冰岛股票指数 (ICEX) 加自选

冰岛的贸易逆差从去年同期的197亿冰岛克朗大幅收窄至2025年1月的76亿冰岛克朗。出口同比飙升19%，达到939亿冰岛克朗，主要归因于制造业产品（35%）、养殖鱼类（22%）和农产品（12%）的销售额增加。与此同时，在工业用品（27%）和运输设备（14%）采购增加的支持下，进口以3%的缓慢速度增长，达到1015亿冰岛克朗。然而，燃料和润滑油（-25%）、消费品（-10%）以及食品和饮料（-9%）的采购量下降。

Iceland’s trade deficit narrowed sharply to ISK 7.6 billion in January 2025 from ISK 19.7 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year. Exports soared 19% year-on-year to ISK 93.9 billion, primarily attributed to higher sales of manufacturing products (35%), farmed fish (22%), and agricultural products (12%). Meanwhile, imports rose at a much softer pace of 3% to ISK 101.5 billion, supported by increased purchases of industrial supplies n.e.s (27%) and transport equipment (14%). However, purchases declined for fuels and lubricants (-25%), consumer goods n.e.s (-10%), and food and beverages (-9%).

冰岛央行将基准利率下调50个基点至8.0%，与市场预期一致，此前1月份通胀率降至4.6%，基本通胀率为三年来最低。政策制定者补充说，预计未来几个月将出现进一步的通货紧缩。与此同时，由于紧缩的货币政策，经济增长放缓，正产出差距缩小。房地产市场已经降温，价格上涨放缓。然而，经济活动似乎比早期估计的要强劲，工资成本继续上升。展望未来，央行表示，未来的政策决定将以经济活动、通胀趋势和预期为指导。

Iceland’s Central Bank cut its key interest rate by 50 bps to 8.0%, aligning with market expectations, after inflation fell to 4.6% in January, with underlying inflation at its lowest in three years. Policymakers added that further disinflation is anticipated in the coming months. Meanwhile, economic growth has slowed due to tight monetary policy, narrowing the positive output gap. The housing market has cooled, with slower price increases. However, economic activity appears stronger than early estimates suggested, and wage costs continue to rise. Looking ahead, the central bank said future policy decisions will be guided by economic activity, inflation trends, and expectations.

2024年12月，冰岛生产者价格指数同比上涨7.1%，较上月近两年高点7.2%略有回落。出口产品（11月为8.8%对9.3%）和不包括海产品的出口产品（10.6%对11.5%）的价格有所放缓。此外，其他制造业的成本大幅下降（-1%对2%）。与此同时，金属行业（16.5%对15.1%）、食品生产（4.5%对3.9%）、海产品（5.7%对5.2%）和国内销售产品（2.7%对2.5%）的生产者通胀率上升。按月计算，12月份生产者价格指数下降0.6%，而前一时期上涨2.8%。

Iceland’s producer prices advanced by 7.1% year-on-year in December 2024, slightly easing from an almost two-year high of 7.2% in the previous month. Prices moderated for exported products (8.8% vs 9.3% in November) and exported products excluding marine products (10.6% vs 11.5%). Additionally, costs tumbled for other manufacturing industries (-1% vs 2%). Meanwhile, producer inflation increased for the metal industry (16.5% vs 15.1%), food production (4.5% vs 3.9%), marine products (5.7% vs 5.2%), and products sold domestically (2.7% vs 2.5%). On a monthly basis, producer prices declined by 0.6% in December, following a 2.8% gain in the preceding period.

2024年12月，冰岛经季节性调整的失业率升至3.9%，为三个月来最高，高于上月的2.7%。登记失业人数比一个月前增加了2800人，达到9200人。与此同时，就业率从11月的77.5%微升至78.2%，就业人数增加了500人，达到226900人。

Iceland’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in December 2024, the highest in three months, up from 2.7% in the preceding month. The number of registered unemployed increased by 2,800 from a month earlier to 9,200. Meanwhile, the employment rate edged up to 78.2% from 77.5% in November, with the number of employed individuals increasing by 500 to 226,900.