乌克兰PFTS指数 (PFTS) 加自选

2025年5月，乌克兰的年度消费者通胀率上升至15.9%，为2023年4月以来的最高水平，主要原因是食品价格同比上涨22.1%。这一增长速度超过了早些时候的预测，主要是由于去年收成减少和春季寒冷天气推迟了新鲜农产品的生产。仅水果价格就环比上涨17.6%。5月份总体消费价格较4月份上涨1.3%。尽管目前出现飙升，但央行仍将关键利率稳定在15.5%，并表示通胀可能在5月份达到峰值。随着新收成改善供应，预计未来几个月价格压力将有所缓解。央行预测，通货膨胀率在2024年达到12%后，到年底将降至8.7%。

Ukraine’s annual consumer inflation rose to 15.9% in May 2025, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by a 22.1% year-on-year jump in food prices. The rise has outpaced earlier forecasts, mainly due to a smaller harvest last year and cold spring weather that delayed fresh produce. Fruit prices alone rose 17.6% month-on-month. Overall consumer prices increased 1.3% in May from April. Despite the current spike, the central bank held its key interest rate steady at 15.5%, stating that inflation likely peaked in May. It expects price pressures to ease in the coming months as the new harvest improves supply. The central bank forecasts inflation to fall to 8.7% by year-end, after reaching 12% in 2024.

乌克兰国家银行在2025年6月的会议上将其关键政策利率稳定在15.5%，标志着连续第二次暂停，旨在支持外汇市场稳定，锚定预期，并在政策范围内引导通胀逐步回到5%的目标。政策制定者表示，这一立场将支持外汇市场的可持续性，并控制通胀预期，这将有助于使通胀回到稳定下降的轨道。乌克兰4月份的年通货膨胀率从3月份的14.6%加快至15.1%，将其上升趋势延长至11个月，达到2023年5月以来的最高点。央行估计，5月份通胀继续加速，但预计在新收成和能源行业状况与去年相比有所改善的支持下，通胀将在夏季放缓。

The National Bank of Ukraine left its key policy rate steady at 15.5% at its June 2025 meeting, marking a second consecutive pause, aiming to support FX market stability, anchor expectations, and guide inflation gradually back to its 5% target over the policy horizon. Policymakers said this stance will support the sustainability of the FX market and keep inflation expectations in check, which will help bring inflation back to a steady decline trajectory. Ukraine’s annual inflation rate quickened to 15.1% in April from 14.6% in March, extending its upward streak to 11 months and reaching its highest point since May 2023. The central bank estimates that inflation continued to accelerate in May but expects it to slow over the summer, supported by the new harvest and improved energy sector conditions compared to last year.

乌克兰的年通货膨胀率从上个月的14.6%上升到2025年4月的15.1%，这是连续第11次上升，标志着自2023年5月以来的最大通货膨胀率。这一增长与乌克兰国家银行的警告相一致，即通胀预期的上升可能会推动价格增长达到比预期更高的水平。食品和非酒精饮料（19.8%）、酒精饮料（17.4%）和通信（18.5%）拉动了通货膨胀。反过来，运输业的通货膨胀率仍然相对较低（6.9%）。与上月相比，乌克兰消费者价格上涨了0.7%。

The annual inflation rate in Ukraine rose to 15.1% in April of 2025 from 14.6% in the previous month, an 11th consecutive increase to mark the largest inflation rate since May of 2023. The rise was consistent with the National Bank of Ukraine's warning that increasing inflation expectations are likely to drive price growth to higher levels than expected. Inflation was pulled up by food and non-alcoholic beverages (19.8%), alcoholic beverages (17.4%), and communication (18.5%). In turn, inflation remained relatively lower for transportation (6.9%). From the previous month, Ukrainian consumer prices rose by 0.7%.

乌克兰央行行长Andriy Pyshnyi告诉路透社，在与欧洲的经济联系不断加深和全球贸易碎片化的情况下，乌克兰正在权衡从美元转向欧元作为其参考货币的可能性。他指出，乌克兰的欧盟野心、欧盟日益增强的国防作用以及市场波动是重新评估盯住美元政策的原因。2023年10月，央行转向了有管理的汇率制度。

Ukraine is weighing a potential shift from the U.S. dollar to the euro as its reference currency amid deepening economic ties with Europe and global trade fragmentation, Central Bank Governor Andriy Pyshnyi told Reuters. He cited Ukraine's EU ambitions, the bloc’s growing defense role, and market volatility as reasons for reassessing the dollar peg. The central bank moved to a managed exchange rate regime in October 2023.