巴西IBOVESPA股指 (iBovespa) 加自选

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率突破5.42，回落至8月12日的近一年高点5.39，此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔暗示9月杰克逊霍尔可能降息，导致美元大幅下跌。DXY的疲软，再加上巴西-美国收益率差距仍然很大，因为Selic仍为15%，使短期结转至雷亚尔更具吸引力，并将资本撤回当地市场。然而，政治和财政风险继续笼罩着前景。最高法院关于外国法律不适用于国内的裁决被广泛解读为加剧了巴西与美国之间与马格尼茨基相关制裁和华盛顿对巴西商品征收50%关税的僵局，引入了法律不确定性，使风险溢价居高不下。

The Brazilian real strengthened past 5.42 per US dollar, moving back toward the near one-year high of 5.39 seen on August 12th as the dollar slid sharply after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled the possibility of a September rate cut at Jackson Hole. That DXY weakness, paired with a still-wide Brazil US yield spread because the Selic remains at 15%, made short-term carry into reais more attractive and drew capital back into local markets. However, political and fiscal risks continue to cloud the outlook. A Supreme Court ruling that foreign laws do not apply domestically was widely read as hardening the Brazil US impasse tied to Magnitsky related sanctions and Washington’s 50% tariff package on Brazilian goods, introducing legal uncertainty that keeps risk premia elevated.

巴西10年期政府债券收益率升至14.1%以上，创下三周新高，原因是新的财政压力和持续的货币刚性，尽管美国收益率有所下降。市场对债务轨迹的升级和财政部的预测做出了反应，这些预测显示未来几年公共债务总额将显著增加，这提高了投资者对巴西长期债券的长期溢价需求。巴西利亚的“主权巴西”措施通过新的信贷额度和对出口商的税收减免增加了或有负债。至关重要的是，央行将利率保持在15%，并表示如果通胀风险持续存在，准备保持政策，这一立场将使实际利率保持在高水平，并限制美国收益率下降对巴西长期的影响。巴西与美国僵局的法律和政治发展进一步削弱了人们对近期财政整顿的信心。

The 10-year Brazilian government bond yield rose above 14.1%, marking a three-week high driven by renewed fiscal pressure and persistent monetary rigidity even as US yields eased. Markets reacted to an upgraded debt trajectory and Treasury projections that show a marked rise in gross public debt over the coming years, raising the term premium investors demand for long-dated Brazilian paper. Brasília’s "Sovereign Brazil" measures have added contingent liabilities through new credit lines and tax relief for exporters. Crucially the central bank has kept the interest rate at 15% and signalled readiness to hold policy if inflation risks persist, a stance that keeps real rates high and limits the pass-through from falling US yields into Brazil’s long end. Legal and political developments in the Brazil-US impasse have further weakened confidence in near-term fiscal consolidation.

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨2.1%，徘徊在13.7万美元上方，追随全球市场，此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，由于美国劳动力状况疲软，9月份可能降息。美国降息通常会缓解全球金融状况，削弱美元，并支持大宗商品和新兴市场。在巴西，政治和与美国的贸易争端仍然是焦点。主要银行（Itaú+1.9%，Banco do Brasil+1%）、淡水河谷（+1.5%）、零售商（Azza+2.6%，Magazine Luiza+3%）和巴西国家石油公司（+0.1%）上涨。

The Ibovespa jumped 2.1% to hover above 137,000 on Friday, tracking global markets after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a possible rate cut in September amid softening labor conditions in the US. A US rate cut typically eases global financial conditions, weakens the dollar, and supports commodities and emerging markets. In Brazil, politics and the trade dispute with the US stayed in focus. Major banks (Itaú +1.9%, Banco do Brasil +1%), Vale (+1.5%), retailers (Azza +2.6%, Magazine Luiza +3%), and Petrobras (+0.1%) advanced.

周五，Ibovespa指数上涨0.7%，收于135500点附近，与全球市场走势一致，投资者正在等待美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的演讲，以了解美国货币政策的信号。鲍威尔的言论受到特朗普总统的批评，引发了人们对美联储独立性的担忧。7月份美国生产者价格走强也减少了对9月份降息的押注。在国内，政治和与美国的贸易争端仍然是焦点。主要银行（Itaú+0.1%，Banco do Brasil+1.2%）、淡水河谷（+0.1%）和零售商（Azza+0.3%，Magazine Luiza+1%）上涨，而巴西国家石油公司（-1.2%）下跌。

The Ibovespa gained 0.7% to trade near 135,500 on Friday, in line with global markets as investors awaited Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for signals on US monetary policy. Powell’s remarks are under close watch amid criticism from President Trump, raising concerns about Fed independence. Stronger US producer prices in July also trimmed bets on a September rate cut. Domestically, politics and the trade dispute with the US remained in focus. Major banks (Itaú +0.1%, Banco do Brasil +1.2%), Vale (+0.1%), and retailers (Azza +0.3%, Magazine Luiza +1%) rose, while Petrobras (-1.2%) declined.