乌克兰国家银行在2025年1月23日的会议上将其关键政策利率上调100个基点至14.5%，使借贷成本达到2024年初以来的最高水平。这是连续第二次加息，旨在稳定外汇市场，管理通胀预期，并将通胀率降至5%的目标。自2024年5月以来一直在上升的通货膨胀率在12月达到12%，预计将在2025年第二季度达到峰值，然后放缓。预计到2025年底，通货膨胀率将降至8.4%，2026年将恢复到5%的目标。政策制定者还承认，与俄罗斯的持续战争阻碍了乌克兰的复苏，预计2024年GDP增长将从2023年的5.3%放缓至3.4%。2025年GDP预测从4.6%下调至3.6%。央行表示，如果通胀压力持续存在，它可能会继续收紧政策。
The National Bank of Ukraine raised its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 14.5% during its meeting on January 23, 2025, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since early 2024. This second consecutive rate hike aims to stabilize the foreign exchange market, manage inflation expectations, and reduce inflation toward the 5% target. Inflation, which has been rising since May 2024, reached 12% in December, and is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2025 before slowing. Inflation is forecast to drop to 8.4% by the end of 2025, with a return to the 5% target in 2026. Policymakers also acknowledged that the ongoing war with Russia is hindering Ukraine’s recovery, with GDP growth projected to slow to 3.4% in 2024, down from 5.3% in 2023. The 2025 GDP forecast was revised down to 3.6% from 4.6%. The central bank indicated it may continue tightening policy if inflationary pressures persist.
