欧洲斯托克50指数 (EuroStoxx50) 加自选

欧元徘徊在1.16美元附近，为2021年11月以来的最高水平，因为投资者对欧洲央行和美联储日益分歧的政策路径做出了反应。这一转变是在油价上涨的背景下发生的，这是由于以色列和伊朗之间紧张局势升级以及持续的贸易关税争端引发的对供应中断的担忧。在欧元区，市场目前将欧洲央行的存款利率定为年底前1.79%，9月份降息的可能性从60%降至50%。欧洲央行政策制定者Joachim Nagel强调了保持政策灵活性的重要性，并列举了复杂的全球背景。与此同时，人们普遍预计美联储周三将保持利率不变。投资者的注意力将集中在最新的经济预测和点阵图上，市场仍预计最早可能在9月降息。

The euro hovered near $1.16, its strongest level since November 2021, as investors reacted to the increasingly divergent policy paths of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. The shift comes against a backdrop of rising oil prices, fueled by fears of supply disruptions stemming from escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, as well as ongoing trade tariff disputes. In the Eurozone, markets now price the ECB’s deposit rate at 1.79% by year-end, with the probability of a September rate cut slipping to 50%, down from 60%. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel stressed the importance of maintaining policy flexibility, citing the complex global backdrop. Meanwhile, the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday. Investor attention will focus on updated economic projections and the dot plot, with markets still anticipating a possible rate cut as early as September.

意大利10年期BTP收益率升至3.49%以上，达到6月5日以来的最高水平，因为投资者权衡了油价飙升带来的通胀风险，并展望了即将到来的美联储政策决定。由于以色列和伊朗之间的紧张局势加剧，原油价格已攀升至近五个月高点，加剧了人们对潜在供应中断的担忧，特别是如果霍尔木兹海峡受到影响的话。在货币方面，人们普遍预计美联储将在周三保持利率稳定，但市场将密切关注最新的经济预测和点阵图，以指导未来的走势。在欧元区，货币市场现在将欧洲央行12月的存款利率定为1.79%，9月降息的可能性从60%降至50%。欧洲央行政策制定者Joachim Nagel强调，鉴于经济前景面临的“异常不确定性”，需要政策灵活性。

Italy’s 10-year BTP yield rose above 3.49%, reaching its highest level since June 5, as investors weighed inflation risks stemming from surging oil prices and looked ahead to the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision. Crude prices have climbed to near five-month highs amid intensifying tensions between Israel and Iran, fueling fears of potential supply disruptions—particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is affected. On the monetary front, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but markets will be closely watching the updated economic projections and dot plot for guidance on future moves. In the Eurozone, money markets now price the ECB’s deposit rate at 1.79% by December, with the probability of a September rate cut slipping to 50%, down from 60%. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel emphasized the need for policy flexibility in light of the “exceptional uncertainty” facing the economic outlook.

法国10年期OAT收益率升至3.26%以上，触及5月23日以来的最高水平，投资者评估了油价上涨带来的通胀风险，并等待美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定。随着以色列和伊朗之间紧张局势的升级，原油价格飙升至近五个月高点，引发了人们对潜在供应中断的担忧，特别是如果霍尔木兹海峡被关闭的话。至于货币政策，人们普遍预计美联储周三将保持利率不变。然而，市场将密切关注最新的经济预测和点阵图，以寻找未来利率走势的线索。在欧元区，货币市场目前将欧洲央行的存款便利利率定价为年底前1.79%，而9月份降息的可能性已从60%降至50%。欧洲央行官员Joachim Nagel强调了保持灵活性的重要性，并指出经济前景存在“异常的不确定性”。

France’s 10-year OAT yield rose above 3.26%, having touched its highest level since May 23, as investors assessed the inflationary risks posed by rising oil prices and awaited the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week. Crude prices have surged to near five-month highs amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions—particularly if the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed. As for monetary policy, the Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. However, markets will closely scrutinize the updated economic projections and the dot plot for clues on the rate path ahead. In the Eurozone, money markets are now pricing the ECB’s deposit facility rate at 1.79% by year-end, while the likelihood of a September rate cut has fallen to 50%, down from 60%. ECB official Joachim Nagel stressed the importance of maintaining flexibility, citing the “exceptional uncertainty” surrounding the economic outlook.

德国10年期国债收益率升至2.55%以上，触及6月9日以来的最高水平，因为投资者权衡了油价飙升的潜在通胀影响，并展望了美联储本周晚些时候的政策决定。受以色列和伊朗之间紧张局势升级以及对霍尔木兹海峡被封锁后供应中断的担忧加剧的推动，油价已攀升至近五个月高点。在政策方面，人们普遍预计美联储将在周三保持利率不变，市场注意力转向最新的经济预测和备受关注的点阵图。与此同时，在欧洲，货币市场现在将欧洲央行到12月的存款便利利率定价为1.79%，9月降息的可能性从60%降至50%。欧洲央行政策制定者Joachim Nagel强调了灵活性的必要性，称经济前景存在“异常的不确定性”。

The yield on the German 10-year Bund rose above 2.55%, having touched its highest level since June 9, as investors weighed the potential inflationary impact of surging oil prices and looked ahead to the US Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. Oil prices have climbed to near five-month highs, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and growing fears of supply disruptions should the Strait of Hormuz be blocked. On the policy front, the Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with market attention turning to updated economic projections and the closely watched dot plot. Meanwhile in Europe, money markets are now pricing the ECB’s deposit facility rate at 1.79% by December, with the probability of a September rate cut slipping to 50%, down from 60%. ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel emphasized the need for flexibility, citing “exceptional uncertainty” in the economic outlook.