印尼雅加达综合指数 (JCI) 加自选

印尼股市周五早盘上涨54点，涨幅0.7%，至8325点的新高，延续了前一交易日的涨幅，迄今为止每周涨幅约为5%。在白宫确认特朗普总统下周将在韩国会见中国领导人Xi后，贸易担忧缓解，华尔街隔夜出现乐观情绪，支撑市场情绪。与此同时，中国副总统何立峰将从今天起在马来西亚举行的东盟峰会上会见美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔。自2024年9月以来，印尼央行已六次降息，低利率的前景也鼓励了购买。财政部长Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa还表示，如果通胀率稳定在2.5%，央行可能会将关键利率降至3.5%。在全球范围内，美联储预计将在下周和12月再次降息。涨幅最大的公司包括联合利华印尼公司（5.8%）、印尼永久银行（3.5%）、独立电池材料公司（2.6%）和武吉阿萨姆公司（2.2%）。

Indonesian equities rose 54 points, or 0.7%, to a new high of 8,325 in early Friday trade, extending gains from the prior session and heading for a weekly jump of around 5% so far. Sentiment was underpinned by an upbeat session on Wall Street overnight following easing trade concerns after the White House confirmed that President Trump will meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week in South Korea. Meantime, China’s VP He Lifeng will meet U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Trade Representative Greer at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia from today. Prospects of lower interest rates also encouraged buying, after six cuts since September 2024 by Bank Indonesia. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa also said the central bank could slash its key rates to 3.5% if inflation stays stable at 2.5%. Globally, the U.S. Fed is expected to cut rates next week and again in December. Top movers included Unilever Indonesia (5.8%), Bank Permata (3.5%), Merdeka Battery Materials (2.6%), and Bukit Asam (2.2%).

周四，印尼盾兑美元汇率跌至16650印尼盾兑1美元，连续第二个交易日下跌，此前央行表示，在2026年之前通胀预期较低的情况下，有更大的降息空间。印尼央行周三出人意料地将基准利率稳定在4.75%，此前已连续三次下调，行长Perry Warjiyo表示，正在努力加强货币政策传导。自2024年9月以来，政策制定者已六次降息，总计150个基点。与此同时，今年印尼盾兑美元汇率下跌了约3%，是亚洲新兴市场中最疲软的货币之一。与此同时，普拉博沃·苏比安托总统的目标是在任期内将经济增长率提高到8%，而疫情后几年的增长率约为5%，并计划在2026年实现5.4%的增长。在其他地方，美元指数在今天晚些时候公布的9月份关键通胀报告之前小幅上涨，因为投资者评估了美国政府持续关闭的影响。

The Indonesian rupiah weakened toward 16,650 per dollar on Thursday, falling for the second consecutive session after the central bank signaled more room for rate cuts amid expectations of low inflation through 2026. Bank Indonesia on Wednesday unexpectedly held steady its benchmark rate at 4.75%, following three straight reductions, with Governor Perry Warjiyo saying efforts are underway to strengthen monetary policy transmission. Since September 2024, policymakers have slashed rates six times, totaling 150 basis points. Meanwhile, the rupiah has fallen about 3% against the dollar this year, among the weakest in emerging Asia. At the same time, President Prabowo Subianto aims to lift economic growth to 8% during his term, compared with around 5% in the post-pandemic years, and targets 5.4% growth in 2026. Elsewhere, the dollar index inched higher ahead of September's key inflation report due later today, as investors assessed the impact of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

周四早盘交易中，IDX综合指数上涨71点，涨幅0.9%，至8226点，从前一交易日下跌1%反弹。印尼央行表示，仍有进一步降息的空间，并预计到2026年通胀率将保持较低水平，此后几乎所有行业都上涨。周三，央行出人意料地保持基准利率稳定，在连续三次降息后暂停，以评估早些时候宽松政策的影响。在美国总统特朗普发表讲话后，市场情绪也有所改善。特朗普表示，他预计下周在韩国会晤期间将与中国Xi达成多项协议。投资者主要关注过去的报道，即华盛顿可能会对中国实施广泛的出口限制，以回应其最近的稀土限制。在美国关键通胀数据和下周联邦公开市场委员会会议之前的警惕性限制了进一步的上涨。早期的显著推动者包括联合利华印尼公司（7.7%）、印尼电信公司（4.4%）、Charoen Pokphand（3.9%）和HM Sampoerna（2.8%）。

The IDX Composite climbed 71 points or 0.9% to 8,226 on Thursday morning deals, bouncing back from a 1% drop in the prior session. Nearly all sectors advanced after Bank Indonesia said there remains room for further rate cuts, citing expectations of low inflation through 2026. The central bank on Wednesday unexpectedly held its benchmark rate steady, pausing after three consecutive cuts to assess the effects of earlier easing. Sentiment also improved following remarks from U.S. President Trump, who said he expects to reach several agreements with China’s Xi Jinping during their meeting in South Korea next week. Investors largely looked past reports that Washington may impose broad export restrictions on China in response to its recent rare earth curbs. Further gains were capped by vigilance ahead of key U.S. inflation data and next week’s FOMC meeting. Among early notable movers were Unilever Indonesia (7.7%), Telkom Indonesia (4.4%), Charoen Pokphand (3.9%), and HM Sampoerna (2.8%).

2025年9月，印尼的年贷款增长率同比增长7.7%，高于上月的7.56%，为6月以来的最高水平。尽管有所好转，但总体信贷需求仍然疲软，主要原因是企业采取观望态度，继续依赖内部企业融资，以及贷款利率持续高企。这种情况反映在大量未发放的贷款中，2025年9月达到2374.8万亿印尼盾，相当于批准的信贷上限总额的22.54%。在供应方面，银行仍然资本充足，以支持融资，正如29.29%的健康流动资产与第三方基金（LA/TPF）比率所表明的那样。第三方基金（TPF）在9月份也同比增长11.18%。展望未来，印尼央行预测，2025年全年的信贷增长可能会降至8-11%目标区间的下限，预计2026年将有更强劲的增长。

Indonesia’s annual loan growth rose by 7.7% year-on-year in September 2025, accelerating from 7.56% in the previous month and marking the highest level since June. Despite the upturn, overall credit demand remained subdued, mainly due to wait-and-see approach among businesses, continued reliance on internal corporate financing, and persistently high lending rates. This situation is reflected in the substantial volume of undisbursed loan facilities, which reached IDR 2,374.8 trillion in September 2025, equivalent to 22.54% of the total approved credit ceiling. On the supply side, banks remain well-capitalized to support financing, as indicated by a healthy Liquid Assets to Third-Party Funds (LA/TPF) ratio of 29.29%. Third-Party Funds (TPF) also grew robustly by 11.18% year-on-year in September. Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia forecasts that credit growth for full-year 2025 will likely fall at the lower end of the 8–11% target range, with a stronger increase expected in 2026.