以色列TA100指数 (TA100) 加自选

根据第三项估计，以色列经济在2025年第一季度的年化增长率为3.5%，低于3.7%的二次读数，明显高于2024年第四季度修正后的1.9%的增长率。这一扩张是由固定资本形成总额增长6.2%和政府支出小幅增长0.1%推动的，而家庭消费下降了4.1%。在贸易方面，商品和服务出口下降0.2%，进口增长6.2%。由于地缘政治的不确定性，以色列银行将全年增长预测从4.0%下调至3.5%。

Israel’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the first quarter of 2025, according to a third estimate, slowing from a second reading of 3.7% and significantly higher than the revised 1.9% growth recorded in Q4 2024. The expansion was driven by a 6.2% rise in gross fixed capital formation and a slight 0.1% increase in government spending, while household consumption fell 4.1%. On the trade front, exports of goods and services dipped 0.2%, while imports climbed 6.2%. The Bank of Israel has cut its full-year growth forecast to 3.5%, down from 4.0%, amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

以色列的年通货膨胀率从5月份的近一年低点3.1%上升到2025年6月的3.3%，超过了市场估计的3.1%。这一数字仍高于政府1%至3%的年度目标范围。按月计算，消费者价格在5月份以类似的速度下跌并高于市场预测的0.1%的涨幅后，小幅上涨0.3%，主要受娱乐、食品、新鲜蔬菜、住房、健康和交通以及电信价格的推动。

Israel’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.3% in June 2025 from a near one-year low of 3.1% in May and surpassing market estimates of 3.1%. The figure remained above the government’s annual target range of 1% to 3%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up by 0.3%, after falling by a similar rate in May and above market forecasts of a 0.1% increase, mainly fueled by prices of entertainment, food, fresh vegetables, housing, health and transportation and telecommunications.

穆迪于2025年7月7日确认以色列的评级为“Baa1”，维持“负面”展望，但警告称，与伊朗的持续军事冲突可能会加剧财政压力。该机构指出，自2023年10月以来，地缘政治风险上升是以色列财政状况疲软的关键因素。穆迪现在预计，由于国防开支增加和经济增长放缓，以色列的债务与国内生产总值之比将在中期达到75%左右的峰值，高于此前预测的70%。该机构警告称，新的冲突可能会破坏基础设施，破坏安全，并对投资和经济活动造成压力。5月，标普全球也确认了以色列的“A/A-1”评级，但指出长期冲突可能会损害经济和财政表现。惠誉评级表示，以色列与伊朗冲突的任何影响似乎都在以色列目前的“A”评级范围内，尽管前景是负面的。

Moody’s affirmed Israel’s ratings at “Baa1” on July 7, 2025, maintaining a “negative” outlook, but warned that continued military conflict with Iran could deepen fiscal pressures. The agency cited elevated geopolitical risks since October 2023 as a key factor behind Israel’s weakened fiscal position. Moody’s now expects Israel’s debt-to-GDP ratio to peak around 75% in the medium term, up from a previous forecast of 70%, due to increased defense spending and slower economic growth. The agency cautioned that renewed conflict could damage infrastructure, undermine security, and weigh on investment and economic activity. In May, S&P Global also affirmed Israel’s “A/A-1” rating but noted that prolonged conflict could hurt economic and fiscal performance. Fitch Ratings said any fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict appeared manageable within Israel’s current “A” rating range, albeit with a negative outlook.

以色列银行于2025年7月7日连续第十二次会议将基准利率稳定在4.5%，符合市场预期。这一决定反映了谨慎乐观的前景，因为经济继续以温和的速度复苏，第一季度国内生产总值年化增长率为3.7%，与世界银行预测的2025年3.3%的增长率非常接近。5月份，年通胀率降至3.1%，但仍高于目标区间的上限。劳动力市场仍然紧张，职位空缺与失业人员的比例一直很高。自上次利率决定以来，谢克尔对美元和欧元大幅升值。以色列银行表示，在国内和全球持续存在重大地缘政治不确定性的情况下，它将继续密切监测通胀趋势、金融市场稳定和整体经济活动，以指导未来的货币政策方向。

The Bank of Israel held its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.5% for the twelfth consecutive meeting on July 7, 2025, in line with market expectations. This decision reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook as the economy continues to recover at a moderate pace, with GDP growing by an annualized 3.7% in the first quarter—closely matching the Bank’s forecast of 3.3% growth for 2025. Annual inflation eased to 3.1% in May, though it remains above the upper bound of the target range. The labor market remains tight, as shown by a persistently high ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons. Since the previous rate decision, the shekel has appreciated sharply against the dollar and the euro. The Bank of Israel stated that it will continue to closely monitor inflation trends, financial market stability, and overall economic activity to guide the future course of monetary policy, amid ongoing significant geopolitical uncertainties both domestically and globally.