024年5月的-21.1降至-42.9。

Switzerland’s consumer confidence index rose to -37 in May 2025 from -38 in the same month last year, slightly beating market expectations of -38. Most components showed improvement compared to a year ago: the assessment of the past financial situation rose to -45 from -58, the expected financial situation improved to -30 from -36, and the index for the timing of major purchases increased to -28 from -37.6. Meanwhile, views on expected economic development deteriorated further, falling to -42.9 from -21.1 in May 2024.

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率接近0.40%，为5月20日以来的最高水平，因为围绕美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪降低了对传统安全的瑞士资产的需求。与此同时，投资者关注的焦点仍然是包括美联储和欧洲央行在内的主要央行的政策前景。在国内方面，最新的瑞士CPI和GDP数据提高了瑞士国家银行（SNB）在6月19日下次会议上降息25个基点的可能性。瑞士5月份CPI同比下降0.1%，跌破瑞士央行0-2%的目标区间，这是自2021年3月以来的首次通缩读数。与此同时，2025年第一季度GDP环比增长0.5%，高于第四季度向下修正的0.3%，但低于初步估计的0.7%。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond was near 0.40%, its highest level since May 20, as optimism surrounding US-China trade talks reduced demand for the traditionally safe Swiss assets. Meanwhile, investor focus also remained on the policy outlook from major central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the ECB. On the domestic front, the latest Swiss CPI and GDP data raised the odds of Swiss National Bank (SNB) delivering a 25 basis point rate cut in next meeting on June 19. The Swiss CPI fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, slipping below the SNB's 0-2% target range and marking the first deflationary reading since March 2021. Meanwhile, the GDP grew by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, improving from a downwardly revised 0.3% in Q4 but falling short of the preliminary 0.7% estimate.