巴西IBOVESPA股指 (iBovespa) 加自选

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨0.2%，收于136512点，为8月以来的最高水平，确保圣保罗交易所每周上涨1%，连续第五周上涨。股市反弹之际，投资者消化了国内通胀数据，全球对贸易谈判的乐观情绪推动了更广泛的风险偏好。巴西4月份的年通胀率升至5.53%，为2023年2月以来的最高水平，连续第六个月高于央行4.5%的上限目标。与此同时，随着美国和中国高级官员准备在瑞士举行会谈，全球贸易担忧有所缓解，而周四签署的美英贸易协定标志着关税紧张局势的缓和，改善了人们对巴西出口前景的看法。在企业新闻方面，Itaúsa在公布强劲的第一季度业绩后上涨4.5%，领涨。相比之下，Suzano（-2.7%）、Banco Bradesco（-1.3%）和Localiza（-6.4%）在令人失望的收益后下跌。

The Ibovespa rose 0.2% to close at 136,512 on Friday, its highest level since August, securing a 1% weekly gain for the São Paulo exchange and marking its fifth consecutive week of gains. The rally came as investors digested domestic inflation data and global optimism over trade negotiations fueled broader risk appetite. Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 5.53% in April, the highest since February 2023, remaining above the Central Bank’s 4.5% upper target for the sixth straight month. Meanwhile, global trade concerns eased as senior US and Chinese officials prepared for talks in Switzerland, while a US–UK trade agreement signed Thursday signaled a de-escalation in tariff tensions, improving sentiment toward Brazil’s export outlook. In corporate news, Itaúsa jumped 4.5% after posting strong Q1 results, leading gains. In contrast, Suzano (-2.7%), Banco Bradesco (-1.3%), and Localiza (-6.4%) fell following disappointing earnings.

5月份，10年期巴西政府债券的收益率降至13.9%左右，为五个月来的最低水平，因为货币政策信号、稳健的外部平衡和贸易战风险的缓解降低了投资者要求的期限溢价。4月份的通胀率为5.53%，与预测基本一致，这强化了央行的观点，即其最近将基准利率上调50个基点至14.75%可能标志着紧缩周期的顶峰，并为今年晚些时候的降息铺平了道路。从外部来看，美联储决定将美国利率维持在4.25-4.50%，同时发出稳定通胀的信号，这有助于缓和国债收益率，缩小巴西与美国的收益率差距，并吸引套利交易流入。与此同时，即将在瑞士举行的美中谈判和一项新的美英贸易协定缓解了人们对巴西大宗商品出口的关税担忧。4月份82亿美元的强劲贸易顺差和3.1%的工业产出年增长率进一步突显了外部实力，提振了对巴西债务的需求，并压低了长期收益率。

The yield on 10-year Brazilian government bonds fell to around 13.9% in May, a five-month low, as monetary policy signals, solid external balances, and easing trade-war risks reduced the term premium demanded by investors. April inflation came in at 5.53% year-on-year, broadly in line with forecasts, reinforcing the central bank’s view that its recent 50bps Selic hike to 14.75% may mark the peak of the tightening cycle and paving the way for cuts later this year. Externally, the Fed’s decision to hold US rates at 4.25–4.50%—while signaling stabilizing inflation—helped temper Treasury yields, narrowing the Brazil–US yield spread and drawing carry-trade inflows. Meanwhile, upcoming US–China talks in Switzerland and a new US–UK trade pact eased tariff concerns around Brazil’s commodity exports. A robust $8.2 billion April trade surplus and a 3.1% annual rise in industrial output further underscored external strength, boosting demand for Brazilian debt and pushing long yields lower.

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨约0.4%，突破13.7万大关，为8月以来的最高水平，使圣保罗交易所每周上涨约1.3%。投资者消化了国内通胀数据，全球对贸易谈判的乐观情绪提振了风险偏好，股市上涨。巴西4月份的年通胀率升至5.53%，为2023年2月以来的最高水平，连续第六个月高于央行4.5%的上限目标——就在Copom最近将Selic上调50个基点之后。与此同时，随着美国和中国高级官员准备在瑞士会晤，对全球贸易的担忧有所缓解，周四签署的一项美英贸易协议表明，关税紧张局势有所缓解，出口情绪有所上升。在企业新闻方面，Itaúsa在公布第一季度业绩后飙升超过4%，领涨主要金融股。另一方面，Suzano、Banco Bradesco和Localiza在各自业绩不佳后均下跌约2%。

The Ibovespa climbed around 0.4% to above the 137,000 mark on Friday, its highest level since August, setting up the São Paulo exchange for a weekly gain of roughly 1.3%. Gains came as investors digested domestic inflation data and global optimism over trade talks bolstered risk appetite. Brazil’s annual inflation rate rose to 5.53% in April, the highest since February 2023, and remained above the central bank’s 4.5% upper target for the sixth straight month—just after Copom’s recent 50 bps Selic hike. Meanwhile, concerns over global trade eased as senior US and Chinese officials prepared to meet in Switzerland, and a US–UK trade agreement signed Thursday pointed to easing tariff tensions, lifting sentiment around exports. In corporate news, Itaúsa surged over 4% after reporting its first-quarter results, leading gains across major financial stocks. On the other hand, Suzano, Banco Bradesco, and Localiza each dropped around 2% following their own lackluster earnings releases.

巴西的年通货膨胀率从上个月的5.48%上升到2025年4月的5.53%，为2023年2月以来的最高水平，连续第六个月高于巴西央行4.5%的上限目标。尽管联邦政府取消了食品关税以遏制通货膨胀，但食品和非酒精饮料的消费者价格加速上涨（3月份为7.81%对7.68%）。住房和公用事业（4.00%对3.84%）、其他个人支出（5.75%对5.28%）、家居用品和维修（2.49%对1.69%）以及服装（4.01%对3.53%）的通货膨胀率也有所上升。另一方面，运输业的通胀放缓（5.49%对6.05%）。与上月相比，巴西CPI上涨了0.43%。

The annual inflation rate in Brazil rose to 5.53% in April 2025 from 5.48% in the previous month, the highest since February 2023, to remain above the Central Bank of Brazil's upper target of 4.5% for sixth consecutive month. Consumer prices accelerated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.81% vs 7.68% in March), despite the Federal Government's removal of food tariffs in an attempt to tame inflation. Inflation also rose for housing and utilities (4.00% vs 3.84%), other personal spending (5.75% vs 5.28%), household goods and repairs (2.49% vs 1.69%), and clothing (4.01% vs 3.53%). On the other hand, inflation slowed for transportation (5.49% vs 6.05%). From the previous month, the Brazilian CPI rose by 0.43%.