新加坡海峡时报指数 (STI) 加自选

2025年3月，新加坡的非石油国内出口（NODX）同比增长5.4%，远低于市场预测的13.6%的激增，较上个月的7.6%有所缓解，电子和非电子产品的出口都在增长。由于非货币黄金（64.7%）和药品（24.9%）的销售增加，非电子产品出口增长3.8%，较2月份的7.7%有所放缓。与此同时，受个人电脑（121.4%）、磁盘介质产品（35.7%）和集成电路（6.5%）的推动，电子产品出货量激增11.9%，高于1月份的6.9%。对日本（12.0%）、韩国（21.6%）、印度尼西亚（63.0%）、台湾（45.7%）、香港（14.2%）、马来西亚（12.4%）、泰国（12.1%）、美国（5.7%）和欧盟（5.7%。按月计算，NODX暴跌7.6%，与2月份2.6%的涨幅大幅逆转。

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) increased 5.4% year-on-year in March 2025, much softer than market forecasts of a 13.6% surge, easing from a 7.6% rise in the previous month, with exports of both electronics and non-electronics rising. Non-electronic exports rose by 3.8%, easing from a 7.7% rise in February, due to higher sales of non-monetary gold (64.7%) and pharmaceuticals (24.9%). Meanwhile, electronic product shipments surged by 11.9%, accelerating from a 6.9% gain in January, boosted by PCs (121.4%), disk media products (35.7%), and integrated circuits (6.5%). Exports increased to Japan (12.0%), South Korea (21.6%), Indonesia ( 63.0%), Taiwan (45.7%), Hong Kong (14.2%), Malaysia (12.4%), Thailand (12.1%), the US (5.7%), and the EU (5.7%) while declining to China (-29.4%). On a monthly basis, NODX plunged 7.6%, reversing sharply from a 2.6% rise in February.

周一早盘，STI指数飙升59点，至3571点，涨幅1.7%，抹去了前一交易日的跌幅，追随特朗普总统决定暂时暂停对电子产品进口征收互惠关税后美国期货的上涨。尽管第一季度GDP增长低于预期，但新加坡金融管理局连续第二次放松货币政策也提振了市场情绪。然而，在与美国的贸易紧张局势升级的情况下，交易员在今天晚些时候公布的中国贸易数据之前持谨慎态度，此前上周的数据显示，中国大陆的消费者和生产者价格表明国内需求进一步疲软。几乎所有行业都以绿色交易为主，能源矿产和耐用消费品领涨。表现最好的是丰树物流（+3.7%）、大华银行（+2.3%）、华侨银行（+2.3%）和星展银行（+1.8%）。

The STI Index soared 59 points, or 1.7%, to 3,571 in morning trade on Monday, erasing losses from the previous session, tracking a rise in U.S. futures following President Trump's decision to temporarily reprieve electronic imports from imposing reciprocal tariffs. Easing monetary policy from the Monetary Authority of Singapore for the second straight time also lifted sentiment, despite weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP growth. However, traders were cautious ahead of Chinese trade data due later today, amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S., after last week’s data showed that consumer and producer prices in the mainland pointed to further weak domestic demand. Almost all sectors traded in the green, led by energy minerals and consumer durables. Among the top performers were Mapletree Logistics (+3.7%), UOB (+2.3%), OCBC (+2.3%), and DBS (+1.8%).

新加坡金融管理局（MAS）连续第二次放松货币政策，此前在1月份采取了类似举措，这是自2020年以来的首次，因为第一季度GDP增长率低于预期，为3.8%，全球经济前景不断恶化。新加坡央行周一表示，将保持新加坡元名义有效汇率（S$NEER）区间适度渐进升值，但汇率略有下调。带的宽度和中心保持不变。央行指出：“在外部前景疲软的情况下，新加坡的产出缺口将转为负值。”并补充说，成本压力将保持在较低水平，“预计新加坡金融管理局的核心通胀率将远低于2%。”它还表示，“通胀风险倾向于下行。”新加坡金融管理局将2025年的核心通胀预测从之前的1.0%-2.0%下调至0.5%-1.5%，并将整体通胀预测从1.5%-2.5%下调至0.5%-1.5%。

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) eased its monetary policy for the second straight time, following a similar move in January—the first since 2020—amid weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP growth of 3.8% and a deteriorating global economic outlook. The central bank said on Monday it would maintain a modest and gradual appreciation of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) band but at a slightly reduced rate. The width and center of the band remain unchanged. “Amid the weakening external outlook, Singapore's output gap will turn negative,” the central bank noted, adding that cost pressures will stay low and “MAS Core Inflation is forecast to stay well below 2%.” It also said, “The risks to inflation are tilted towards the downside.” MAS lowered its 2025 core inflation forecast to 0.5%-1.5% from 1.0%-2.0% previously and cut its headline inflation forecast to 0.5%-1.5%, from 1.5%-2.5%.

闪存数据显示，新加坡经济在2024年第一季度同比增长3.8%，较第三季度的5.0%有所放缓，未达到市场普遍预期的4.2%。这是自2024年第二季度以来在外部逆风加剧的情况下最疲软的增长。制造业增长放缓（第三季度为5.0%对7.4%），除化学品和一般制造业外，所有集群都有所增长。此外，服务业活动放缓（3.4%对4.6%），批发和零售贸易、通信、金融和保险业增长放缓，而住宿业保持稳定。受公共和私营部门项目活动增加的推动，建筑产出增长略快（4.6%对4.4%）。季度，该国的国内生产总值收缩了0.8%，扭转了第三季度0.5%的增长，标志着两年来的首次下降。到2025年，政府预计经济将增长0%至2%，低于此前预测的1%至3%。去年，国内生产总值增长了4%，远高于2023年1.1%的增长。

Singapore's economy expanded 3.8% yoy in Q1 of 2024, slowing from a 5.0% increase in Q3 and falling short of market consensus of 4.2%, flash data showed. It was the softest growth since Q2 of 2024 amid mounting external headwinds. Growth in the manufacturing sector slowed (5.0% vs 7.4% in Q3), amid gains across all clusters except chemicals and general manufacturing. Also, services activity moderated (3.4% vs 4.6%), as wholesale and retail trade, communication, and finance & insurance sectors saw slower growth, while accommodation remained steady. Construction output rose slightly faster (4.6% vs 4.4%), driven by increased activity in public and private sector projects. Quarterly, the country's GDP contracted by 0.8%, reversing a 0.5% rise in Q3 and marking the first decline in two years. For 2025, the government expects the economy to grow between 0% and 2%, down from an earlier forecast of 1% to 3%. Last year, the GDP increased by 4%, much stronger than a 1.1% gain in 2023.