瑞士市场指数 (SMI) 加自选

2025年10月，瑞士投资者情绪指数环比上涨38.7点，至-7.7。据瑞银称，这是该指标历史上最大的增长之一，仅次于大金融危机和新冠疫情期间的激增。尽管经济有所复苏，但美国8月份对瑞士出口征收39%的关税仍抑制了市场情绪，因为美国约占瑞士出口总额的17%，使其成为该国最大的出口市场。与此同时，当前状况指数保持中性，为0，低于上月的3.6，反映出对当前经济形势的评估疲软。

The Swiss investors’ sentiment index rose by 38.7 points month-on-month to -7.7 in October 2025. According to UBS, this is one of the largest increases in the history of the indicator, next to surges observed in the aftermath of the great financial crisis and during the COVID pandemic. Despite the recovery, sentiment remains dampened by the US imposing 39% tariffs on Swiss exports in August, as the US takes about 17% of Switzerland’s total exports, making it the country’s largest export market. Meanwhile, the current conditions index remained neutral at 0, down from 3.6 in the previous month, reflecting subdued assessments of the present economic situation.

瑞士10月瑞银投资者情绪-7.7，此前为-46.4。此前-46.4这是投资者信心的大幅上升，瑞银指出：“这标志着该指标有史以来最大的增长之一，仅次于大金融危机后和新冠肺炎疫情期间观察到的激增。尽管10月份有所复苏，但该指标仍低于8月份宣布对瑞士出口美国产品征收39%关税后观察到的水平。”。

Switzerland October UBS investor sentiment -7.7 vs -46.4 prior.Prior -46.4 That's a sharp jump in investor confidence with UBS noting that: "This marks one of the largest increases in the history of the indicator, second only to surges observed in the aftermath of the great financial crisis and during the Covid pandemic. Despite the recovery in October, the indicator remains below the level observed below the August announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss exports to the US.

10年期瑞士政府债券的收益率约为0.14%，徘徊在2022年1月以来的最低水平附近，因为对瑞士国家银行在可预见的未来进一步放宽政策的预期降低。在9月25日举行的上一次货币政策会议的纪要中，央行淡化了通缩压力，并排除了进入负利率的可能性。瑞士央行得出结论，其货币政策目前是扩张性的，过去宽松政策的全部影响尚未实现。在通胀疲软和经济前景略微疲软的背景下，主要反映了美国的高关税，预计该政策将提振通胀并支持未来几个季度的增长。瑞士国家银行自2024年3月以来已六次降息，9月25日将政策利率维持在0%不变。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond was around 0.14%, hovering near its lowest since January 2022, amid reduced expectations of further policy easing in the foreseeable future by the Swiss National Bank. In the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting held on September 25, the central bank downplayed deflationary pressures and ruled out moving into negative rates. The SNB concluded that its monetary policy is currently expansionary, with the full effects of past easing yet to materialize. Against a backdrop of weak inflation and a slightly softer economic outlook, primarily reflecting high US tariffs, the policy is expected to boost inflation and support growth in the coming quarters. The Swiss National Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 0% on September 25, following six cuts since March 2024.

瑞士法郎兑美元汇率一直在0.8左右，徘徊在2011年以来的最高水平附近，因为地缘政治和贸易紧张局势继续推动避险需求，而投资者正在评估货币政策前景。在国内，9月25日瑞士央行首次会议的纪要表明，政策制定者认为，在价格增长疲软和关税相关不确定性的情况下，当前的政策立场是对经济的支持。央行将基准利率保持在0%，并排除了进一步宽松的可能性，指出通货膨胀不太可能持续为负。瑞士央行还重申，如有必要，它随时准备干预外汇市场。

The Swiss franc has been trading around 0.8 per USD, hovering near its highest levels since 2011, as geopolitical and trade tensions continue to fuel safe-haven demand while investors assess the monetary policy outlook. Domestically, the minutes from the September 25 SNB meeting—the first-ever—indicated that policymakers view the current policy stance as supportive of the economy amid weak price growth and tariff-related uncertainties. The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 0% and ruled out further easing, noting that inflation is not likely to remain persistently negative. The SNB also reaffirmed its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market if needed.