乌克兰PFTS指数 (PFTS) 加自选

乌克兰国家银行在10月份的会议上将其关键政策利率保持在15.5%，将借贷成本维持在2023年11月以来的最高水平，因为通胀预期仍然很高，通胀风险增加，特别是由于能源短缺加剧和预算需求增加。9月份消费者通胀同比放缓至11.9%，低于8月份的13.2%，政策制定者预计这一趋势将在10月份持续下去。然而，通胀率仍远高于央行5%的目标，潜在价格压力持续存在，核心通胀只是逐渐缓解。大多数受访群体的通胀预期在过去一个季度几乎没有改善，反映了战争的持续影响。展望未来，央行预计将在2026年第一季度开始降息，但警告称，如果促通胀风险加剧或潜在价格压力仍然很大，这一时间表可能会推迟。

The National Bank of Ukraine kept its key policy rate at 15.5% during its October meeting, maintaining borrowing costs at the highest level since November 2023, as inflation expectations remained elevated and inflationary risks increased, particularly due to larger energy shortages and rising budgetary needs. Consumer inflation slowed to 11.9% year-on-year in September, down from 13.2% in August, and policymakers expect this trend to have continued in October. Nevertheless, inflation remains well above the central bank’s 5% target, with underlying price pressures persisting and core inflation easing only gradually. Inflation expectations among most surveyed groups showed little improvement over the past quarter, reflecting the ongoing impact of the war. Looking ahead, the central bank expects to begin interest rate cuts in Q1 2026, but warned that the timeline could be delayed if pro-inflationary risks intensify or underlying price pressures remain significant.

乌克兰总理尤利娅·斯维里登科周一表示，乌克兰政府已制定2026年预算草案，目标是赤字占国内生产总值的18.4%，并大幅增加国防资金。据路透社报道，Svyrydenko在Telegram应用程序上的一篇帖子中表示，预算草案概述了2.8万亿格里夫尼亚（670亿美元）的收入和约4.8万亿格里夫纳的支出。她指出，乌克兰计划明年将预算收入增加约4470亿格里夫纳，但她没有具体说明将采取哪些措施来实现这一目标。国家收入的很大一部分将用于国防。预算国防开支将增加1686亿格里夫纳，到2026年将达到约2.8万亿格里夫纳——约占国内生产总值的27.2%。财政部表示，预算草案包括明年约2.1万亿格里夫纳（500亿美元）的外国融资计划。

Ukraine’s government has prepared a draft budget for 2026, targeting a deficit of 18.4% of gross domestic product, with a significant increase in funding for defense, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on Monday. The draft budget outlines 2.8 trillion hryvnias ($67 billion) in revenues and approximately 4.8 trillion hryvnias in expenditures, Svyrydenko stated in a post on the Telegram app, as reported by Reuters. She noted that Ukraine plans to boost its budget revenues by about 447 billion hryvnias next year, though she did not specify which measures would be used to achieve this. A large portion of state revenues will be allocated to defense. Budgeted defense spending is set to rise by 168.6 billion hryvnias, reaching around 2.8 trillion hryvnias—or approximately 27.2% of GDP—in 2026. The Finance Ministry said the draft budget includes plans for approximately 2.1 trillion hryvnias ($50 billion) in foreign financing next year.

乌克兰国家银行决定在2025年9月11日将其政策利率维持在15.5%，保持连续四次会议不变。政策制定者表示，目前的立场将使央行能够维持适当的货币条件，支持外汇市场的稳定，锚定预期，并引导通胀达到5%的目标。消费者价格增长已连续三个月放缓，8月份同比下降至13.2%，这得益于市场上新收成的到来，尽管仍处于高位。央行预计通胀将进一步下降，这既反映了新收成的影响，也反映了国家银行为保持格里夫纳资产吸引力和外汇市场稳定所采取的措施。央行强调，全面战争仍然是通货膨胀和经济的主要风险，并指出外部援助确保了充足的储备和预算融资。

The National Bank of Ukraine has decided to leave its policy rate at 15.5% on September 11, 2025, maintaining four straight meetings without a change. Policymakers stated that the current stance will allow the central bank to sustain appropriate monetary conditions, support stability in the FX market, anchor expectations, and guide inflation toward the 5% target. Consumer price growth has slowed for three consecutive months, falling to 13.2% year-on-year in August, aided by the arrival of the new harvest to the market, though it remains elevated. The central bank expects inflation to decline further, reflecting both the impact of fresh harvests and the NBU’s steps to maintain hryvnia asset attractiveness and FX market stability. The central bank underlined that the full-scale war remains the main risk to inflation and the economy, noting that external aid ensures sufficient reserves and budget financing.

乌克兰总理尤利娅·斯维里登科周二表示，乌克兰已正式向国际货币基金组织申请新的融资计划，因为与俄罗斯的战争继续使其财政紧张。乌克兰约60%的预算用于战争，而西方援助对于支付养老金、公共部门工资和人道主义需求仍然至关重要。Svyrydenko在X上写道：“积极的敌对行动仍在继续，我们编制2026年国家预算草案的前提是战争远未结束。”。

Ukraine has formally requested a new financing program from the International Monetary Fund as the war with Russia continues to strain its finances, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on Tuesday. About 60% of Ukraine’s budget is devoted to the war effort, while Western aid remains essential to cover pensions, public sector wages, and humanitarian needs. “Active hostilities continue, and our draft state budget for 2026 has been prepared with the understanding that the war is far from over,” Svyrydenko wrote on X. She said she submitted an official request during a meeting in Kyiv with Gavin Gray, head of the IMF’s monitoring mission, and noted that talks will continue “with the goal of securing a positive decision from the IMF Board of Directors by the end of this year.” Ukraine has already received USD 10.6 billion under its existing USD 15.6 billion Extended Fund Facility, but Svyrydenko did not specify how much Kyiv is seeking under the new plan.