新加坡海峡时报指数 (STI) 加自选

新加坡的非石油国内出口（NODX）在2025年1月同比下降2.1%，扭转了2024年12月9%的增长，而预计下降2.5%。这是自去年10月以来NODX的首次下降，原因是农历新年期间非电子产品销量下降。由于药品（-53%）、专用机械（-9.9%）和杂项制成品（-20.0%）的销售下降，非电子产品出口大幅萎缩4.8%，扭转了12月份6.6%的增长。与此同时，受集成电路（14.6%）、个人电脑（66.7%）和磁盘介质产品（31.5%）的推动，电子产品出货量增长了9.6%，较12月的18.6%大幅放缓。出口主要下降到中国（-48.4%）、印度尼西亚（-14.8%）、泰国（-6.0%）、马来西亚（-1.3%）和欧盟（-7.3%）。上周五，新加坡企业预计今年非石油国内出口将增长1%至3%。按月计算，NODX下跌3.3%，为三个月来首次下跌。

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) dropped 2.1% year-on-year in January 2025, reversing a 9% growth in December 2024, compared to estimates of a 2.5% fall. It marked the first decline in NODX since last October, due to a drop in non-electronic product sales amid the Lunar New Year period. Non-electronic exports strongly shrank by 4.8%, reversing from a 6.6% rise in December, due to lower sales of pharmaceuticals (-53%), specialized machinery (-9.9%), and miscellaneous manufactured articles (-20.0%). Meanwhile, electronic product shipments rose by 9.6%, easing sharply from an 18.6% surge in December, boosted by integrated circuits (14.6%), PCs (66.7%), and disk media products (31.5%). Exports fell mainly to China (-48.4%), Indonesia (-14.8%), Thailand (-6.0%), Malaysia (-1.3%), and the EU (-7.3%). Last Friday, Enterprise Singapore expected non-oil domestic exports to grow between 1% and 3% this year. On a monthly basis, NODX fell 3.3%, the first decline in three months.

新加坡的经常账户盈余从2023年同期的259.0亿新元扩大到2024年第四季度的288.1亿新元。服务账户盈余从119.7亿新元提前至151.5亿新元，主要原因是运输和货运服务增加，而第四季度主要收入赤字从2023年第四季度的391.8亿新元降至324.5亿新元。与此同时，由于进口激增，商品账户盈余从2023年第四季度的550.5亿新元大幅降至481.8亿新元。此外，二级收入差距从19.5亿新元增加到24.8亿新元。2024年全年，经常账户盈余从上一年的1205亿新元增加到1278亿新元。

Singapore's current account surplus widened to SGD 28.81 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024 from SGD 25.90 billion in the same period of 2023. The services account surplus advanced to SGD 15.15 billion from SGD 11.97 billion, mainly due to higher transport and freight services while the primary income deficit declined to SGD 32.45 billion in Q4 from SGD 39.18 billion in Q4 of 2023. Meanwhile, the goods account surplus fell sharply to SGD 48.18 billion from SGD 55.05 billion in Q4 of 2023, amid a surge in imports. Additionally, the secondary income gap increased to SGD 2.48 billion from SGD 1.95 billion. For the 2024 full year, the current account surplus increased to SGD 127.80 billion from SGD 120.05 billion in the previous year.

根据最终数据，新加坡经济在2024年第四季度同比增长5%，与第三季度5.7%的增长率相比有所放缓。全年经济增长4.4%，超过2023年1.8%的增长率。制造业继续表现强劲，在上一季度增长11.2%之后，第四季度增长了7.4%。建筑业在第三季度增长5.6%的基础上，第四季度也实现了4.4%的稳健增长。第四季度服务业总量同比增长4.6%，批发零售业、运输仓储业、信息通信业、金融保险业、专业服务业增长显著。

Singapore's economy grew by 5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, a slowdown from the 5.7% expansion in the third quarter, according to the final data. For the full year, the economy expanded by 4.4%, surpassing the 1.8% growth recorded in 2023. The manufacturing sector continued to show strength, growing by 7.4% in Q4, following an 11.2% expansion in the previous quarter. The construction sector also posted a solid 4.4% growth in Q4, building on a 5.6% increase in Q3. Services-producing industries collectively expanded by 4.6% year-on-year in Q4, with notable growth in wholesale and retail trade, transportation and storage, as well as information and communication, finance and insurance, and professional services.

新加坡第四季度GDP同比增长5%，高于预期（预期为4.7%）。新加坡企业局报告称，2024年商品贸易总额增长了6.6%。新加坡企业局表示，非石油国内出口（NODX）在2024年增长了0.2%。新加坡企业部预计，2025年非石油国内贸易将增长1.0%至3.0%。新加坡企业局表示，2025年的外部前景仍然支持全球经济和贸易增长。新加坡企业警告称，主要经济体之间持续的贸易摩擦可能会在2025年创造一个更具挑战性和竞争力的贸易环境。新加坡企业指出，不确定性可能会影响全球增长，并对2025年的NODX预测构成下行风险。

Singapore Q4 GDP blasted higher than estimates at 5% y/y (expected 4.7%).Enterprise Singapore reports total merchandise trade rose by 6.6% in 2024.Enterprise Singapore says non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew by 0.2% in 2024.Enterprise Singapore projects non-oil domestic exports to grow by 1.0% to 3.0% in 2025.Enterprise Singapore states that the external outlook for 2025 remains supportive of global economic and trade growth.Enterprise Singapore warns that ongoing trade frictions among major economies could create a more challenging and competitive trade environment in 2025.Enterprise Singapore notes that uncertainties could weigh on global growth and pose downside risks to the NODX forecast for 2025.