蒙古证交所20指数 (MSETOP20) 加自选

2025年6月，蒙古的贸易顺差从去年同期的5.488亿美元大幅收窄至1.948亿美元。出口同比下降22.8%，至11.83亿美元，而进口增长0.5%，至9.88亿美元。1月至6月，贸易顺差从一年前的25.111亿美元降至10.532亿美元。出口同比下降16.6%，至6581.4美元，主要受煤炭、洗羊绒、原油、绵羊和山羊肉、铁矿石和精矿销售的推动。中国仍然是蒙古的最大出口市场，占出口量的91.7%，煤炭、铜矿石和精矿（44%）占出口的大部分。与此同时，进口额增长2.8%，达到55.282亿美元，主要是由于乘用车、汽车零部件、手机和酒精饮料的购买量增加。中国占进口的最大份额（38.3%），其次是俄罗斯（23.6%）和日本（12.7%）。

Mongolia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 194.8 million in June 2025 from USD 548.8 million in the same month of the previous year. Exports plunged by 22.8% year-on-year to USD 1,183 million, while imports rose by 0.5% to USD 988 million. For the January to June period, the trade surplus contracted to USD 1,053.2 million from USD 2,511.1 million a year earlier. Exports dropped by 16.6% from a year earlier to USD 6,581.4, driven by sales of coal, washed cashmere, crude oil, sheep and goat meat, and iron ore and concentrates. China remained Mongolia’s top export market, accounting for 91.7% of outbound shipments, with coal and copper ores and concentrates (44%) making up the bulk of exports. Meanwhile, imports rose by 2.8% to USD 5,528.2 million, mainly due to higher purchases of passenger cars, vehicle spare parts and components, mobile phones, and alcoholic beverages. China accounted for the largest share of imports (38.3%), followed by Russia (23.6%), and Japan (12.7%).

蒙古国的年通货膨胀率从前一个月的8.3%降至2025年6月的8.2%。这是自2024年11月以来的最低通胀率，因为酒精饮料和烟草（3.7%对5月份的3.8%）、住房和公用事业（21%对21.5%）、家具、家用设备和工具（6.5%对6.7%）、交通（4.3%对4.5%）以及餐馆和酒店（12.1%对14%）的价格有所放缓。此外，食品和非酒精饮料（5.6%）、健康（5.1%）、教育（18.2%）、保险和金融服务（15.3%）以及杂项商品和服务（10.7%）的成本保持不变。与此同时，服装和鞋类（9.1%对9.0%）以及娱乐和文化（6.2%对5.5%）的通货膨胀率上升。按月计算，6月份消费者价格指数为0.2%，与5月份持平。

The annual inflation rate in Mongolia edged down to 8.2% in June 2025 from 8.3% in the previous month. This marks the lowest inflation reading since November 2024, as prices moderated for alcoholic beverages and tobacco (3.7% vs 3.8% in May), housing and utilities (21% vs 21.5%), furnishings, household equipment and tools (6.5% vs 6.7%), transport (4.3% vs 4.5%), and restaurants and hotels (12.1% vs 14%). Moreover, costs remained unchanged for food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.6%), health (5.1%), education (18.2%), insurance and financial services (15.3%), and miscellaneous goods and services (10.7%). Meanwhile, inflation increased for clothing and footwear (9.1% vs 9.0%) and recreation and culture (6.2% vs 5.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices stood at 0.2% in June, matching the same pace as in May.

蒙古央行在评估了宏观经济、银行业、市场以及国内和全球风险后，在3月份加息200个基点后，将基准利率保持在12%。5月份的年通货膨胀率从4月份的8.6%降至8.3%，为2024年11月以来的最低水平。尽管宽松政策早于预期，但预计今年通货膨胀率将保持在央行6%±2个百分点的目标之上。2025年第一季度，经济增长同比放缓至2.4%，低于上一季度的4.9%，低于预期，标志着自2022年第二季度以来最疲软的扩张。经济放缓的原因是采矿、运输收入以及税收和贸易部门的收缩。地缘政治紧张局势和贸易政策带来的外部不确定性继续影响需求和大宗商品价格。预计央行将保持谨慎灵活的货币政策，在持续的风险中平衡通胀控制和增长支持。

Mongolia's central bank kept its benchmark rate at 12%, following a 200-bps hike in March, after assessing the macroeconomy, banking sector, markets, and domestic and global risks. Annual inflation eased to 8.3% in May from 8.6% in April, the lowest since November 2024. Despite earlier-than-expected easing, inflation is expected to stay above the central bank’s 6% ± 2 percentage points target this year. Economic growth slowed to 2.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, down from 4.9% last quarter, missing expectations, and marking the weakest expansion since Q2 2022. The slowdown was driven by contractions in mining, transport revenues, and tax and trade sectors. External uncertainties from geopolitical tensions and trade policies continue to weigh on demand and commodity prices. The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious and flexible monetary policy, balancing inflation control with growth support amid ongoing risks.

2025年5月，蒙古的贸易顺差从上个月的5.488亿美元收窄至2.01亿美元。出口同比下降16.7%，至11.82亿美元，而进口增长1.2%，至9.81亿美元。1月至5月，贸易顺差从一年前的19.623亿美元降至8.845亿美元。受煤炭、洗羊绒、原油、铁矿石和精矿销售下降的推动，出口从去年同期下降14.7%，至54.2460亿美元。中国仍然是蒙古最大的出口市场，占出口量的91.9%，煤炭占出口的45.8%，其次是铜矿石和精矿，占37.2%。与此同时，进口额增长3.3%，达到45.401亿美元，主要是由于汽车、汽车零部件和手机的购买量增加。在贸易伙伴中，中国占进口份额最大（36.9%），其次是俄罗斯（24.3%）和日本（13.2%）。

Mongolia’s trade surplus narrowed to USD 201.0 million in May 2025 from USD 548.8 million in the same month of the previous. Exports fell by 16.7% year-on-year to USD 1,182.0 million, while imports rose by 1.2% to USD 981.0 million. For the January–May period, the trade surplus shrank to USD 884.5 million from USD 1,962.3 million a year earlier. Exports declined by 14.7% from a year earlier to USD 5,424.6 million from USD, driven by lower sales of coal, washed cashmere, crude petroleum oils, and iron ore and concentrates. China remained Mongolia’s largest export market, accounting for 91.9% of outbound shipments, coal made up 45.8% of exports, followed by copper ores and concentrates at 37.2%. Meanwhile, imports rose by 3.3% to USD 4,540.1 million, mainly due to higher purchases of cars, spare parts for vehicles, and mobile phones. Among trading partners, China accounted for the largest share of imports (36.9%), followed by Russia (24.3%) and Japan (13.2%).