以色列TA100指数 (TA100) 加自选

以色列央行在2025年4月7日连续第十次会议上维持其关键利率不变，为4.5%，符合市场预期。央行的政策继续侧重于稳定市场、减少不确定性和支持经济活动，特别是在以色列-哈马斯冲突重新爆发的情况下。此外，美国关税政策的影响及其预期后果也引发了一些谨慎。政策制定者指出，2月份国内通胀率从1月份的3.8%降至3.4%，仍高于3%的目标区间上限，预计未来几个月将逐步放缓至目标水平。预计2025年通货膨胀率为2.6%，2026年为2.2%。与此同时，央行将2025年和2026年的GDP增长预测分别上调至3.5%和4%，均低于2月份的先前预测。

The Bank of Israel left its key interest rate unchanged at 4.5% for a tenth straight meeting on April 7, 2025, in line with market expectations. The central bank’s policy continues to focus on stabilizing markets, reducing uncertainty, and supporting economic activity, particularly in light of the resumed Israel-Hamas conflict. Additionally, the impact of the US tariff policy and its anticipated consequences has prompted some caution. Policymakers noted that domestic inflation eased to 3.4% in February from 3.8% in January, still above the target range’s upper limit of 3%, with expectations for gradual moderation toward the target in coming months. Inflation is seen at 2.6% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. Meanwhile, the central bank revised its GDP growth forecasts to 3.5% for 2025 and 4% for 2026, both lower than previously projected in February.

2025年2月，以色列的年通货膨胀率从上个月的3.8%的一年多高点降至3.4%，低于市场预测的3.7%。这一下降使通货膨胀率更接近以色列银行3%的上限目标，这在很大程度上受到蔬菜和水果价格下跌的影响（-0.8%对1月份的2.6%）。服装和鞋类（-2.4%对-1.8%）和家具和家用设备（-0.5%对0.4%）的价格也有所下降，而杂项（9.1%对9.7%）和运输与通信（1.3%对1.8%）的价格增长放缓。 另一方面，房价继续上涨（4.1%对3.9%）。按月计算，2月份消费者价格持平，前一个月上涨0.6%。

Israel’s annual inflation rate fell to 3.4% in February 2025, from an over one-year high of 3.8% in the prior month and below market forecasts of 3.7%. This decline brings inflation closer to the Bank of Israel’s 3% upper target, largely influenced by a reduction in vegetable and fruit prices (-0.8% vs. 2.6% in January). Prices also decreased for clothing & footwear (-2.4% vs. -1.8%) and furnishings & household equipment (-0.5% vs. 0.4%), while price growth slowed for miscellaneous items (9.1% vs. 9.7%) and transport & communications (1.3% vs. 1.8%). On the other hand, housing prices continued to rise (4.1% vs 3.9%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices were flat in February, following a 0.6% increase in the prior month.

2025年2月，以色列的贸易逆差从去年同期的34亿美元收窄至25.2亿美元。这是自2024年8月以来最小的贸易逆差，出口同比增长3.7%，达到46.3亿美元，主要原因是农业、林业和渔业（37.8%）以及制造业、采矿业和采石业（不包括加工钻石）的销售额增加（1.7%）。与此同时，进口额同比下降8.6%，至71.5亿美元，主要原因是原材料（-15.9%）和投资品（-10.9%）的采购量减少。然而，消费品的购买量有所增加（11.3%）。

Israel’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 2.52 billion in February 2025 from USD 3.4 billion in the corresponding month of the previous year. This marked the smallest trade deficit since August 2024, as exports grew by 3.7% year-on-year to USD 4.63 billion, mainly attributed to higher sales of agriculture, forestry and fishing (37.8%) and manufacturing, mining and quarrying excluding working diamonds (1.7%). Meanwhile, imports fell by 8.6% from a year earlier to USD 7.15 billion, mainly due to lower purchases of raw materials (-15.9%) and investment goods (-10.9%). However, purchases increased for consumer goods (11.3%).

2024年第四季度，以色列的经常账户盈余为29.8亿美元，是自2021年第三季度以来的最小盈余，而上一季度的盈余为46.9亿美元。商品和服务盈余从36.4亿美元缩小到23.5亿美元，主要收入赤字从8亿美元扩大到14.3亿美元。另一方面，中等收入盈余从18.7亿美元增至20.6亿美元。

Israel recorded a current account surplus of $2.98 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, the smallest surplus since the third quarter of 2021, compared to a downwardly revised $4.69 billion in the previous period. The goods and services surplus narrowed to $2.35 billion from $3.64 billion and the primary income deficit widened to $1.43 billion from $0.8 billion. On the other hand, the secondary income surplus rose to $2.06 billion from $1.87 billion.