乌克兰PFTS指数 (PFTS) 加自选

乌克兰国家银行在2025年1月23日的会议上将其关键政策利率上调100个基点至14.5%，使借贷成本达到2024年初以来的最高水平。这是连续第二次加息，旨在稳定外汇市场，管理通胀预期，并将通胀率降至5%的目标。自2024年5月以来一直在上升的通货膨胀率在12月达到12%，预计将在2025年第二季度达到峰值，然后放缓。预计到2025年底，通货膨胀率将降至8.4%，2026年将恢复到5%的目标。政策制定者还承认，与俄罗斯的持续战争阻碍了乌克兰的复苏，预计2024年GDP增长将从2023年的5.3%放缓至3.4%。2025年GDP预测从4.6%下调至3.6%。央行表示，如果通胀压力持续存在，它可能会继续收紧政策。

The National Bank of Ukraine raised its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 14.5% during its meeting on January 23, 2025, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since early 2024. This second consecutive rate hike aims to stabilize the foreign exchange market, manage inflation expectations, and reduce inflation toward the 5% target. Inflation, which has been rising since May 2024, reached 12% in December, and is expected to peak in the second quarter of 2025 before slowing. Inflation is forecast to drop to 8.4% by the end of 2025, with a return to the 5% target in 2026. Policymakers also acknowledged that the ongoing war with Russia is hindering Ukraine’s recovery, with GDP growth projected to slow to 3.4% in 2024, down from 5.3% in 2023. The 2025 GDP forecast was revised down to 3.6% from 4.6%. The central bank indicated it may continue tightening policy if inflationary pressures persist.

乌克兰国家银行在2024年12月的会议上将其关键政策利率上调50个基点至13.5%，此前该行已连续三次将利率保持在13%不变，这是自俄罗斯入侵后加息15个百分点以来的首次加息。央行指出，加息旨在保持其外汇市场控制的可持续性，保持通胀预期的稳定，并在有证据表明价格加速增长后，帮助乌克兰经济抑制通胀。11月，通货膨胀率升至11.2%，为一年多来的最高水平，消费者篮子的核心部分急剧增加。央行预计未来几个月通货膨胀率将继续上升，但在明年年底该指标恢复到5%之前，收紧货币政策将有助于抑制通货膨胀。

The National Bank of Ukraine lifted its key policy rate by 50bps to 13.5% in its December 2024 meeting after keeping the rate unchanged at 13% for three consecutive meetings, marking its first rate hike since the 15 percentage point increase following the Russian invasion. The central bank noted that the rate hike intends to preserve the sustainability of its foreign exchange market controls, keep inflation expectations grounded, and aid disinflation in the Ukrainian economy following evidence of accelerating price growth. The inflation rate rose to 11.2% in November, the highest in over one year, amid a sharp increase in core sections of the consumer basket. The central bank expects inflation to continue rising in coming months, but tighter monetary policy is due to aid the disinflation process before the gauge returns to the 5% by the end of next year.

乌克兰的年通货膨胀率从上个月的9.7%上升到2024年11月的11.2%，标志着自2023年7月以来最快的价格增长速度，在2022年初的基数效应推动通货膨胀率在3月份降至3.2%后，通货膨胀率继续飙升。住房和公用事业（18.7%）、食品和非酒精饮料（14.3%）、医疗保健（12.6%）以及餐馆和酒店（12.1%）的通货膨胀率上升。与上月相比，乌克兰消费者价格上涨1.9%。

The annual inflation rate in Ukraine rose to 11.2% in November of 2024 from 9.7% in the previous month, marking the fastest pace of price growth since July of 2023, extending the surge in inflation after base effects from the start of 2022 drove the rate to drop to 3.2% in March. Inflation was elevated for housing and utilities (18.7%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (14.3%), healthcare (12.6%), and restaurants and hotels (12.1%). From the previous month, Ukrainian consumer prices rose by 1.9%.

2024年10月，乌克兰国家银行（NBU）将其关键政策利率维持在13%，在持续的通货膨胀和俄罗斯持续战争的经济压力下连续第三次保持稳定。9月份通货膨胀率同比攀升至8.6%，10月份继续上升，原因是收成不佳、生产成本上升和格里夫纳贬值导致食品价格上涨。国家统计局预计，在货币政策、全球价格压力减弱和能源改善的支持下，通货膨胀率将在2024年底达到9.7%的峰值，并从2025年春季开始下降。尽管面临劳动力短缺和能源中断等挑战，但预计2024年国内生产总值将增长4%，2025-2026年将增长4.3%至4.6%，这得益于国际货币基金组织、世界银行的国际融资以及俄罗斯冻结资产担保的潜在贷款。

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) maintained its key policy rate at 13% in October 2024, holding steady for a third consecutive meeting amid persistent inflation and economic strain from Russia's ongoing war. Inflation climbed to 8.6% year-on-year in September and continued to rise in October, driven by higher food prices from poor harvests, rising production costs, and the hryvnia’s depreciation. The NBU anticipates inflation peaking at 9.7% by the end of 2024, with a decline starting in spring 2025, supported by monetary policy, softer global price pressures, and energy improvements. Despite challenges, including labor shortages and energy disruptions, GDP growth is forecast at 4% for 2024, with 4.3% to 4.6% growth in 2025–2026, supported by international financing from the IMF, World Bank, and potential loans secured by frozen Russian assets.