菲律宾综合股价指数 (PSEi) 加自选

菲律宾的商业信心指数从前三个月的31.2降至2025年第二季度的28.8。这是自2022年第四季度以来的最低读数，受对菲律宾对美国出口征收17%互惠关税的潜在经济影响的担忧拖累。本季度，制造商（第一季度为17.9比18.3）、零售商（31.8比34.1）和服务提供商（31.7比35.9）的情绪减弱。相反，建筑商的情绪有所增强（38.2比35.8）。与此同时，下一季度（39.3比45.4）和来年（51.0比56.4）的业务前景有所下降。

The Business Confidence Index in the Philippines dropped to 28.8 in the second quarter of 2025, from 31.2 in the previous three-month period. This marked the lowest reading since the fourth quarter of 2022, dragged down by concerns over the potential economic effects of a 17% reciprocal tariff on Philippine exports to the US. During the quarter, sentiment weakened among manufacturers (17.9 vs 18.3 in Q1), retailers (31.8 vs 34.1), and service providers (31.7 vs 35.9). Conversely, sentiment strengthened among constructors (38.2 vs 35.8). Meanwhile, the business outlook declined for the next quarter (39.3 vs 45.4) and for the coming year (51.0 vs 56.4).

标准普尔全球菲律宾制造业采购经理人指数从上个月的50.1升至2025年6月的50.7。这标志着扩张领域连续第三个月，6月份新订单继续增加，增长速度略强于上月，这得益于成功的客户收购、需求基本面的改善和有效的促销活动。因此，新订单的增加有助于将生产水平重新提升到扩张领域，尽管幅度不大。在就业方面，由于需求增加，就业人数四个月来首次增长，创下2024年11月以来的最大增幅。在定价方面，通胀压力仍处于历史低位，投入成本和产出价格的上涨速度均低于5月份。展望未来，在更多客户、正在进行的项目、稳定的本地需求和有效的促销活动的支撑下，产出预期较5月有所改善。

The S&P Global Philippines Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in June 2025, up from 50.1 in the previous month. This marked the third consecutive month in expansion territory, as new orders continued to increase in June, with the pace of growth slightly stronger than the previous month, supported by successful customer acquisitions, improving demand fundamentals, and effective promotional activities. Consequently, the rise in new orders helped lift production levels back into expansion territory, albeit marginally. On the employment side, jobs grew for the first time in four months, recording the strongest increase since November 2024, attributed to higher demand requirements. On the pricing front, inflationary pressures remained historically subdued, with both input costs and output prices rising at a slower rate than in May. Looking ahead, output expectations improved compared to May, underpinned by more customers, ongoing projects, steady local demand, and effective promotions.

菲律宾的消费者信心指数从上一时期的-13降至2025年第二季度的-14。这标志着自2024年第三季度以来消费者信心最弱，原因是通货膨胀加剧、家庭收入下降和就业机会减少。在组成指标中，受访者对国家的经济状况（-35.6比第一季度的-33.9）和家庭的财务状况（-8.0比-6.1）更为悲观。然而，人们对他们的家庭收入更为乐观（1.6比1.0）。与此同时，消费者对未来12个月该国经济前景的预期较上一季度略有下降（第一季度为11.8对12.4），也低于去年第二季度的13.5。

The consumer confidence indicator in the Philippines declined to -14 in the second quarter of 2025 from -13 in the previous period. It marks the weakest consumer confidence since the third quarter of 2024, due to higher inflation, lower family income, and fewer job opportunities. Among the component indicators, respondents were more pessimistic about the country’s economic condition (-35.6 vs -33.9 in Q1) and their family’s financial situation (-8.0 vs -6.1). However, views were more optimistic regarding their family income (1.6 vs 1.0). Meanwhile, consumer expectations for the country’s economic prospects over the next 12 months slightly fell from the previous quarter (11.8 vs 12.4 in Q1), and were also lower than the 13.5 recorded in Q2 of the previous year.

由于出口增加而进口下降，菲律宾的贸易逆差从去年同期的47亿美元缩小到2025年5月的33亿美元。受黄金（102.2%）、其他制成品（70.6%）和铜精矿（67.6%）销售增长的推动，出口同比增长15.1%，达到73亿美元。美国的出口份额最大（15.3%），其次是香港（15.2%）、日本（14.3%）和中国（10.2%）。与此同时，进口下降4.4%，至106亿美元，主要原因是矿物燃料、润滑油和相关材料（-39.6%）、谷物和谷物制剂（-16.4%）以及钢铁（-12.2%）的采购减少。中国仍然是最大的进口来源国，占进口总额的29.7%，其次是印度尼西亚（8.5%）、日本（7.6%）和韩国（6.4%）。考虑到今年前五个月，贸易逆差降至197亿美元，而去年同期为207亿美元。

The Philippines’ trade deficit narrowed to USD 3.3 billion in May 2025 from USD 4.7 billion in the same month last year, as exports rose while imports fell. Year-on-year, exports climbed by 15.1% to USD 7.3 billion, driven by higher sales of gold (102.2%), other manufactured goods (70.6%), and copper concentrates (67.6%). The US accounted for the largest share of exports (15.3%), followed by Hong Kong (15.2%), Japan (14.3%), and China (10.2%). Meanwhile, imports dropped by 4.4% to USD 10.6 billion, mainly due to reduced purchases of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (-39.6%), cereals and cereal preparations (-16.4%), and iron and steel (-12.2%). China remained the top import source, accounting for 29.7% of total imports, followed by Indonesia (8.5%), Japan (7.6%), and South Korea (6.4%). Considering the first five months of the year, the trade deficit decreased to USD 19.7 billion, compared to USD 20.7 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.