新加坡海峡时报指数 (STI) 加自选

新加坡金融管理局周三发布的季度调查显示，经济学家上调了新加坡2025年的增长前景，并预计货币政策在下一次审查中保持不变。该调查基于私营部门的回应，并不代表新加坡金融管理局自己的观点或预测。由于上半年业绩强劲，政府在8月将2025年的增长区间上调至1.5-2.5%，随后中位增长预测从6月的1.7%上调至2.4%。经济学家预计第三季度同比增长0.9%。地缘政治紧张局势被认为是主要的下行风险，而贸易摩擦的缓解和科技股的上涨被视为主要的利好因素。MAS在1月和4月放松政策后，于7月保持政策稳定，大多数人预计10月或2026年1月不会改变。通胀预测仍然低迷：核心通胀率从0.8%降至0.7%，整体通胀率保持在0.9%，7月份0.5%的核心通胀率为三年多来的最低水平。

The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s quarterly survey released on Wednesday showed economists have raised Singapore’s 2025 growth outlook and expect monetary policy to remain unchanged at the next review. The survey, based on private-sector responses, does not represent MAS’s own views or forecasts. The median growth forecast was lifted to 2.4% from 1.7% in June, after the government raised its 2025 range to 1.5–2.5% in August on stronger H1 results. Economists projected Q3 growth at 0.9% year-on-year. Geopolitical tensions were cited as the main downside risk, while easing trade frictions and a tech upturn were seen as key upsides. MAS held policy steady in July after easing in January and April, with most expecting no change in October or January 2026. Inflation forecasts remained subdued: core inflation was trimmed to 0.7% from 0.8%, headline stayed at 0.9%, and July’s 0.5% core inflation marked the lowest in over three years.